I think that the margin of error is around 300 miles but they haved made those 5 day forecasts inside their house for some years and now it will be the first time that it will be out to the public.
In my opinion it will be useful for maritime interests but it remains to be seen how the public will react to it.
Do you favor the 5 day forecast of NHC?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139131
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Do you favor the 5 day forecast of NHC?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
weatherlover427
-
Toni - 574
- Category 1
- Posts: 493
- Joined: Wed May 28, 2003 9:20 pm
- Location: W. Central Florida
I think this was an interesting article.
Caution! Hurricanes Ahead
By NEIL JOHNSON njohnson@tampatrib.com
Published: Jun 1, 2003
TAMPA - Sometime this hurricane season you may hear a TV newscaster announce a hurricane is five days from hitting Tampa.
That would be the new five- day forecast from the National Hurricane Center that debuts today at the start of the 2003 hurricane.
It replaces the three-day prediction you used to hear.
Before you get too alarmed remember that, in five days, the hurricane could be ravaging Havana or pounding Pensacola. Or it could be 370 miles away in the Gulf of Mexico. It might even be chugging hundreds of miles into the Atlantic Ocean.
That's how large the margin of error is in such a lengthy forecast - about as accurate as the three-day prediction was 15 years ago.
After testing the five-day forecast the past two seasons, but not making it part of the official advisories, the hurricane center is comfortable enough to make it the official prediction this year.
``The main concern is how it's presented on television,'' says Max Mayfield, director of the hurricane center.
``What we don't want to see is the hurricane symbol over Tampa or Miami Beach on day four or day five. And I really don't want to see it on day one, two or three, either.''
Who Will Benefit Most
The forecast is meant more for ships in port and Gulf oil rigs than for residents who don't need 120 hours to prepare for a hurricane.
``The U.S. Navy has been pushing us to do this since the mid-1990s,'' says Jack Beven, hurricane specialist at the Miami center.
Skippers need more than three days to move their vessels to sea or steam to a less threatened harbor. Oil rigs need as long as possible to evacuate workers.
For Joe Normal and his family, the extended warning might get their attention, and that is some benefit, state meteorologist Matthew Green says.
``What it does do is provide an extra two days for people to plan and prepare,'' Green says.
That's the main benefit Gary Vickers, head of Pinellas County Emergency Management, sees.
``It will give us more time to increase the public's awareness,'' he says.
But it does little for the officials who decide when to order evacuations.
``It's of no benefit to local emergency managers,'' says Larry Gispert, director of Hillsborough County's emergency management.
``We can't predict three days out, so five days is off the calendar.''
It might help people on the East Coast as the Atlantic hurricanes zip from across the ocean on a fairly predictable path.
But storms can sprout in the Gulf two days off the coast or bounce around like pinballs, making forecasting more difficult. And even a three-day forecast has too much potential for error to begin evacuations.
In 2001, Hurricane Gabrielle was forecast to be about 700 miles west of Tampa and heading toward Cedar Key.
In six hours, the forecast changed. It was heading toward Tampa, expected to arrive on a Friday night.
Instead, by Friday morning, the storm hit near Venice and was past Tampa by the afternoon, hours before the forecast a day earlier said it would hit the coast.
Not For Evacuations
With such wild swings in a storm's track only a day away, Vickers and Gispert don't see themselves using the longer forecast to order people from their homes.
Evacuation decisions are more likely made when the storm is 24 or 48 hours away, not 120, Gispert says.
Forecasters like Beven may have ample opportunity to use the five-day forecast this year. The hurricane center and William Gray, the University of Colorado professor who has issued predictions for 20 years, expect another busy hurricane season.
A busy six months would be nothing unusual considering the past five seasons have produced 68 storms - 18 more than would be expected in five average seasons.
But Mayfield says the number of storms isn't the most important factor.
``Whatever the numbers come out to be, don't focus on the numbers, because what really counts is whether a hurricane makes landfall and how strong it is at landfall,'' he says.
Hurricane Andrew struck in a quiet season, and 2000 and 2001 combined for 14 hurricanes, but none hit the United States, he says.
