Worldwide Tropical Update: 26 February 2005

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 26 February 2005 at 00Z.

Invest (xxx/97S) (26/00Z)
Position: 12.1S 84.2E (845 mi W of Cocos Islands)
Movement: ***
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59"
Dvorak Est: T1.5/1.5

This invest is beginning to develop some and will be monitored for further intensification.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Percy (10F/20P) (26/00Z)
Position: 9.3S 173.9W (340 mi NNW of Apia, Samoa)
Movement: ESE at 14 mph
Winds: 105 mph
Pressure: 950 mb / 28.03"
Dvorak Est: T5.0/5.0

Percy continues to deepen as it forms a ragged eye. Strong divergence aloft persists near Percy while there is great outflow throughout. A trough deepening to Percy’s southwest will help deepen the cyclone further and, with little shear nearby, Percy is forecast to become a major cyclone near or to the northeast of the Samoan Islands. Those who are in the Cook Islands will also need to monitor the progress of Percy.

Invest (xxx/99P) (26/00Z)
Position: 8.7S 173.9E (360 mi ESE of Funafuti, Tuvalu)
Movement: ***
Winds: 15 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

This invest is fairly weak, but has a slight chance for development.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), to include official advisories from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers, go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

[MWatkins]

Looks like another close pass to Pago Pago...the Florida of the South Pacific this season it seems.

Do you know if there are any specific teleconnections between S. Pacific Storms and Atlantic systems later in the season...I wonder...

MW

[AussieMark]

if u want to compare the equivilant of what u guys would call a Major Hurricane.


2004 had 2
2003 had 5
2002 had 1
2001 had 1
2000 had 0
1999 had 1
1998 had 3
1997 had 3
1996 had 1
1995 had 0

[senorpepr]

Looks like another close pass to Pago Pago...the Florida of the South Pacific this season it seems.

Do you know if there are any specific teleconnections between S. Pacific Storms and Atlantic systems later in the season...I wonder...

MW

I don't know of any of hand, outside of any El Niño-related topics.

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 26 February 2005 at 21Z.

Moderate Tropical Storm Noname (15R/97S) (26/18Z)
Position: 14.1S 83.3E (875 mi SE of Diego Garcia)
Movement: SSW at 7 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 998 mb / 29.47"
Dvorak Est: T1.5/1.5

Expect slow intensification of 15R into a named cyclone over the next couple of days with slow southward movement. Hennie will be the name of this cyclone pending further development.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Percy (10F/20P) (26/18Z)
Position: 10.5S 170.8W (245 mi NE of Apia, Samoa)
Movement: ESE at 12 mph
Winds: 120 mph
Pressure: 940 mb / 27.76"
Dvorak Est: T6.0/6.0

Percy continues to fluctuate in intensity. While shear is low near Percy, expect conditions to worsen over the next few days. Percy will begin shifting toward the southeast over the next day or so with continued development toward a 150 mph cyclone by 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Noname (11F/xxx) (26/21Z)
Position: 21.0S 139.0W (730 mi ESE of Tahiti, French Polynesia)
Movement: E at 12 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 998 mb / 29.47"
Dvorak Est: T1.5/1.5

11F has slowly organized, therefore warranting a numbered system by Fiji. However, model guidance shows little in terms of further intensification. In addition, the US Navy is not giving this system an invest number.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), to include official advisories from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers, go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com