2 Invests at EPAC

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 14, 2003 6:00 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Well will this invest be another false alarm as the other 2 ones haved been or it will be the real thing and the first system at the EPAC?This was the same system that we were watching in the SW caribbean but crossed the centralamerican area to the EPAC.

Well shear is not strong and waters are warm there (82*F-84*F) and convection is deep and concentrated so let's see what will happen with this one but the season there begins officially tommorow.

#2 Postby **wx247** » Wed May 14, 2003 7:03 am

The convection looks good, but can it sustain itself? That is the question. Only time will tell.

#3 Postby **Steve** » Wed May 14, 2003 7:21 am

Looks like it's getting much better organized, but we'll have to wait for the visibles to come out later this morning. I saw the potential in that sucka on the other side of CA. Looks like the East Pack might start a day early as well.

Steve

jabber · #4 Postby **jabber** » Wed May 14, 2003 7:38 am

Will be nice to see it starting to pop.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 14, 2003 8:35 am

Well I am not crazy nor wako but I saw the invest at 6:55 AM at the navy site and that is why I posted this thread but looking at the site now it is not there :roll:

Well maybe they are testing the technology of that or fixing things there and appear later on but the area looks good convectionwise if you see the pic.

jabber · #6 Postby **jabber** » Wed May 14, 2003 8:40 am

It was up.. maybe a test, maybe someone a little to 'ready' for the season to start. First vis image still shows a concentrated blob. Lets see if it holds on today.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 14, 2003 8:41 am

Thank you jabber you saw it too.

OtherHD · #8 Postby **OtherHD** » Wed May 14, 2003 10:39 am

The Nogaps model showed a pretty strong system (about 40-45 kts) developing from this general area in the 48 hr range or so on yesterday, but today it is much weaker (Tropical Depression)...GFS doesn't show anything though...we shall see I guess.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 14, 2003 12:40 pm

Well the invest is on again apparently something technnical happened that it was off for a few hours.

This afternoon looks interesting with deep convection concentrated but time will tell if this will be Andres or not.

jabber · #10 Postby **jabber** » Wed May 14, 2003 12:55 pm

Looks like we might have something, Its been looking better organized all day. Gonna wait to see what the next quikscat shows

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 14, 2003 1:49 pm

There is a 1009 mb low with the tropical wave axis at 9n-98w so now there is a surface low with it but now let's see if it deepens in terms of lower pressures.

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed May 14, 2003 2:37 pm

The upper level shear pattern is downright hostile right now. In fact, you can tell just by looking at the system. The shear needs to improve some before we see any significant development from this.

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Wed May 14, 2003 5:34 pm

I agree you don't have to be an expert to see this thing is getting ripped apart..still something to watch..BTW I am not knocking experts..just saying I AM NOT ONE!!! :lol:

ColdFront77 · #14 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed May 14, 2003 6:13 pm

The EPAC Hurricane Season begins in 4 hours and 48 minutes, too. 8-)

Derek Ortt · #15 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed May 14, 2003 6:17 pm

That was an incredibly pointless invest. That thing never was organized at all and surely is not becoming organized at the present time

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 14, 2003 6:26 pm

Agree that this looks not well organized but at least it has a low pressure that the other 2 false invests didn't had.But it has a long way to go to develop however if shear fades (maybe).

ColdFront77 · #17 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed May 14, 2003 7:08 pm

True, Derek. Luis saw it and thought he would post it for others to see.

#18 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu May 15, 2003 11:20 am

Derek Ortt wrote:That was an incredibly pointless invest. That thing never was organized at all and surely is not becoming organized at the present time

Apparently someone didn't think it was "a pointless invest" as they chose to do it! I dare say that the people that make those decisions are more versed in the entire genre of Tropical Cyclones than you are at this time. I realize you are a student and work at RSMAS and probably know a lot more than I do, especially since you would obviously have access to information that I wouldn't, but I must say I think they do know what they are doing whether the invest becomes a storm or not. I also found some of the images I saw to be of interest with an obvious turning of winds around a center. And IMO the shear wasn't nearly as bad near the center of the circulation and clouds as it was far to the N and NEwhere it would have less effect on the possible development. JMHO.

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 15, 2003 7:56 pm

Looking at the latest pics it looks like it is trying to consolidate from the pop-corn type of clusters of thunderstorms into one blob of convection as shear is somewhat less in the area so let's see if this will go ahead and develop into a depression in the comming days.

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu May 15, 2003 7:58 pm

The INVEST isn't history! In fact, I give the low a better chance of developing today than I did yesterday afternoon. The potential for further development does exist within 72 hours.

2 Invests at EPAC

2 Invests at EPAC

It looks like a keeper

You are not nuts....

Shear is light and seas are warm

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