Late Season Threat
For residents along Central Florida's west coast, the time to keep that wary eye peeled for storms is the tail of the season.
``The ones we have to watch are in September and October,'' Gispert says.
During the first part of the season, the northwest corner of the Gulf is a nursery for hurricanes that often move toward Texas or Mexico.
By the meat of the season in August and September, the angry boiling masses of thunderstorms moving about every three days off Africa begin to build into the classic Cape Verde storms and march across the Atlantic.
As that hurricane factory winds down, water in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea is still simmering and ready to cook up storms.
They form in the Caribbean or in the Gulf off the Yucatan Peninsula, close enough to threaten our coastline in a few days.
Not that a hurricane couldn't hit the area any time between today and Nov. 30.
``It only takes one to make it a bad year,'' Gispert says.
Caution! Hurricanes Ahead
By NEIL JOHNSON njohnson@tampatrib.com
Published: Jun 1, 2003
TAMPA - Sometime this hurricane season you may hear a TV newscaster announce a hurricane is five days from hitting Tampa.
That would be the new five- day forecast from the National Hurricane Center that debuts today at the start of the 2003 hurricane.
It replaces the three-day prediction you used to hear.
Before you get too alarmed remember that, in five days, the hurricane could be ravaging Havana or pounding Pensacola. Or it could be 370 miles away in the Gulf of Mexico. It might even be chugging hundreds of miles into the Atlantic Ocean.
That's how large the margin of error is in such a lengthy forecast - about as accurate as the three-day prediction was 15 years ago.
After testing the five-day forecast the past two seasons, but not making it part of the official advisories, the hurricane center is comfortable enough to make it the official prediction this year.
``The main concern is how it's presented on television,'' says Max Mayfield, director of the hurricane center.
``What we don't want to see is the hurricane symbol over Tampa or Miami Beach on day four or day five. And I really don't want to see it on day one, two or three, either.''
Who Will Benefit Most
The forecast is meant more for ships in port and Gulf oil rigs than for residents who don't need 120 hours to prepare for a hurricane.
``The U.S. Navy has been pushing us to do this since the mid-1990s,'' says Jack Beven, hurricane specialist at the Miami center.
Skippers need more than three days to move their vessels to sea or steam to a less threatened harbor. Oil rigs need as long as possible to evacuate workers.
For Joe Normal and his family, the extended warning might get their attention, and that is some benefit, state meteorologist Matthew Green says.
``What it does do is provide an extra two days for people to plan and prepare,'' Green says.
That's the main benefit Gary Vickers, head of Pinellas County Emergency Management, sees.
``It will give us more time to increase the public's awareness,'' he says.
But it does little for the officials who decide when to order evacuations.
``It's of no benefit to local emergency managers,'' says Larry Gispert, director of Hillsborough County's emergency management.
``We can't predict three days out, so five days is off the calendar.''
It might help people on the East Coast as the Atlantic hurricanes zip from across the ocean on a fairly predictable path.
But storms can sprout in the Gulf two days off the coast or bounce around like pinballs, making forecasting more difficult. And even a three-day forecast has too much potential for error to begin evacuations.
In 2001, Hurricane Gabrielle was forecast to be about 700 miles west of Tampa and heading toward Cedar Key.
In six hours, the forecast changed. It was heading toward Tampa, expected to arrive on a Friday night.
Instead, by Friday morning, the storm hit near Venice and was past Tampa by the afternoon, hours before the forecast a day earlier said it would hit the coast.
Not For Evacuations
With such wild swings in a storm's track only a day away, Vickers and Gispert don't see themselves using the longer forecast to order people from their homes.
Evacuation decisions are more likely made when the storm is 24 or 48 hours away, not 120, Gispert says.
Forecasters like Beven may have ample opportunity to use the five-day forecast this year. The hurricane center and William Gray, the University of Colorado professor who has issued predictions for 20 years, expect another busy hurricane season.
A busy six months would be nothing unusual considering the past five seasons have produced 68 storms - 18 more than would be expected in five average seasons.
But Mayfield says the number of storms isn't the most important factor.
``Whatever the numbers come out to be, don't focus on the numbers, because what really counts is whether a hurricane makes landfall and how strong it is at landfall,'' he says.
