Carib Disturbance

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Derek Ortt

Carib Disturbance

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun May 11, 2003 1:31 pm

Not much to it. As for any low, right now it is based upon satellite imagery near 10N and 80W. This does places it out of the shear and it does appear as if a UL ridge is building. Lets wait and see if this does in fact persist and not move over land during the next 24-48 hours. I it can eprsist over the water, then maybe we will have something to talk about.

As an aside, I will have NWHHC ready by late Wednesday to start releasing outlooks (Atlantic and EPAC begin at 0000 UTC, May 15, CPAC on June 1) and the graphical versions of any active storm forecasts. I'll let everyone know when I have the sample storm graphics ready to be viewed
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 11, 2003 1:43 pm

The key for it to survive and develop is that it mantains over water and persist for 24 hours and then we will see what happens.
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Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Sun May 11, 2003 2:03 pm

Chances are that the low will move inland. If it doesn't, then we could be talking about a different story. But that is highly unlikely at this point.
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Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Sun May 11, 2003 2:30 pm

It isn't that out of the ordinary; persistent little SW Caribbean blobs in May are not unheard of. This particular one is fighting against moderate westerly shear, and will likely drift into central America in the coming days without any development. However, as stated, there is still a chance it will remain over water for several days. Add the fact that some models show a decrease in shear, then maybe...just maybe, this will slowly organize.
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Kevin_Wx

#5 Postby Kevin_Wx » Sun May 11, 2003 2:41 pm

Supercane wrote:It isn't that out of the ordinary; persistent little SW Caribbean blobs in May are not unheard of. This particular one is fighting against moderate westerly shear, and will likely drift into central America in the coming days without any development. However, as stated, there is still a chance it will remain over water for several days. Add the fact that some models show a decrease in shear, then maybe...just maybe, this will slowly organize.


I second that.
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ColdFront77

#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun May 11, 2003 3:11 pm

Nice... at least we have something to talk about in the Tropical Atlantic. :)
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#7 Postby wx247 » Sun May 11, 2003 4:28 pm

Looks like it will move inland, but I am not 100% sure.
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Rainband

#8 Postby Rainband » Sun May 11, 2003 4:44 pm

One thing is for sure, this year is gonna be an Interesting year!!!! :wink:
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#9 Postby wx247 » Sun May 11, 2003 5:01 pm

That is most likely true Johnathan
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 11, 2003 6:50 pm

You got it right rainband.
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Rainband

#11 Postby Rainband » Mon May 12, 2003 9:41 am

We shall see!!! :roll: :wink:
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#12 Postby rainstorm » Mon May 12, 2003 10:04 am

with the pressures high in the atlantic basin and low in the pacific, this will move into the pacific.
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 12, 2003 1:46 pm

The system has moved inland over centralamerica so nothing will happen in the caribbean but as this crosses to the EPAC something may form in the next few days.
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