TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 19 2005
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE RE-CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED AGAIN.
MY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIRA/NESDIS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT...SO ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/9. A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...THAT IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF SIXTEEN-E...IS
LIKELY TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-5 DAYS...THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY BECOME VERY WEAK BY THAT TIME.
THUS...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 12.2N 113.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 12.3N 115.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W 25 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 12.7N 118.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 119.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 14.0N 121.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 30 KT
