TS Emily - 00z Global Model Thread

[gkrangers]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071200

00z NOGAPS

Takes Emily just SW of Hispaniola and just to the NE of Jamaica by 120 hours and off the coast of central Cuba by 144 hours.

This is Emily, not Dennis, lol.

Any thoughts/comments/criticism by those more experienced than I are encouraged.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Iris of 2001 like track is possible if the ridge builds strong....That is possible.

[deltadog03]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&prod=usf&dtg=2005071200

00z NOGAPS

Takes Emily just SW of Hispaniola and just to the NE of Jamaica by 120 hours.

interesting stuff...thanks....hey question for ya and others...that is the ridge that is really building in at hour 120 right??

[mtm4319]

Um... are you sure you didn't post an old model run for Dennis?

[gkrangers]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00z GFS

Takes Emily into the eastern Carribbean and basicaly poofs it...looks like it might carry it toward the west as a wave/disturbance.

Developes the next tropical wave that just came off of Africa into a cyclone and recurves it.

[gkrangers]

Um... are you sure you didn't post an old model run for Dennis?

Wow..I just saw the 144hr shot. Creepy huh?

[gkrangers]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&prod=usf&dtg=2005071200

00z NOGAPS

Takes Emily just SW of Hispaniola and just to the NE of Jamaica by 120 hours.

interesting stuff...thanks....hey question for ya and others...that is the ridge that is really building in at hour 120 right??

The loop I posted is of surface winds, so its not good to go by for steering currents. However, to my inexperienced eye, I think the 00z GFS develops the 500mb ridge westward into the GOM at that time frame. I'm not sure tho, looks like easterly winds (blowing from) over Florida and the northern gulf.

[Sanibel]

Those waters are hot and can handle another cyclone.

I'd put landfall for that model somewhere west of New Orleans...

[gkrangers]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

00z UKMET

Ok...takes Emily NW across the islands to just south of Puerto Rico, then over Hispaniola...then westward to over SE Cuba, then off the coast of central Cuba by 132 hours. The ridge builds well westward into the SE US, over FL and the northeastern GOM.

[texasheat]

yall think it will be a cat 3 once it hits.. as long as it withstands Hurricane status i think once it gets into the gulf it with strengthen quickly and smash either tx or la as a cat 3.

[Scorpion]

So many Texans hoping for TX/LA landfalls .

[gkrangers]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

00z CMC (Canada eh)

Takes Emily WNW through the islands to over south Hispaniola, into SE Cuba, then off the coast of central Cuba, then off the western tip of Cuba.

Strong ridge builds westward into the SE USA, but not as strong over FL and the eastern GOM. Develops wave behind Emily into Franklin, which is a monster, and recurves into the ridge. Not sure of the implications of this cyclone would have on the strength and position of the ridge. This cyclone seems to cutoff the portion of the ridge over the SE USA from the large Bermuda high over the central Atlantic.

But its Canadian..so...its probably not right.

[MWatkins]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

00z GFS

Takes Emily into the eastern Carribbean and basicaly poofs it...looks like it might carry it toward the west as a wave/disturbance.

Developes the next tropical wave that just came off of Africa into a cyclone and recurves it.

The GFS...once again...misses the point. For all the GFDL bashers out there this is a perfect example of the GFS initializing an existing system too weak and keeping it too weak...while at the same time blowing up a non-existing system.

Until the GFS latches on to the smaller system in the grids it will continue to be too weak...and thus too far south...with Emily. The GFDL should provide users with a track a bit more realistic.

As for the NOGAPS model it appears too weak with the stalling trough off the east coast. It will lift...for sure...but not as fast as the NOGAPS model indicates. It also appears too far south in the mid period sending Emily WSW in 48 to 60 hours or so.

UKIE bashers enjoy....the UKMET seems to have the best solution so far...although not that far north of the NOGAPS.

Looks like the GFDL will be a right outlier again....

MW

[ericinmia]

The CMC GEM or Candian, whatever you want to call it.

Has her going over puerto rico, and into Broward country between dade and palm...
http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_144.html

It is the far outlier...

BUT, we need to remember that some of these models weren't initialized with the right center of circulation.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Wowzers!

[gkrangers]

The CMC GEM or Candian, whatever you want to call it.

Has her going over puerto rico, and into Broward country between dade and palm...
http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_144.html

It is the far outlier...

BUT, we need to remember that some of these models weren't initialized with the right center of circulation.

No..it puts it off the western tip of Cuba. I think you were looking at the 00z Monday. Try refreshing, it'll show the 00z Tuesday, the current one.

[jkt21787]

Just remember the CMC showed Dennis as a SW FL storm.

[jkt21787]

The CMC GEM or Candian, whatever you want to call it.

Has her going over puerto rico, and into Broward country between dade and palm...
http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_144.html

It is the far outlier...

BUT, we need to remember that some of these models weren't initialized with the right center of circulation.

I guess the CMC I posted is a different model than your CMC? Cuz they have two different solutions.

There is the RGEM and GGEM that run separately. GGEM is the global model, RGEM regional.

[Sanibel]

UKMET obviously expects the ridge to push west.

[jkt21787]

The CMC GEM or Candian, whatever you want to call it.

Has her going over puerto rico, and into Broward country between dade and palm...
http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_144.html

It is the far outlier...

BUT, we need to remember that some of these models weren't initialized with the right center of circulation.

I guess the CMC I posted is a different model than your CMC? Cuz they have two different solutions.

There is the RGEM and GGEM that run separately. GGEM is the global model, RGEM regional.

Eitherway I just realized he posted the 00z MON, the 00z TUE is out now.

I do see that now