Most Vulnerable Coastline

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azskyman
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Most Vulnerable Coastline

#1 Postby azskyman » Sun Jun 01, 2003 7:55 am

Those of you who watch tropical weather like a lot of people watch baseball know where the greatest development has taken place over the years...and thus where the greatest risk along the coastline may be.

In your opinion, what areas along the east coast, then what areas along the Gulf coast are the most vulnerable to storm surge and Cat 3 or higher damage?
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#2 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Jun 01, 2003 1:07 pm

I would say Miami and NYC are most vulnerable on the East Coast with Tampa and New Orleans being the most vulnerable on the Gulf Coast.
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#3 Postby Arizwx » Sun Jun 01, 2003 3:50 pm

This is a terrific topic.The problem is this.POPULATION..newbies.I went thru Camille in '69 as you know.At the time,Biloxi,Gulfport,NW Panhandle of Fla and the W TX GOMEX Coast were just starting to boom.
Remember,Camille was a Carribean Queen,and was the VERY FIRST Cane to be handled exclusivley by the then brand new Natl' Hurricane Center.WOW..what a Christening!88-D was years away..WRS-57 was a reworked WW2 Scope system and Air Recon was handled by Lockheed Constellations(Connies).Tough old birds had a problem with Airfraame/Wing Seperation and Eng Failure..not unusual to have them fly the Circumfrance of the Eye..only to limp back on 3 eng..or even 2.
The P-3 Orion 'Submarine Hunters' from Moffet Field,Mt View Calif was the Navy's answer to the problem..terrific bird with Tail Sonar/Radar and NoseCone Avionics.4 Banger Vaiable Pitch TurboProps with squred edges chopped the rough air had the Muscle on the strong airframe.
The Gulf coast now from Brownsville,TX to Naples and Key West has approx 35 million pop...plus the Coast from Key West up thru DC has an additional 35million pop...within 200mi inland of the Coast.
This is a nightmare,as the areas have swelled in new people from the MidWest,etc whom do not understand the fury of a cat5..like Camille.Many are retirees..however,more and more families with children have flowed into the GOM/E ATL Coastal SunCoast regions..lest we forget the explosive growth of Hou/Gal/Corpus/So Padre since the 70s..remeber Allison?Just a 'Tropical Storm'.hmmmmm.Too much low elev development,
plus a lax knowledge of disaters historically have urged communities to become more proactive after Agnes('72.the Cat 1'Flooder from Fla to Penna)Hugo,Fran,Andrew,Allison...'Mitch'taught the US NAVY that 20,000 body bags were not enough to handle a stripped coastal latin region of vegatation..resulting in disasterous floods and mudslides.
Cuba was hit hard as well recently.'Keith' dam near destroyed Beliz's Tourism .
Brownsville Area has had torrential rains from little dying troppy systems to 30+in.
No area is safe basically..esp the Outer Banks of the Carolinas to Norfolk..
New Orleans..2.2mill metro is 5-8 ft below sea level in many areas,esp Dwtwn and the Vieux Carre(French Quater),the Levie System protects the Crecent City from the Miss and Lake Ponchartrain..however..can only pump out 1 in water per/hr!!!
Development,lousy construction(as we saw in MIA/Homestead in Andrew)
mailaise,new sunbirds and a distrust of some Wx outlets including the NHC
crying wolf over troppy waves to 3deg N Lat over 1200 mi SSE have folks in a funk.Local FEMA Agncies and Law Enforcement and more EXCELLENT local municiplity involvement have improved the situation..and I must say,the Wx Channel has done wonderful work with Dr Lyons and Jimbo Cantore..AND the late much loved 'John Hope'.Mr 'Jetstream' actually forecasted the Wx for the D-day Invasion!
The Native Indians had it right from the get go..how many Indian Settlemants were found on the Outer Banks???None.They had respect for the Big Wind called 'Mariah'.
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#4 Postby Rainband » Sun Jun 01, 2003 4:14 pm

