Tropical Cyclone Manou makes landfall at Madagascar

[cycloneye]

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh2803.gif

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

Looks very organized and all the enviroment factors are favorable for rapid intensification to a major cyclone so let's watch this system as it comes closer to Madagascar.But the only thing to watch is an interesting system close to this cyclone to see what effects being so close it may have on this.

[Aslkahuna]

the forecast track and the intensification trend comes together as indicated, then Madagascar could definitely be in for a spot of bother. The alert on the disturbance NW of TC28S (Manou) has been cancelled as it is being absorbed into the larger system.

Steve

[cycloneye]

The area that this cyclone may threat Madagascar is the northeast corner but let's wait and see about what track it takes.

[cycloneye]

Well at least the good news is that it has not increased in intensitie as some shear is in the area and it has not organized as forecasted but the bad news is that it has the track towards the northeast part of Madagascar and the only thing I hope is that it doesn't make landfall more than a cat 1 as all indications are that at least it wont be a major cyclone making landfall.

[Amanzi]

[cycloneye]

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh2803.gif

Great news for Madagascar as Manou is weakening as shear is not letting it organized so it will only be a rain event for that area and not a wind event as it weakens more so after first thought to be a major cane going to Madagascar now a TD may be what may be left by the time it makes landfall.

[ColdFront77]

Wow, rapid weakening with Manou. The system had the potential to become at least a category one storm and now it may only be a Tropical Depression when it reaches Madagascar...

[Aslkahuna]

was finalled out by JTWC at 1500Z.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

JT jumped the gun on finalling out TC28S as they have reinstated the storm as a 40kt system 215 NW of Mauritius. It's expected to make landfall on Madagascar in about 48 hours with little change in intensity.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Well Steve they had the forecast for this system wrong from the start as they went to over 115 mph at one point but then backed off bigtime on the intensitie.

[cycloneye]

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh2803.gif

First they had this system going to over 115 mph,then they lowered bigtime and almost to a TD before landfall and now they increase the winds before landfall as this system has gone up and down in intensity as it moves towards Madagascar.The bottomline for that area is plenty of rain and winds from the range of 40-60 mph as it makes landfall.

[Aslkahuna]

has the storm at 55kt and expected to peak at 60kt before coasting in on the east coast of Madagascar. Some interaction with the island is already taking place.

Steve

[cycloneye]

This tenasious cyclone will emerge and reintensify in the south indian ocean after it weakens when it makes landfall today.

[OuterBanker]

Impressive IR's on Manou, looks much worse than reality (great blob photos though). Most models have a moster brewing for India in 120, this could be first news maker.

[Aslkahuna]

an easily visible eye on the IR before coasting in, if the storm doesn't get too far inland before coasting out it could crank up to a reasonable intensity as it recurves and before it goes ET on us.

Steve

[cycloneye]

The latest is that the cyclone is moving parrarell to the coast and later it will curve back to open waters and intensifie a little but after that shear will increase causing the weakening of the system after 3 days.