Low may be forming around 10n-81w

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cycloneye
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Low may be forming around 10n-81w

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2004 6:54 pm

CARIBBEAN IS BEING AFFECTED BY TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.. THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W AND DISTURBED WEATHER
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
75W-79W AND S OF 12N W OF 79W. THESE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM JUST W OF JAMAICA TO COSTA
RICA. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A BROAD LOW COULD BE
FORMING NEAR 10N81W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WITH THE NEARBY ITCZ ALSO PROVIDING A KICK
TO THE CONVECTION. THIS WHOLE AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING PUSHING
EVERYTHING IN A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL ELY DIRECTION THIS WEEK.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Nov 07, 2004 9:06 pm

DIVERGENCE ALOFT SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WITH THE NEARBY ITCZ ALSO PROVIDING A KICK
TO THE CONVECTION. THIS WHOLE AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING PUSHING
EVERYTHING IN A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL ELY DIRECTION THIS WEEK.


Bold print 1 - baroclinicity
Bold print 2 - baroclinicity ...
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Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Sun Nov 07, 2004 9:07 pm

Quit being so negative SF!!!! LOL :cry: :cry: :cry:
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Guest

#4 Postby Guest » Sun Nov 07, 2004 9:36 pm

The easterly push would indicate that the GFS is on target!! This would keep the ridge trough ridge setup in place allowing the area of interest to move north and northeast along the trough.
Still I'm going to watch it!
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Sanibel
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#5 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 07, 2004 10:02 pm

The way I read it EPAC's got a pull on it and it's going that way. Game over for any Caribbean formation...
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george_r_1961
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#6 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon Nov 08, 2004 12:46 am

Looks like a baroclinic type set up to me with little to no chance of tropical cyclone formation. Lets put the 2004 season to rest.
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