If a major hit us here..The surge would flood everything..the gulf is real shallow near the coast and the water would just keep piling up..till I pulled out my rowboat :o A tropical storm by the way of Josephine was big problems for our coast back in 97..I believe and it wasn't even near us :roll:
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Derek Ortt

#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jun 01, 2003 4:21 pm

NYC by far due to the convex it is built upon. Another vilnerable city is Jacksonville due to the shallow water. Miami, surge wise, would have one of the lowest surges on the mainland due to the deep water just offshore. Andres showed us than a 145KT hurricane only brings about 17 feet of water, about the same for a cat 3 in the GOM
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#6 Postby azskyman » Sun Jun 01, 2003 6:13 pm

Curious how many coastal communities have REALLY tried to control growth around the potential risk. My suspicion is that many give in to hungry developers who can get top dollar for ocean view property.

Do you know of any metro areas where they actually have a strict building code in place to reduce risk of hurricane surge damage?
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#7 Postby Steve » Sun Jun 01, 2003 11:04 pm

az,

It depends what you mean by vulnerable. Many cities are vulnerable to different scenarios. If you look at population factors, obviously the more populous an area, the more people will be affected in the event of a landfalling IH. In the case of NYC or Long Island, the sheer volume of people in the metro makes them vulnerable. Same goes for Miami and and 100 miles of the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay area.

If you look at natural hazards, many cities have theirs. Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater is right on the water. An IH could literally empty the Bay into some of the surrounding areas. From Panama City Beach over to Ft. Walton/Destin, you have substantial residential and commercial development on the barrier islands. Barrier islands offer a natural buffer for landfalling storms, but since there is so much construction on them, the dollar loss could be enormous. Further east, in Apolachee (sp?) Bay - say St. George over to the Big Bend, they have areas of shallow sloping water bottoms that can build major storm surge problems with IH's.

For New Orleans, it's the fact that the city is below sea level and sinking annually. There used to be substantial marshlands between the city and the Gulf (about 60-80 miles south). However, due to severe coastal erosion and tha loss of barrier islands and swampland, the city is virtually surrounded by water. There's nowhere for it to go if it gets in through levee breaches. The city is like a bowl where the edges of the bowl are the leveee protection systems and floodgates. If the water comes over the top, forget it. A Cat 4 or 5 easily puts 20+ feet of water in the city and destroys it completely. A major problem in New Orleans is that it is estimated that approximately 100,000 people have no way in or out of the city and would be at the mercy of the storm or have to deal with last resort shelters. The last time they opened up the Superdome (Georges I think), some of these people actually broke seats and looted the Dome.

Some of the surrounding communities (northshore of Lake Pontchartrain) like Mandeville, Covington, Madisonville, and Slidell have issues with rain events. Some of those areas, while higher than New Orleans, are still surrounded by water. In the Mandeville area, you have all the tributaries that flow out of southern MS through LA into Lake Pontchartrain. You have the Tickfaw, Tangipahoa, Tchefuncte, Bouge Chitto, Bouge Falaya and many other rivers and creeks running through residential neighborhoods. These often crest above flood stage and run through neigbhorhoods. The more rain, the worse it gets.

Houston has a similar problem in that bayous run through the area. One need only look at TS Allison a few years back to see what heavy rainfall can do to the Houston area. This is amplified in the Golden Triange as many of the bayous and rivers run down to the coast.

Brownsville, TX/Matamoras, MX are vulnerable, like New Orleans, due to the large segment of poor people. Many simply can't get out in the event of an emergency.

Great topic.

Steve
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#8 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jun 02, 2003 8:04 am

Wonderful discussions gentlemen. All have very valid points! I don't think anyone has missed anything!!

IMO I must in principle agree with the NYC scenario due to, like Derek said, the shape of the basin it is in. The only saving grace here, if there is any, is the fact that storms in that area are generally quick moving as opposed to landfalling storms from the Outer Banks southward and all along the GOM coast.

Elsewhere, CAT3/Storm Surge worst scenarios are along the Carolina coasts and ESPECIALLY THE TAMPA/ST. PETE AREA. Also I would expand the NO scenario-A DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN, IMO, to include the MS GULF COAST which has EXPLODED with development and we know what Camille did there in 1969. Both DJ and I have seen that 1st hand.

