Pre-season forecast numbers for 2003 Tropical Atlantic
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Anonymous
Bring Them On
Hi Gang. Bring on the Hurricanes. I am now prepared and ready for the big ones. I think this will be a strange season and we could all be in for some interesting stuff. The US had a crazy winter and all those tornados. This could be the year of the "Big Mama"..... 
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Derek Ortt
>>Changing the formula based upon inappropriate weights is not subjective. That is using appropriate statistical methods to correct an error. If there is one factor that has too much weight, it should be corrected
I agree with that. The weather is hardly an exact science. The more rationale they can garner and factor in, the better. But there is no "concrete math forumla" or at least not a static one. Where I disagreed with you was that you said there was no subjective decision making at all. Several years-prior forecasts specifically factored in subjective reasoning why the CSU team was going to deviate from the conclusions obtained through their factors and their analog years. If they ever get their archived site fixed, I'll show you what I was talking about. Btw, I like your site. I plan on visiting from time to time this season.
>>Hey Steve. TWW, Kevin and I have been doing similar landfall research over the past several months. We will be including landfall and regional predictions in our upcoming seasonal forecast. It'll be neat to compare and see if you come up with similar conclusions.
I know what you guys have been up to. I'm looking forward to your presentation. If nothing else, Kevin's got an A+ Science Project (probably State Fair quality) already completed. Bring it on (5/25/).
Steve
I agree with that. The weather is hardly an exact science. The more rationale they can garner and factor in, the better. But there is no "concrete math forumla" or at least not a static one. Where I disagreed with you was that you said there was no subjective decision making at all. Several years-prior forecasts specifically factored in subjective reasoning why the CSU team was going to deviate from the conclusions obtained through their factors and their analog years. If they ever get their archived site fixed, I'll show you what I was talking about. Btw, I like your site. I plan on visiting from time to time this season.
>>Hey Steve. TWW, Kevin and I have been doing similar landfall research over the past several months. We will be including landfall and regional predictions in our upcoming seasonal forecast. It'll be neat to compare and see if you come up with similar conclusions.
I know what you guys have been up to. I'm looking forward to your presentation. If nothing else, Kevin's got an A+ Science Project (probably State Fair quality) already completed. Bring it on (5/25/).
Steve
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