Update from noaa of ENSO shows change towards la nina

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 13, 2003 6:30 am

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... cordxy.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ssta_c.gif

This is a change from previous weeks when this same update from noaa showed yellow colors dominating but now the blue colors is the one that shows up so if noaa says this then el nino is not going to make a comeback this year because these noaa people are the best that study the oceanic temps and trends so folks we will have weak to moderate la nina during the season and we know what this will do to the atlantic basin.

rainstorm · #2 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue May 13, 2003 8:41 am

it looks like el nino wont be a factor this season

#3 Postby **Steve** » Tue May 13, 2003 12:57 pm

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/sst.html

Here's a new link (new to me) that shows the Atlantic side of water temps with high res. It's from the Ocean Sensor Group which is part of (I think) Johns Hopkins U).

Book mark it as the season gets closer.

Steve

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue May 13, 2003 1:22 pm

so if noaa says this then el nino is not going to make a comeback this year because these noaa people are the best that study the oceanic temps and trends so folks we will have weak to moderate la nina during the season and we know what this will do to the atlantic basin.

Just because NOAA calls for something doesn't make it a certainty. Remember how they kept calling for El Nino to linger throughout the year? I'm not in any way trying to diss NOAA; but remember, even the greatest forecasters on Earth bust.

Kevin_Wx · #5 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Tue May 13, 2003 2:00 pm

The CPC model has a SERIOUS problem with long-term consistency. For the next 3-4 months, it wants to keep developing a La Nina in the EPAC. But after that, it is like it looses it completely. I don't understand.

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue May 13, 2003 2:03 pm

Following NOAA's forecasts are better than following others not as reputable.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 13, 2003 2:08 pm

Yeah Kevin CPC has been very conservative all the time with this and as the grafic shows they go neutral by september but as this same grafic shows they changed to cool ENSO from warm that they were all the time but time will tell if they are right.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue May 13, 2003 4:31 pm

We're right in the middle of the March-June model forecasting barrier.

mf_dolphin · #9 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Tue May 13, 2003 4:46 pm

Any time a forecast looks to the longer time periods it's going to be a lot less accurate. The reason for this is simple, long range forecasts are based on trends, history and assumed parameters. Conditions change, predicted events don't happen exactly as predicted and you end up with different results. No biggie.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 13, 2003 4:52 pm

Yep same goes for the new 5 day forecast of TPC this hurricane season the more the time the margin of error gets larger but noaa will keep adjusting their forecast for ENSO as time goes by and we will see in the comming months if they will stay as they are now or if there will be changes.

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue May 13, 2003 5:10 pm

Part of the fun is watching the trends, history and assumed parameters, too.

HURRICANELONNY · #12 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Tue May 13, 2003 5:34 pm

I think you mean the present shows cooling in most NINO regions. No La Nina mentioned. The future on those graphs show Neutral not La Nina.

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue May 13, 2003 5:59 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:I think you mean the present shows cooling in most NINO regions. No La Nina mentioned. The future on those graphs show Neutral not La Nina.

Absolutely correct, ENSO is neutral at the moment. But I believe Cyc was saying how the current SSTAs are trending the direction of La Nina, not necessarily saying that one is present.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 13, 2003 6:11 pm

Yes Rob the trend is there right now but not nessesary that la nina will be in full force but changes can happen in the future from neutral that is now.

But one thing is for sure and that is el nino wont be present during the 2003 hurricane season.

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue May 13, 2003 6:55 pm

Any time a forecast looks to the longer time periods it's going to be a lot less accurate. The reason for this is simple, long range forecasts are based on trends, history and assumed parameters. Conditions change, predicted events don't happen exactly as predicted and you end up with different results. No biggie.

Yes, however the CPC model has had more forecasting errors than the majority of the other long range ENSO models.

Update from noaa of ENSO shows change towards la nina

Update from noaa of ENSO shows change towards la nina

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