1100AM Advisory

[drezee]

526
WTNT43 KNHC 041442
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE LOCATION
OF A CENTER...AND SOUNDING DATA FROM MERIDA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM
IS TILTED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. MY ADVISORY POSITION AND MOTION
ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY CONTINUITY...AND THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
IN THESE VALUES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER WILL REFORM NEAR
THE NORTH COAST OF THE PENINSULA. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WHEN IT MOVES OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES AND MOVES
INTO THE GULF...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HOSTILE
FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH THE STEERING REGIME DOES NOT LOOK TOO
COMPLICATED...DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT...RANGING
FROM TRACKS TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 20.7N 89.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 21.9N 90.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 23.6N 91.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 25.7N 93.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 30.5N 93.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/1200Z 33.0N 89.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING


$$