MM5...Significant System in Gulf by Day 5??

[Anonymous]

Something to keep an eye on::::
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[gkrangers]

Develops a low off of Panama...tracks northwest towards and over the Yucatan and into the gulf.

[Scorpion]

Hmm interesting. This season seems off the chain and its only late June.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahooo come on Cindy come on!!!!

[Anonymous]

Well, I have said to myself this whole time, the ITCZ is about one month ahead of schedule...as seems the entire Atlantic basin. So, the pattern is almost like we are going into August, not July.

[gkrangers]

I can't wait to go back to college....September and a great met lab at my disposal... *drools*

[CA _Tracker]

Meth Lab?

[stormcloud]

Wasn't there a discussion in an earlier thread that some (all?) of the MM5 runs are processed at a higher resolution making it form these "phantom" storms?

[mobilebay]

Here is something very interesting! The 00Z ETA/NAM now develops some energy in the same area and closes a low off in the exact same spot in 84 hours. It originates just north of Panama at about the same time as the MM5. I know these are not considered the best models but with both of them agreeing, I'd say it is worth Watching. Here is the 84 hour ETA/NAM.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Also after looking at the GFS it also shows this feature but does not close it off. Brings it on the same basic path though, from Panama into the GOM.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The nam did better then the Gfs on Both Beatriz/Calvin by far. It forecasted them first. Not so bad...

Gfs/Cmc is trying to bring some energy through this area(Possible tropical wave)...It appears to be alot like what Bret did...But it could slit to the north this time. Something to watch.


Take a look at the Gfs 00z it forms a piece of energy over the west-central Caribbean. Then takes it north between Cuba/Yact.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation


The cmc forms it southeast of Jamaica then moves it west-northwest then northwest into the Gulf.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation


What is interesting is that system out over the central Atlantic...That will need to be watched closely.

[Thunder44]

There already seems to be some action brewing in the SW Carribean this storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 06z nam still shows a closed low/isobar at 84 hours. Look what it forecasts for the Eastern Pacifc. The last few runs have forecasted maybe even a tropical storm over the Eastern Pacifc.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_m.shtml

[skysummit]

Local met in NOLA did just mention it as a "blowup of t-storms overnight", and he also said no development anytime soon. Let's see if mother nature can prove them wrong!

[Thunder44]

Impressive blob in the SW Carribean. GFS develops low pressure there:

NE winds at buoy 40257
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

South winds in Barranquilla, Columbia
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/SKBQ.html

Broad area of low pressure?

Pressures are also a little low 1010mb to 1012mb

[skysummit]

Anyone looked at shear maps lately? What do they say?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear is 30 to 40 knots to the north. With a small area of upper high to the south of 5 to 10 knots. Not favable.

[skysummit]

Shear is 30 to 40 knots to the north. With a small area of upper high to the south of 5 to 10 knots. Not favable.

Ok, thanks Matt. Maybe it'll hold together for a few days until it's favorable.

[Derek Ortt]

36km is 33% less resolution than the GFS is ran at.

I have supicions at an 18km resolution run of the model... 36 really dont give you anything

[dhweather]

36km is 33% less resolution than the GFS is ran at.

I have supicions at an 18km resolution run of the model... 36 really dont give you anything

Derek - you are rather familiar with the MM5 - how much faith do you
have in it beyond 48-72 hours?

Mike - As your video said last night, and I just said in the SST thread,
if something gets into the GOM, expecially the western GOM, it will
have enough oceanic heat to let it run a long way. If the environment
is favorable, rapid intensification would be expected, should development
occur.

[Derek Ortt]

I have a lot of faith in it out to 120 hours. Doing some tests on Ivan to figure out the precise conditions that it behaves the best in.

Now, that said, I have <b>ZERO</b> faith in the FSU version. No point running it at 36km as GFS is 27km