Should we be watching.....

[dixiebreeze]

These blobs in the S. Caribbean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[jlauderdal]

These blobs in the S. Caribbean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

you can watch but they aren't going to develop.

[wxcrazytwo]

According to accuweather, yes I know, but still they say the GOM and the carib are starting points for this time of the year.

[Brent]

That's just the favored areas... doesn't mean every blob in that area will become something.

[GalvestonDuck]

These blobs in the S. Caribbean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We can watch them and find out why they don't/won't develop, for future reference.

[x-y-no]

These blobs in the S. Caribbean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We can watch them and find out why they don't/won't develop, for future reference.

Some quick reasons why development is quite unlikely:

1) The blob off the Nicaragua/Honduras coast sits in about a 15 knot south-southeasterly steering flow with a moderate southwesterly upper-level flow aloft. The shear is not so high it would destroy a well-established system, but too much for something just starting up. Any convection which persists will eventually ride the steering flow north then NNE, but it's not going to have time to develop a closed circulation.

2) The other blob is in a somewhat better position with an upper-level anticyclone giving fair divergence. But again there's practically no low-level vorticity there as of now, and with about a 15 knot southeasterly steering flow, it's going to move out of that somewhat favorable area before any circulation can get going.

So the bottom line is too little room and too little time (given the steering) for something to start from scratch.

Jan

[GalvestonDuck]

These blobs in the S. Caribbean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We can watch them and find out why they don't/won't develop, for future reference.

Some quick reasons why development is quite unlikely:

1) The blob off the Nicaragua/Honduras coast sits in about a 15 knot south-southeasterly steering flow with a moderate southwesterly upper-level flow aloft. The shear is not so high it would destroy a well-established system, but too much for something just starting up. Any convection which persists will eventually ride the steering flow north then NNE, but it's not ging to have time to develop a closed circulation.

2) The other blob is in a somewhat better position with an upper-level anticyclone giving fair divergence. But again there's practically no low-level vorticity there as of now, and with about a 15 know southeasterly steering flow, it's going to move out of that somewhat favorable area before any circulation can get going.

So the bottom line is too little room and toolittle time (given the steering) for something to start from scratch.

Jan

Now THAT'S what I'm talking about! Thanks, Jan!

Guess I should have said, "We can watch them and discuss why they don't/won't develop, for future reference." You got my drift though. Well done.

[Rainband]

Agreed Duck, thats what S2K is all about. Great Job Jan.

[dixiebreeze]

Well, they're looking a bit better right now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[StormChasr]

Still way too much shear. Water temps are good for development, but upper air currents are not favorable.

[Brent]

LOL... the graphic changed.

[HurricaneBill]

You can look at them, but don't touch them.

[Anonymous]

Shear is at 20 kts in the caribbean. In Tampa, I was told by Stacy Stewart, that 20 kts is a HINDRANCE...but NOT a INHIBITOR.

[dhweather]

According to accuweather, yes I know, but still they say the GOM and the carib are starting points for this time of the year.

Where's the other R!!! Can't they spell anything right?

[GalvestonDuck]

*snicker* I actually got that. I remember.

[HurricaneBill]

Um......somebody should tell Accuweather that Brownsville is spelled B-R-O-W-N-S-V-I-L-L-E.

[dhweather]

*snicker* I actually got that. I remember.

I knew someone would.

And Brownsville - so sad......

[kevin]

Shear is at 20 kts in the caribbean. In Tampa, I was told by Stacy Stewart, that 20 kts is a HINDRANCE...but NOT a INHIBITOR.

A hindrance to an established system perhaps? An inhibitor to a developing system?

[Brent]

It's over Central America now. The ultimate killer.

[Windsong]

You can look at them, but don't touch them.