Whats the deal with 90L? (models)

[mobilebay]

All the Global models I've looked at the GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET all take the system out to sea. The NHC model suite wants to take the system across Florida and into the GOM. The GFDL looses the system (and thats putting it mildly) after 12 hours, then dissipates it after 18. What gives? The HPC stated earlier that they think the Globals are off on this one. What do you think? Does anyone have a grasp on this?

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Anonymous]

When I bring up that link you provided it has most of them going across the tip of Florida or somewhere in that vicinity.

[Dean4Storms]

There are actually two possibilities as I see it. If the system doesn't develop it could get absorbed by the trough across the NE CONUS and swung Northerly as the models have it. The other possibility that the Tropical Models are jumping on is that the system develops near the bahamas with a surface low and gets steered by the ridge across Florida and into the GOM. Ships and Dships both develop this system.

[DESTRUCTION5]

im as confused as you are Mobil..I never saw such contrast in directions between globals and the others..

[boca]

A cold front is supposed to weaken the high and switch the upper level winds to southerly pushing the system in the Bahamas north.

[Rainband]

FXUS62 KTBW 210717
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
317 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TOWARD FLORIDA. HOWEVER...
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TURN THIS WAVE MORE NORTH OFF EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
REFORMING ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST U.S.

FOR TODAY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
THAN LAST FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
MOVE FURTHER INLAND TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE SETS UP.

ON FRIDAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO SETUP AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO REFORM OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. FLOW WILL BE RATHER
WEAK THOUGH SO STILL EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER INLAND AREAS.

BY SATURDAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED WHICH
MEANS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST IN THE MORNING SHIFTING INLAND BY AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE
OVER EASTERN HALF OF PENINSULA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-WED)...MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE INVERTED TROUGH/TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
INSTEAD...GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAK TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTHWEST...THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND OUT TO SEA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...
THIS REQUIRES SOME CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT DOES OCCASIONALLY TRY
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. OVERALL...
THIS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...THEN SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE
WESTERLY FLOW DOESN'T LOOK VERY DEEP OR OVERLY STRONG...SO IT'S
UNCLEAR AS TO HOW FAR INLAND SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT DURING THE LATE
NIGHTS...AND HOW FAST THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH EAST OF
OUR INLAND COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON.

HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDS TO BEST DESCRIBE THE SITUATION...BUT IT
BASICALLY BOILS DOWN TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EACH DAY...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SINCE THE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SO LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 77 91 79 / 40 20 40 20
FMY 93 76 92 77 / 40 20 40 20
GIF 94 76 93 77 / 30 20 40 20
SRQ 91 76 90 78 / 40 20 40 20
BKV 93 73 92 74 / 40 20 40 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM....EJ

[Rainband]

I don't see this happening. After looking at the satellite. I am confused

[Steve H.]

I think the models are not reliable right now concerning 90L, but this SHOULD move north then northeast. This all depends on the strength of the ridge, although the trough looks like its moved out into the atlantic, and if 90L develops it may pump up the ridge to the north. WE'll see

[Patrick99]

I don't know....I think a big part of the problem is that the models generally stink with weak systems, it seems. Which is OK, I guess - I certainly don't care or have any great stakes riding on the ultimate "landfall" of a tropical wave.

[WeatherEmperor]

Isnt it soooo convenient that all this time a strong ridge was located in the western Atlantic with no cold fronts coming through, this same ridge that kept Emily from coming north and making landfall in the US? Now allll of a sudden that an Invest in this case Invest 90L is in a position to threaten the US, a real cold front has to be developing which could cause this thing to go out to sea? Im not complaining here but dont you guys see just how incredibly convenient the tropics can be at the right time? Almost makes you wonder that some of these recurvatures are......well staged by mother nature.

<RICKY>