Invest 96L Near Az Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[superfly]

08/0600 UTC 32.8N 20.6W ST3.0/3.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If that system is not subtropical enough at 3.0 t. For Advisories then I better get a new life! There not going to upgrade by where its at. If it has a warmer core then the outside enviroment then its a warm core low=subtropical at least.


It sure looks like Vince to me

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[img]]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1990/EDOUARD/track.gif[/img]


This system right now looks like Peter 2003.

[TheEuropean]

This system right now looks like Peter 2003.

But Peter was more to the southwest of the system today. Here is another satpic by University of Dundee:



and a pic of Peter:



or big: http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/2003/031209petergr.jpg

There is a chance, that NHC will upgrad the subtropical system today.

[James]

Hmm, it's in the same sort of place as Ivan was in 1980 when it formed.

[linkerweather]

Not even a mention in the TWO

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not even a mention in the TWO

That blows me away

[linkerweather]

I am a bit suprised myself that it doesn't get a mention. Not suprised though that they wouldn't give it a name considering it is almost to Europe. Although in 1995 there was some serious effects to the Azores from Tanya. In any event the only mention was one brief sentence fragment in the 2 am TWD.

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER IS NEAR 34N20W.

[TheEuropean]

I am a bit suprised myself that it doesn't get a mention. Not suprised though that they wouldn't give it a name considering it is almost to Europe. Although in 1995 there was some serious effects to the Azores from Tanya. In any event the only mention was one brief sentence fragment in the 2 am TWD.

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER IS NEAR 34N20W.

I watch this low very carefully because it will have influence on weather here in europe. The island of Madeira will feel some effects of this low - so why not name it as they did with Tanya?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

T numbers support it as a subtropical cyclone. In its overall look is like peter of 2003. In it could hit land....

[apocalypt-flyer]

WAY too close to Europe for my likes ...

[HenkL]

from: WTNT80 EGRR 080559

TTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 21.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER :

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2005 32.0N 21.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2005 32.0N 20.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2005 32.0N 19.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2005 33.7N 19.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2005 36.0N 18.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080559

[Hyperstorm]

As some have already said, I don't think the NHC would be bothered to make this a classified system.

First of all, it is located over SSTs that are not warm enough to support development (mid 70*s). As a result, convection is very shallow.

Secondly, the system is still likely to be mostly extratropical regardless of the subtropical clasifications. You can easily see the VERY cold cumulus clouds to the southwest and northwest. This tells you that it is drawing some cold air from the north.

Thirdly, there have been other mid-latitude cyclones being classified as subtropical by Dvorak in the far northern Atlantic, but were never classified by the NHC due to the above mentioned factors.

Last, but not least...it is located in the EXTREME far northeastern Atlantic ocean, just northwest of the Canary Islands. This is an area that has not seen a tropical cyclone develop. There was only ONE recorded case in 150 years of history, but that was actually a little further west than where the system is. As James mentioned, that was Hurricane Ivan in 1980. SSTs must be WAY above normal for that to happen.

It appears that this system has stopped its southward progress and should begin to move poleward very soon.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, that's pretty impressive. Nonetheless, I doubt the NHC will upgrade it unless it moves more southwest or convection persists.

[Thunder44]

Now TPC mentions it:

496
ABNT20 KNHC 081516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
OVER RELATIVELY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

IMO this might get upgraded if the core warms

[HURAKAN]

TWD 2:05 PM:

An
upper low is embedded within the trough near 33n20w and oddly
enough a tight core of convection has developed within 45 nm of
the center...giving the system an almost tropical appearance. A
surface trough extends S and se of the low from the western
Canary Islands SW to 23n30w and is along the leading edge of a
stratocumulus field. Isolated showers may move across the canary
and Madeira islands...but this system is mostly cold-core and is
not expected to become tropical over the colder waters of the NE
Atlc.

Looks tropical but it's extratropical according to the NHC.

[superfly]

This looks a lot better than STD (no pun intended) 22.

[HURAKAN]

BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.

[NastyCat4]

Sub Trop 22 will become Vince, in all probability this evening.