EPAC Flare-Up

#1 Postby **wx247** » Thu May 29, 2003 3:46 pm

Looks like an area of convection has flared up near 92W and 9N. My sat. loop isn't working right so I don't know if this has been persistent convection. Thoughts?

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Thu May 29, 2003 3:49 pm

I think the models saw this one coming..I think cyc posted something about it!! :roll:

I am not sure though..thanks for the info!!!

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 29, 2003 3:54 pm

That is the invest that was out 2 days ago that some models suggest some development so let's see what happens with that area.

#4 Postby **wx247** » Thu May 29, 2003 4:10 pm

Ok. Thanks for the info. Didn't realize there was an invest. :lol:

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Thu May 29, 2003 4:11 pm

wx247 wrote:Ok. Thanks for the info. Didn't realize there was an invest.

Thats ok we will let it slide this time!!!!! :lol:

weatherlover427 · #6 Postby **weatherlover427** » Thu May 29, 2003 8:59 pm

Where can you get a loop of this area at? I can't find any.

chadtm80 · #7 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu May 29, 2003 9:03 pm

Right on our site ;-)

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... ellite.htm

weatherlover427 · #8 Postby **weatherlover427** » Thu May 29, 2003 9:04 pm

Even better

Thanks Chad

chadtm80 · #9 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu May 29, 2003 9:06 pm

No Problemo bud!

weatherlover427 · #10 Postby **weatherlover427** » Thu May 29, 2003 9:09 pm

Looks good so far.

#11 Postby **Steve** » Fri May 30, 2003 4:50 pm

Interestingly enough, some of the models (GFS and ECMWF) are hinting that this convection might meander after 48 hours and eventually pull north across Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche. If any wave entrains energy up that way or perhaps convection getting enchanced from a rogue ULL to the west, we could be looking at an interesting scenario 8-12 days out.

Always remember that in a retrogressive & trof splitting pattern in June (eastern trofs setting up further and further west), EPAC stuff can easily get entrained into the Gulf. It doesn't usually happen when convection develops into something stronger, but if remains relatively disorganized, watch what happens next week.

Steve

#12 Postby **wx247** » Fri May 30, 2003 6:09 pm

Thanks for the info. Steve. Interesting indeed!

jabber · #13 Postby **jabber** » Fri May 30, 2003 7:39 pm

Show it making the move from west to east. The run this morning had the low much further north then it is. Lets see what happens.

Steve wrote:Interestingly enough, some of the models (GFS and ECMWF) are hinting that this convection might meander after 48 hours and eventually pull north across Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche. If any wave entrains energy up that way or perhaps convection getting enchanced from a rogue ULL to the west, we could be looking at an interesting scenario 8-12 days out.

Always remember that in a retrogressive & trof splitting pattern in June (eastern trofs setting up further and further west), EPAC stuff can easily get entrained into the Gulf. It doesn't usually happen when convection develops into something stronger, but if remains relatively disorganized, watch what happens next week.

Steve

chadtm80 · #14 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat May 31, 2003 7:56 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310947
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PDT SAT MAY 31 2003

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED 300 HUNDRED MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN/RRG

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 31, 2003 8:06 am

Ready for the test chad because it is looking a good candidate as time goes by.

EPAC Flare-Up

EPAC Flare-Up

Models do

Who is online