rainstorm wrote:i am not sure ana forming was a good sign. now we have a second low off ga, though probably not tropical. lets hope we dont have another season of very weak development north of 30. i will make my forecast around 01jun
I don't know--we don't have so much subtropical activity in La Nina years. On top of that, we have what could possibly be a more favorable eastern Atlantic and a stronger ATC than last year. One thing is for sure, and that is that the development that does take place this year will be more intense than what we had last year.
We may not see the full benefits of these more favorable until August.
Right on the points Cycloneye! A great forecast! Does'nt has to be long to be complete. You went tru all the points, favorable ones and unfavorable for the season also. Very easy to read indeed!! Congratulations. My numbers for this season are 13, 7, 3, but as the majority of member are thinking I also think that I will be short on my numbers. This season as I am looking to it right now may be more active than we are expecting. The only factor that appear to be inhibiting cyclone formation is the QBO and with neutral to la nina conditions and the active thermohaline circulation bringing warm waters to the tropical Atlantic into the African coast, adding the conditions of the Azores high for this upcoming season I consider this season to be a dangerous one with the risk of 2 or more major hurricanes coming from the far eastern Atlantic, so the Islands must be aware and the east US coast as well the Florida peninsule also.
