Winds are blowing in GOM as bouy 42002 shows

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42002

Pressures are steady as I said in the tropical update but it is blowing at a brisk pace there but no surface low so dar detected there but being the time of year in early june the GOM is favored so let's watch.

[vbhoutex]

I was noting that also Luis. That buoy is almost right under the large concentrated area of convection, probably in the middle of a storm. However if I look at that buoy later today and the wind direction is the same and the winds are continuing at the 30-40mph pace they are showing this am, then it will definitely be time to do further investigating to try and determine what, if anything, could be brewing. Nothing, as said in the tropical update, indicates we will have any development in the GOM ATT, but we must always watch concentrated areas of convection for possibilities at this time of year.

[cycloneye]

Agree on watching this bouy during the day to see first the wind direction and second the pressures if they fall more than what they are this morning

[Rainband]

This is a BIG IF..But if this delops where would it move?? Thanks for the info...

[cycloneye]

Rainband read the tropical update above.

[Rainband]

Rainband read the tropical update above.

I meant if conditions became favorable which way would it move

[ColdFront77]

Nice looking area of convection over the central Gulf of Mexico. It is currently moving eastward toward Florida. Something to monitor nearly 10% into the 2003 Hurricane Season.

[cycloneye]

Rainband Northnortheast but we have to see if a low forms and them after that where exactly it will move but that will be the general direction.

[Steve]

Winds south or SSE at most of the TX buoys. Most of the winds further up the coast and off of LA are out of the East. The biggest pressure falls right now are at Buras and Southwest Pass, and those are running .01-.02 lower than yesterday. I'd say NOT DEVELOPING. The storms are intense though in the Gulf. If you look at GOES and consider the relative 'nothing' it shows over SE LA, then compare it to the radar where there actuallly is some nearby tstorm activity, that goes to show that there's no doubt some intense rainfall and thunderstorm action in the Gulf. When it refires tomorrow, if over or close to land, somebody's gonna get a few inches of rain.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... klix.shtml

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

For the comparison noted above.

Steve

[Rainband]

Rainband Northnortheast but we have to see if a low forms and them after that where exactly it will move but that will be the general direction.

I say notta too much shear is all our mets are saying..

[ColdFront77]

I'm sorry... I meant to say that the smaller area of convection east of the main "blob" we are watching in the Gulf of Mexico is moving more easterly toward Florida... I didn't mean to say the convection was moving toward Florida, so bluntly.

[Rainband]

I'm sorry... I meant to say that the smaller area of convection east of the main "blob" we are watching in the Gulf of Mexico is moving more easterly toward Florida... I didn't mean to say the convection was moving toward Florida, so bluntly.

Tom I actually knew that you wre talking about the other area thanks

[ColdFront77]

Great, glad you understood what I meant, Jonathan.

The flow is more westerly to easterly than any other direction across the Gulf of Mexico, considering what it could be at that low latitude.

[Steve H.]

If upper level winds were light I'd say watch this area as it has shown some curvature in the past few loops. That being said, conditions look a bit hostile for any development as convection is getting sheared to the ENE. Watching a front coming towards the Texas coast, it would seem conditions will not get favorable. But I still feel we will see early development this season. Cheers!!

[Steve]

I agree ColdFront77. But if you watch a visible sat loop or the NO or LC radar, you can see the low-level flow is south to north. The rain is headed that way, but the blob appears to gradually move slightly eastward as it fires off continuously more westward (!?!?!?!). You can see that the split flow was south of FL 2-3 days ago, south of LA yesterday, and has been inching toward the coast of Brownsville all day today.

Steve

[Rainband]

If upper level winds were light I'd say watch this area as it has shown some curvature in the past few loops. That being said, conditions look a bit hostile for any development as convection is getting sheared to the ENE. Watching a front coming towards the Texas coast, it would seem conditions will not get favorable. But I still feel we will see early development this season. Cheers!!

Me too..My prediction was central gulf in JUNE and I still think it will happen..Just NOT this disturbance..or should I say area of disturbed weather..