[/quote]Don't get me wrong, we're still learning too. [/quote]
Absolutely, there is always something new to learn with the weather. If you are a trained met, then chances are you have most of the main principles of meteorology down-pat. But still, forecasters are challenged to take those principals and apply them to real-life weather situations. When we have weather phenomenons, that is when more learning occurs. One way or the other, learning will occur.
Something Irking me
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Kevin_Wx wrote:
Absolutely, there is always something new to learn with the weather. If you are a trained met, then chances are you have most of the main principles of meteorology down-pat. But still, forecasters are challenged to take those principals and apply them to real-life weather situations. When we have weather phenomenons, that is when more learning occurs. One way or the other, learning will occur.
So true. Learning occurs on a daily basis...whether it is learning about the atmosphere, tropics or just about the computer programs purtaining to weather. We never stop learning. Everyone coins the phrase "you learn something new EACH and EVERY day."
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Exactly, Kevin Wx.
You hit the nail right on the head. My concerns are about osme in the public being unassuming. During a major hurricane situation (I was in S Fla during Michelle 2 years ago), things get very stressful and people don't always make the best of decisions. Last year during Hurricane Lili, someone used forecasts (not mine, but others) form the TWC board during Lili and nearly died due to others wishcasting the storm into Florida. GO wishcasts all the time and there will likely be unfortunate repeats of the above scenario if he continues in the manner in which he is currently forecasting
You hit the nail right on the head. My concerns are about osme in the public being unassuming. During a major hurricane situation (I was in S Fla during Michelle 2 years ago), things get very stressful and people don't always make the best of decisions. Last year during Hurricane Lili, someone used forecasts (not mine, but others) form the TWC board during Lili and nearly died due to others wishcasting the storm into Florida. GO wishcasts all the time and there will likely be unfortunate repeats of the above scenario if he continues in the manner in which he is currently forecasting
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I'm all in favor of nonsense like Great One being banned. But sometimes it seems that some of the rest of us inflate our importance and relevance in the tropical world. Some here and elsewhere also think they know it all. You guys know me. I've been on CFHC for 3 or 4 years, and I track storms with all of you. But it runs the gammut from the lower end young guys to the older guys who think they have all the answers. What we're really a part of is a group of tropical weather fans. Whether it's due to past experiences or just the excitement/anxiety that comes from living in the tropical alleys, that's just the way it is.
Obviously I have no disrespect for the moderators, because I enjoy seeing you guys every year around the web. I consider most of you my hurricane buddies on the web. And personally, I like what has become of this site. Cycloneye reaches the edges of the web to find great information, and that's one of the reasons I like coming over here. Also I like Kevin even though he's a Bucs fan. Heh. But let's don't get too carried away with this topic because we're all somewhat guilty of doing the same thing. Even at the NHC, they're a little guilty. We've all seen them change forecasts by the advisory number to coincide with what we're seeing on rad or sat.
Now I surely don't proclaim to know it all. I leave that to the real experts (who obviously don't know it all either). But my years of living in New Orleans have taught me a thing or two about the unpredictable nature of storms, and I think most of you appreicated me taking on the 3 heavyweights for errors in their forecasts last year (Dr. Gray, Dr. G. Gray and Joe Bastardi). But I'm not going to kid anyone into believing I'm some kind of guru myself. I'm just a fan like the rest of you guys - something we should keep in perspective.
Steve
Obviously I have no disrespect for the moderators, because I enjoy seeing you guys every year around the web. I consider most of you my hurricane buddies on the web. And personally, I like what has become of this site. Cycloneye reaches the edges of the web to find great information, and that's one of the reasons I like coming over here. Also I like Kevin even though he's a Bucs fan. Heh. But let's don't get too carried away with this topic because we're all somewhat guilty of doing the same thing. Even at the NHC, they're a little guilty. We've all seen them change forecasts by the advisory number to coincide with what we're seeing on rad or sat.
Now I surely don't proclaim to know it all. I leave that to the real experts (who obviously don't know it all either). But my years of living in New Orleans have taught me a thing or two about the unpredictable nature of storms, and I think most of you appreicated me taking on the 3 heavyweights for errors in their forecasts last year (Dr. Gray, Dr. G. Gray and Joe Bastardi). But I'm not going to kid anyone into believing I'm some kind of guru myself. I'm just a fan like the rest of you guys - something we should keep in perspective.
Steve
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I agree with all that has been said today, as well.
Last Hurricane Season I was giving my ideas (on TWC's Tropics Forum) like many of us here, interested in tropical meteorology. I certainly hope it wasn't me who caused a problem with a life threatening situation with Hurricane Lili. If someone specifically said something the wrong way without meaning to, that wasn't said on purpose.
"GreatOne" doesn't have any basis and just forecasts what he wants, that is obviously uncalled for... I agree with Derek, lives could be at risk with the possible forecasts "GreatOne" may claim on being 'even close to accurate.'
Last Hurricane Season I was giving my ideas (on TWC's Tropics Forum) like many of us here, interested in tropical meteorology. I certainly hope it wasn't me who caused a problem with a life threatening situation with Hurricane Lili. If someone specifically said something the wrong way without meaning to, that wasn't said on purpose.
"GreatOne" doesn't have any basis and just forecasts what he wants, that is obviously uncalled for... I agree with Derek, lives could be at risk with the possible forecasts "GreatOne" may claim on being 'even close to accurate.'
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Sun May 04, 2003 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Agree 100% with Steve on that statement even the best forecaster around has some mistakes and agree 100% on Kevins statement as everyday you learn something new about the weather and all it's factors.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
There is so much that is unknown about hurricanes. Many things are still being discovered and many mroe will be with the new technology (new computer programs, new sat technology and new recon capabilities). Even the very best of the best (which I am a long way from becoming) has a lot to learn yet about tropical cyclones
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