Ophelia forecast #3: Watching very carefully in Florida

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE OPHELIA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
840 PM THURS SEPT 8TH 2005

Ophelia grew much stronger today and became a hurricane while meandering less than 100 miles off the Central Florida coastline. She is expected to continue to grow in size.

Ophelia is currently stalled, but when she does resume movement, she is expected to begin a slow and most likely temporary jog to the E or NE. This calls for the potential beginning of her "loop" that was discussed in my last potential forecast.

The NHC also has Ophelia apparently showing the signs of making a loop and possibly headed back towards the coast of Central or North Florida, perhaps around Day 7 or 8 of the period. {well too early to say}

My official forecast has Ophelia continuing to meander, than taking a potential SW or WSW curve before resuming a nearly due west movement.

It's still a little early to call a potential landfall spot, but as mentioned in earlier forecasts.. I believe she'll make landfall in Extreme North Brevard or South Volusia.

There are 2 scenarios that could make this forecast pan out. When she makes her start of her loop, the dominant High should prevent her from being completely kicked out to sea, thus allowing her to slowly head back West. If the high breaks or a trough arrives, she'll be kicked further north and potentially out to sea.

Here's my experimental 5 day forecast on Ophelia.
Tonight: Still meandering. Max winds: 80 mph
Friday: Showing signs of movement, very slowly east or northeast. Max winds: 85 mph
Saturday: Still moving Eastward, but soon the change direction. Max winds: 95 mph
Sunday: Making a reincarnation of Jeanne. Watching carefully in FLA, GA and SC. Max winds: 100 mph
Monday: Possibly creeping almost due west. Max winds: 105 mph

[Josephine96]

Comments are welcomed as always

[skufful]

My official forecast has Ophelia continuing to meander, than taking a potential SW or WSW curve before resuming a nearly due west movement.

Which is it, that , or the loop into Fl, GA, SC

[Josephine96]

LOL.. Made that sound complicated..

I should have stated, meander to the East.. then an eventual west or sw move. and then a due west movement at some point perhaps..

I think I'm actually confusing myself now lol..

[dixiebreeze]

LOL.. Made that sound complicated..

I should have stated, meander to the East.. then an eventual west or sw move. and then a due west movement at some point perhaps..

I think I'm actually confusing myself now lol..

Well thought out post, John. However, I have to disagree on the time frame for a possible Florida landfall. I'd say three days at the outside at this point in time.

[Bob R]

Well, let's hope that it is not a reincarnation of Jeanne. But this will have to be watched closely, and I don't think that the southeast coast of Florida is necessarily off the hook either.

[Josephine96]

That's true.. don't count out South Florida yet..

[MiamiensisWx]

Josephine96, maybe you should check your intensity forecast for now. Ophelia appears to be slightly less organized and is looking more raggedy on infra-red imagery, although it has good inner convection. The pressure has also rose to 990 milllibars, based on the latest RECON report. Ophelia now looks more like a strong tropical storm instead of a minimal Category One hurricane.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

Ophelia looks less impressive on visible imagery as well. There are more gaps in the clouds, which now appear more raggedy as well.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

There is a lot of dry air to the north of Ophelia, as well as some shear to the north, south and southeast of her. There remains some dry air to the south and southeast of her as well.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

Maybe you should adjust your intensity forecast slightly if Ophelia dosn't show signs of further organization and intensification and/or conditions do not get more favorable for development.

[Josephine96]

Hi CV.. I may readjust my intensity numbers if need be..