One of the biggest losses due to Steve's scenario in the Hou/Gal area would be the BILLIONS, possibly TRILLIONS of dollars of factories, refineries, etc. which lay in the flood zones around Galveston Bay, not forgetting the many bayous Steve mentioned that would be backed up with the right approach of a CAT3 with tons of rain falling into non-draining basins(due to the SE wind and the surge piling up in the N and W reaches of the bay). In some areas closer to the coast surge maps show a CAT3 surge reaching literally several miles inland due to the low lay of the land.

Unfortunately, as each person has mentioned, my biggest fear is the fact that population in all of these areas has EXPLODED in the last 30 years. bringing into the picture literally TENS OF MILLIONS who are COMPLACENT, or even have no knowledge of the power of a Tropical Cyclone. If we ever have a quickly forming IH along any of these coasts the potential for loss of life is staggering. Why? Not enough time to properly evacuate or seek shelter, literally hundreds of thousands possibly in their cars on the roads trying to leave as the storm hits and water rises and winds increase quickly. Not a pretty thought!

None of the areas I know of have a heavily enforced code to minimize the damage caused by a surge that a Cat3 would generate. The best way to minimize this problem is to BAR HABITATION on the BARRIER ISLANDS and allow them to be what Mother Nature meant for them to be!! In most areas many do build their homes up on pilings with "disposable" storage or living areas below, but unless the homes are securely fastened to the piles wave action can still destroy them or lift them off their perch.
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#9 Postby bfez1 » Mon Jun 02, 2003 9:11 am

The New Orleans area is definitely very vulnerable. We are below sea level
and described as being a saucer. Many times the NHC has done specials about us explaining how dangerous a situation it will be if a Cat 3 or larger hits us coming up the mouth of the Mississippi river. Very scary scenario. We must be prepared to take action when necessary. Storm surge from one of these storms would completely put this city under water.
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#10 Postby azskyman » Mon Jun 02, 2003 7:14 pm

Of course, too, not only is there vulnerability to loss of life...but insurance company vulnerability too. The cost of insuring all those high rent places that exist along the coastline is tremendous. As we learned in Andrew and other, insurance companies cannot absorb all those losses.
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#11 Postby southerngale » Mon Jun 02, 2003 8:56 pm

Steve wrote:
Houston has a similar problem in that bayous run through the area. One need only look at TS Allison a few years back to see what heavy rainfall can do to the Houston area. This is amplified in the Golden Triange as many of the bayous and rivers run down to the coast.

Steve


I've heard that if a major hurricane (I'm guessing cat. 4 or 5) hit the Golden Triangle (Beaumont) directly, Beaumont would likely be under water. I remember this being talked about a few years ago but I don't remember the specifics. Does anyone know about this area?
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#12 Postby JetMaxx » Thu Jun 05, 2003 9:13 am

There are a lot of vunerable coastal areas, but three or four stick out in my mind as the most dangerous...based on population density, return frequency of major hurricanes, and vunerability to storm surge innundation..

#1 concern has to be the West Coast of Florida...from Pasco and Pinellas County southward to Collier County. The last major hurricane on this extremely vunerable coastline was Donna...43 years ago (and Tampa/St Pete hasn't suffered a direct hit since 1921!!). The population has exploded in the years since Donna...on a coastline that may see a 12-15' storm surge from a 960 mb/ 115 mph cat-3 in some areas. The potential of a storm surge catastrophe is alarming in this area...simply too many people that think it can't happen again, because they've lived there for 35-40 years and it hasn't.
The thought of a 130+ mph hurricane making landfall anywhere along this coast FROM the Gulf of Mexico scares me to death (coming across SoFla from the east or SE would be bad, but far less storm surge damage).