Hurricane Andrew struck in a quiet season, and 2000 and 2001 combined for 14 hurricanes, but none hit the United States, he says.
Late Season Threat
For residents along Central Florida's west coast, the time to keep that wary eye peeled for storms is the tail of the season.
``The ones we have to watch are in September and October,'' Gispert says.
During the first part of the season, the northwest corner of the Gulf is a nursery for hurricanes that often move toward Texas or Mexico.
By the meat of the season in August and September, the angry boiling masses of thunderstorms moving about every three days off Africa begin to build into the classic Cape Verde storms and march across the Atlantic.
As that hurricane factory winds down, water in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea is still simmering and ready to cook up storms.
They form in the Caribbean or in the Gulf off the Yucatan Peninsula, close enough to threaten our coastline in a few days.
Not that a hurricane couldn't hit the area any time between today and Nov. 30.
``It only takes one to make it a bad year,'' Gispert says.
0 likes
-
mf_dolphin
- Category 5
- Posts: 17761
- Age: 67
- Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
- Location: St Petersburg, FL
- Contact:
-
PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5248
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
-
Derek Ortt
-
ColdFront77
It will be interesting to see how it is put into practice. The general public living in hurricane prone areas really needs to be well educated on the watches, warnings, how to prepare, when to evac, when not to. Two extra days are good and will hopefully get people aware of what's going on, but I'm not sure the general public really has given much thought to "what am I going to do?"
0 likes
-
JetMaxx
No problem Donna...I'm glad Luis posted this. I must have missed the other discussion..
I'm in favor of it simply because I firmly believe the general public deserves all the lead time that's available. We've had the technology of an "unnofficial" 120 hour forecast for two years now (anyone on the internet) with models such as the GFDL, NOGAPS, and AVN/ GFS...among others.
One point I wish to make. Looking at hurricane history...some of the most deadly and devastating hurricanes didn't even EXIST five days before U.S. landfall. On August 12, 1969...what would become cat-5 hurricane Camille was an inverted "V" tropical wave crossing the SW Atlantic/ Leeward Islands....on August 28, 1935, five days before the Labor day hurricane's 200 mph carnage in the Florida Keys....there was NOTHING (except possibly a weak low pressure well east of the central Bahamas). On the morning of August 19, 1992..most here (including me) would have scoffed at any suggestion the pitiful, sheared beyond belief tropical storm. Andrew would ever become a hurricane...much less a 160+ mph cat-5 that would change the lives of many Dade County, Florida residents forever
Where these 120 hour forecast will come in handy will be Cape Verde hurricanes...and for the marine/ military community. They'll also give us hurricane enthusiasts more things to chat and post about...make the discussions more lively, and give those living in vunerable areas more time to become aware there IS a threat, and to remain alert.
Perry
I'm in favor of it simply because I firmly believe the general public deserves all the lead time that's available. We've had the technology of an "unnofficial" 120 hour forecast for two years now (anyone on the internet) with models such as the GFDL, NOGAPS, and AVN/ GFS...among others.
One point I wish to make. Looking at hurricane history...some of the most deadly and devastating hurricanes didn't even EXIST five days before U.S. landfall. On August 12, 1969...what would become cat-5 hurricane Camille was an inverted "V" tropical wave crossing the SW Atlantic/ Leeward Islands....on August 28, 1935, five days before the Labor day hurricane's 200 mph carnage in the Florida Keys....there was NOTHING (except possibly a weak low pressure well east of the central Bahamas). On the morning of August 19, 1992..most here (including me) would have scoffed at any suggestion the pitiful, sheared beyond belief tropical storm. Andrew would ever become a hurricane...much less a 160+ mph cat-5 that would change the lives of many Dade County, Florida residents forever
Where these 120 hour forecast will come in handy will be Cape Verde hurricanes...and for the marine/ military community. They'll also give us hurricane enthusiasts more things to chat and post about...make the discussions more lively, and give those living in vunerable areas more time to become aware there IS a threat, and to remain alert.
Perry
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: CyclonicFury, SFLcane, Stratton23 and 181 guests