Yet another hurricane weakens dramatically...

#1 Postby **MGC** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:42 pm

Just prior to landfall. Divine intervention......MGC

SFloridaGirl · #2 Postby **SFloridaGirl** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:43 pm

its good it weakened..there could of been a lot of damage

cajungal · #3 Postby **cajungal** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:44 pm

Good. Because I did a lot of praying in church this morning for those people. Maybe God answered my prayers.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #4 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:44 pm

The northern Gulf water 26c line did not go very much below the surface over that area. Thats why storms weaken over that area.

stu · #5 Postby **stu** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:45 pm

OT~ do you really think that it was that strong ?? or do we have serious errors in out recon obs WRT ground wind speed.

air360 · #6 Postby **air360** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:46 pm

yea look at it this way....we all got to track a massive hurricane and got all the rushes and everything involved all the way to the coast...then at the last minute/hour it weakened and did not do damage as it could have....so really...if you think about it ...its the best of both worlds...a monster cane that does not do much damage....

PS: with "damage" being relative to what could have been possible

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #7 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:46 pm

stu wrote:OT~ do you really think that it was that strong ?? or do we have serious errors in out recon obs WRT ground wind speed.

Recon was pretty accurate with the system. This system weakened quite a bit over the last eight hours.

#8 Postby **wx247** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:47 pm

You haven't seen the worst damage yet. It will take time for those pictures to arrive into the media.

Skywatch_NC · #9 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:49 pm

cajungal wrote:Good. Because I did a lot of praying in church this morning for those people. Maybe God answered my prayers.

Same here...I mentioned this morning to my SS teacher about Dennis being a Cat 4 sustained winds at 145 mph and later mentioned during prayer requests about those who lost loved ones in Haiti and Cuba and for the peeps who'd be dealing with the 'cane as he bore down on the Gulf coast.

CajunMama · #10 Postby **CajunMama** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:50 pm

don't forget that ivan took out trees, not everywhere was fully rebuilt. The damage will be bad but imagine what it would be like if ivan hadn't hit before.

mikey mike · #11 Postby **mikey mike** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:51 pm

I remember reading somewhere scientists found a pool of cold water deep in the gulf waters off the FL panhandle.Anyone else hear of that and maybe thats why Dennis weakened?

southerngale · #12 Postby **southerngale** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:51 pm

wx247 wrote:You haven't seen the worst damage yet. It will take time for those pictures to arrive into the media.

Yeah, if I remember correctly, that's how it was with Ivan last year. A lot of people saying "damage not too bad" and then we got the pics the next day of Gulf Breeze, Gulf Shores, etc.

I don't think it will be that bad, but I'm certain we haven't seen the worst of the damage yet.

stu · #13 Postby **stu** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:52 pm

Do we have any ground obs for cuba? again not gusts but sustained - really we have no real way of confiming that Denis was CAT4 early today ~ apart from the recon and what bothers me is that all forecasts suggested that there was nothing to slow Dennis down before landfall.

I would be convinced if just one Ob showed CAT3 ...

#14 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:53 pm

I guess you can say we've been damn lucky in a way.

Lili was a Cat. 4 that dropped to a Cat. 2 at landfall within hours.
Ivan was a Cat. 5 in the gulf that dropped to a Cat. 3 at landfall.
Dennis was a Cat. 4 in which dropped to a Cat.3 and the eye shrinking a bit as well.

Maybe there is something to learn from this? These storms all weakened a bit before landfall. Why has this been the case?

HurryKane · #15 Postby **HurryKane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:55 pm

crazycajuncane wrote:I guess you can say we've been damn lucky in a way.

Lili was a Cat. 4 that dropped to a Cat. 2 at landfall within hours.
Ivan was a Cat. 5 in the gulf that dropped to a Cat. 3 at landfall.
Dennis was a Cat. 4 in which dropped to a Cat.3 and the eye shrinking a bit as well.

Maybe there is something to learn from this? These storms all weakened a bit before landfall. Why has this been the case?

The Big Guy has a really sick sense of humor?

I'm kidding. KIDDING.

flashflood · #16 Postby **flashflood** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:58 pm

mikey mike wrote:I remember reading somewhere scientists found a pool of cold water deep in the gulf waters off the FL panhandle.Anyone else hear of that and maybe thats why Dennis weakened?

I heard something like that too. When the winds switch to a somewhat westerly direction, that cold pool surfaces. That along with some dry air helps choke off tropicals systems in that area.

Wacahootaman · #17 Postby **Wacahootaman** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:00 pm

Actually there may be some major damage from the storm surge as far away as Apalachacola and St George Island which are more than 100 miles from landfall. I bet there was considerable damage to oceanfront property in the Cape San Blas area where many waterfront homes have been built in recent years.

The WC reported a storm surge of 10 feet for that area, mainly because of prolonged winds that came off the ocean. Where as there probably was very little storm surge on the west side of the eye do to the short time of onshore winds.

#18 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:00 pm

HurryKane wrote:
crazycajuncane wrote:I guess you can say we've been damn lucky in a way.

Lili was a Cat. 4 that dropped to a Cat. 2 at landfall within hours.
Ivan was a Cat. 5 in the gulf that dropped to a Cat. 3 at landfall.
Dennis was a Cat. 4 in which dropped to a Cat.3 and the eye shrinking a bit as well.

Maybe there is something to learn from this? These storms all weakened a bit before landfall. Why has this been the case?

The Big Guy has a really sick sense of humor?

I'm kidding. KIDDING.

One negative I can see from all this is that LESS AND LESS people will want to evacuate. You scared New Orleans two years in a row.

These storms are monsters and talk of total devestation was all over the place for Ivan and Dennis. People will become lax, because these reporters talk to all these people who rode out the storm and made it this time.

The one time a hurricane is coming at us as a Cat. 2 or such... I can see that being the one to kick up to a Cat. 4 in the final hours. Mother nature is playing games.

Hurricaneman · #19 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:04 pm

Thats the way things work

otowntiger · #20 Postby **otowntiger** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:05 pm

crazycajuncane wrote:I guess you can say we've been damn lucky in a way.

Lili was a Cat. 4 that dropped to a Cat. 2 at landfall within hours.
Ivan was a Cat. 5 in the gulf that dropped to a Cat. 3 at landfall.
Dennis was a Cat. 4 in which dropped to a Cat.3 and the eye shrinking a bit as well.

Maybe there is something to learn from this? These storms all weakened a bit before landfall. Why has this been the case?

I think this is actually a fairly common phenomenon. There have been numerous cases in which monster storms in the central Gulf weaken considerable just before making landfall on the north gulf coast. I'm not sure but I belive there are a number of climatalogical factors at work here. As I've said before, the NHC does great as far as prediction of movement, but they still didn't get the intensity right, and have struggled in that vein for a long time.

Yet another hurricane weakens dramatically...

Yet another hurricane weakens dramatically...

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