#2 - Greater New Orleans
1.4 millions people in an area near or below sea level; an area with a very shallow offshore slope...Betsy at 948 mb created a 12-15' storm surge, and WASN'T the worst case scenario. The thought of what type disaster a Hugo/ Carla sized cat-4 would cause is mind boggling (simply put, New Orleans would be destroyed....likely under water).

#3 - Florida Keys
Among the warmest waters in the Atlantic hurricane belt (30-32c in July/August)...but hasn't experienced a major hurricane since Betsy. 80,000 people living (and more visiting) a string of islands less than 10' above sea level...which would go under water in a 945-950 mb cat-3. With the extremely warm water and offshore Gulf Stream, hurricanes can literally explode overnight. Everyone in the Keys and Key West was EXTREMELY LUCKY with Georges in 1998. Next time they may not be so fortunate. 40% failed to evacuate the Keys...if Georges had explosively deepened to 945 mb or lower, IMO thousands would have drowned. In an area as vunerable as the Florida Keys, waiting for a hurricane warning might be too late....because hurricanes can deepen so rapidly over 30-31c SST!

#4 - Upper Texas Coast
Another very vunerable area....over 4 million people in metro Houston/Galveston. High storm surge potential...Alicia created a 10-12' storm surge at 962 mb (Carla @ 931 mb would have produced a 15-20' surge in the same area). Downtown Houston would likely see winds well over 100 mph in a cat-4 coming from the SE...125-150 mph in gusts (in 1961, Victoria estimated 140-150 mph gusts during hurricane Carla). We all witnessed the flood potential of metro Houston during even weak tropical storms...a large major hurricane would be far worse. Beaumont/ Port Arthur are in a similar situation...just not as much population and less return frequency of major hurricane landfalls than the Galveston-Freeport areas.

Those are the four most vunerable/ most dangerous IMO. There are many others that are a disaster waiting to happen....Miami/ Fort Lauderdale/ Palm Beach is a ticking economic time bomb.
Even a "weak" 115-120 mph cat 3 anywhere between Miami Beach and Palm Beach will IMO be more costly than Andrew (damage toll). A repeat of either the 1926, 1928, or 1947 category 4 will dwarf the damage Andrew caused (100+ billion IMO)...and threaten many lives.

The U.S. Northeast Coast is very vunerable and highly populated...a repeat of the 1938 Long Island Express (946 mb/ 130 mph) would be catastrophic. Any major hurricane into the NYC -New Jersey area would be devastating; as would a powerful hurricane making landfall in the Tidewater Virginia area (lower Chesapeake Bay/ Norfolk/ Virginia Beach --it happened in Sept 1944).

The Georgia and Northeast Florida coast (St Augustine to Charleston) is another scary scenario...based on knowledge of storm surge heights produced by killer hurricanes in the 1880-1898 era (August 1893 hurricane was about as intense as Hugo...and put many islands on the Georgia and lower South Carolina coast under water!....a 945 mb hurricane in 1898 produced a storm surge 19' deep on the Georgia coast...it would be just as bad at Jacksonville).

Along the Gulf Coast, we all know what recent major hurricanes have done....Camille, Carla, Betsy, Opal, Frederic, Elena, Eloise, Audrey, Celia, Alicia, and Beulah all caused severe damage in the areas they struck..... From Apalachicola to South Texas, any landfalling major hurricane means big trouble....but New Orleans and Houston/ Galveston are far more vunerable due to greater population density (and New Orleans being below sea level).

Please stay safe...and God bless!

Perry
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#13 Postby Amanzi » Thu Jun 05, 2003 10:42 am

A truly excellent discussion by all of you! I gained a lot of information from each and every post. :)
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#14 Postby Lindaloo » Thu Jun 05, 2003 1:37 pm

Biloxi and Gulfport MS are more vulnerable today than they were during Camille, Frederick or Elena. They now have miles and miles of waterfront casinos, motels and hotels located right on the beaches. Most of them sustained damage from Lily and Izzy last summer and they were just small potatoes compared to Camille, Frederick and Elena.

If those casinos had been there during the huge storm surge that we had with Camille they would be wiped out. They continue to build them right on the beach while my homeowners insurance soars through the roof.
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