1030+ already for the azores

[Derek Ortt]

Was looking at the models this afternoon for some pressure readings for the SW Carib, and just happened to notice the Azores being above 1030+mb. This means one of two things. Either the monsoon trough will be supressed a little far to the south, meaning it better be stronger than average to make up for the coriolis deficiency, or everything whacks the Carib hard. This would seem to push the start of the Cv season back a little though, if this does persist. Something interesting to watch

[rainstorm]

yep, looks very similar to last season. a very weak cv season with a bunch of weak so-called storms north of 30. may is a good correlation to the heart of the season for the azores high. not a good sign

[Steve]

>>yep, looks very similar to last season. a very weak cv season with a bunch of weak so-called storms north of 30. may is a good correlation to the heart of the season for the azores high. not a good sign

What are you saying rainstorm? There weren't a bunch of weak so-called storms north of 30 last year - only 2 or 3 I think. And saying it's 'not a good sign' means what? No killer hurricanes? Last year was awesome. We got 4 tropical holidays here in N.O. at 29.9 btw. and rain from 7 different systems (including former EPAC action). If this year is anything like last year, which I'm not sure it's going to be, I'm looking forward to it already.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Steve

[cycloneye]

Remember that there are fluctuations up and down in the azores high all the time so if it is strong now it may not be so in the comming weeks but the best thing to do is watch it and see if the fluctuations persist or if it is a trend towards very high pressure.

[rainstorm]

as far as close to or north of 30 last year.
these were some of the weak ones.
a storm?
bertha
cris
ed
faye
gustav
h
joesephine

[Derek Ortt]

Weak systems

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Edouard (brief flare up due to bursting)
Fay (not even sure if it was ever a TC as recon had problems finding a closed low)
Hanna
Josephine

Those were TS's in name only. Most, especially Edouard, were nothing more than naked circs. I can stand under a garden hose and have a ceiling fan blowing and get worse conditions than Edouard gave

[rainstorm]

cool derek

[Kevin_Wx]

yep, looks very similar to last season. a very weak cv season with a bunch of weak so-called storms north of 30. may is a good correlation to the heart of the season for the azores high. not a good sign

When and where did you hear that May is a good correlation for Azores High pressures during the peak of the season? Last time I checked, March was the preferable time to judge AH values. We'll see. And if we do have another "dud" of a CV season, it DOES NOT mean that many storms will form north of 30. RS, let's just say this--if you peg this season, you are one hell of a seasonal forecaster. But I think you are forgetting that we are entering a neutral/La Nina pattern. Then again, ENSO doesn't do anything, does it?

[Kevin_Wx]

Was looking at the models this afternoon for some pressure readings for the SW Carib, and just happened to notice the Azores being above 1030+mb. This means one of two things. Either the monsoon trough will be supressed a little far to the south, meaning it better be stronger than average to make up for the coriolis deficiency, or everything whacks the Carib hard. This would seem to push the start of the Cv season back a little though, if this does persist. Something interesting to watch

You obviously didn't bother to look at the location of the Azores High--it is also further north than normal at this time. This would negate (somewhat) a southward supression of the Azores High.

[Anonymous]

Few things about the Azores High and last season...

1)March is the month where the Azores High values count towards the season. How strong it gets from now on is meaningless, TC influentially speaking. Besides, it will always fluctuate.

2)The Azores High has nothing to do with the amount of high-latitude storms. Period.

3)True, we did get several weak storms last year. Naked ones include Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Hanna, and during some of the time, Kyle. But guess what? We almost always see high latitude weak storms during El Nino phases.

4)El Nino this season? Ummm, not exactly. Thus, can we expect less naked high latitude storms? Yes. Can we expect more CV activity? Perhaps, but it depends largely on other crucial factors.

[Steve]

My bad. I was reading what you said literally "bunch of weak so-called storms north of 30." But I see what you're saying. There were only like 3 that formed north of 30 (maybe 4?), but several hovered or formed a little south (not much). There was some weak stuff, but we got hit with a blast from Eduard in Downtown New Orleans (as an impulse) on a Friday afternoon that flooded some streets. It was torrential for about an hour and a half. I'll take that. You guys know me, I'm psyched when I get to see any tropical activity whether it's wave-enhanced afternoon thunderstorms or a hurricane. That's why I have such great memories for 2002. It sits different with me.

Steve

[Steve H.]

This will not be a season where the ITCZ is suppressed like it has been in past years. If you want hurricane development, I think good ridging across the Atlantic in May is a good sign when we are transitioning out of a El Nino, to neutral or La Nina conditions. It allows the UL winds to lighten up and can translate into a peak time of warming for the waters across the Atlantic, particularly as the J/S across the CONUS pulls north. The Azores high will pulse, but I believe we will see a good number of storms develop in the Atlantic

[ColdFront77]

Great posts! I am looking forward to this year's Hurricane Season more and more... now just under 20 days until the season officially begins.