T numbers for disturbance at EPAC
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cycloneye
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The system is organizing as time goes by and TD status may be there for it tommorow.Josh this will pass well south of you so no effects from it.
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wx247
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Definitely looks slightly better organized. Probably TD tomorrow, but it might be Wednesday.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Derek Ortt
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
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It is a tropical depression as of right now
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2003
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED A DECENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER FROM THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH IS NOW 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS THE FIRST DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS OVER VERY WARM WATER BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CONSERVATIVE...AND ABOUT 10
KT BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE PERIOD. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE
NOGAPS MODEL TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 9.6N 103.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 9.7N 104.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 10.0N 106.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 10.5N 108.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 11.0N 110.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 12.0N 114.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 13.0N 118.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.0W 35 KT
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2003
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED A DECENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER FROM THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH IS NOW 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS THE FIRST DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS OVER VERY WARM WATER BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CONSERVATIVE...AND ABOUT 10
KT BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE PERIOD. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE
NOGAPS MODEL TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 9.6N 103.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 9.7N 104.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 10.0N 106.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 10.5N 108.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 11.0N 110.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 12.0N 114.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 13.0N 118.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.0W 35 KT
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