To Those Who Said 2004 Could Not Be Repeated In Florida

[recmod]

I remember when forecasters started making their predictions of an active 2005 Hurricane Season, some S2K members expressed concern that Florida might see a repeat of the 2004 season. There was almost universal condemnation of such a possibility. Many well-respected S2K members, among them some professional meteorologists, said there was NO WAY that Florida would be struck by 4 hurricanes again.

Well, the 2005 Season has proven all the nay-sayers wrong. Wilma was the 4th Hurricane to impact Florida this year (following Dennis, Katrina & Rita), and the 6th tropical system overall (including Tropical Storms Arlene and Tammy).

Some may argue that Rita shouldn't count in Florida's strike tally, since it scraped by south of the Keys, not actually making landfall in the state. However, if we eliminate Rita, we must also remove 2004's Ivan, since that storm made landfall in Alabama.

The two year tally for Florida is as follows:

2004

Bonnie~ Tropical Storm 50 mph
Charley~ Cat. 4 Hurricane 150 mph
Frances~ Cat. 2 Hurricane 105 mph
Ivan~ Cat. 3 Hurricane 130mph
Jeanne~ Cat. 3 Hurricane 120 mph

2005

Arlene~ Tropical Storm 70 mph
Dennis~ Cat. 3 Hurricane 120 mph
Katrina~ Cat. 1 Hurricane 80 mph
Rita~ Cat. 2 Hurricane 100 mph
Tammy~ Tropical Storm 50 mph
Wilma~ Cat. 3 Hurricane 125 mph

That is 8 Hurricanes and a total of 11 tropical systems impacting Florida in a span of just over 14 months. This is the most intense flurry of hurricane activity ever recorded in Florida's history

Early estimates are already at $9 Billion in INSURED damages for Wilma.... won't that make Wilma the 3rd costliest Hurricane, behind Katrina & Andrew???

--Lou

[CharleySurvivor]

and 2006 better be nice and quiet. I'm not -removed- either!

[shaggy]

wilma supposedly had winds of 125mph but no reporting station on land recorded sustained over 100 that i have seen so she was probably not a true cat 3 at landfall.But overall florida is having a rough stretch but thats what happens when you are the only point of land between the GOM and the atlantic!

[recmod]

How many reporting stations exist in the area of landfall that might have recorded those 125 mph winds?? The hurricane made landfall south of Naples in a nearly uninhabited marshy area of the Everglades. Those maximum 125 mph winds would have only existed in a very small area near and south of the center right along the coast.

--Lou

[linkerweather]

I remember when forecasters started making their predictions of an active 2005 Hurricane Season, some S2K members expressed concern that Florida might see a repeat of the 2004 season. There was almost universal condemnation of such a possibility. Many well-respected S2K members, among them some professional meteorologists, said there was NO WAY that Florida would be struck by 4 hurricanes again.

Well, the 2005 Season has proven all the nay-sayers wrong. Wilma was the 4th Hurricane to impact Florida this year (following Dennis, Katrina & Rita), and the 6th tropical system overall (including Tropical Storms Arlene and Tammy).

Some may argue that Rita shouldn't count in Florida's strike tally, since it scraped by south of the Keys, not actually making landfall in the state. However, if we eliminate Rita, we must also remove 2004's Ivan, since that storm made landfall in Alabama.

The two year tally for Florida is as follows:

2004

Bonnie~ Tropical Storm 50 mph
Charley~ Cat. 4 Hurricane 150 mph
Frances~ Cat. 2 Hurricane 105 mph
Ivan~ Cat. 3 Hurricane 130mph
Jeanne~ Cat. 3 Hurricane 120 mph

2005

Arlene~ Tropical Storm 70 mph
Dennis~ Cat. 3 Hurricane 120 mph
Katrina~ Cat. 1 Hurricane 80 mph
Rita~ Cat. 2 Hurricane 100 mph
Tammy~ Tropical Storm 50 mph
Wilma~ Cat. 3 Hurricane 125 mph

That is 8 Hurricanes and a total of 11 tropical systems impacting Florida in a span of just over 14 months. This is the most intense flurry of hurricane activity ever recorded in Florida's history

Early estimates are already at $9 Billion in INSURED damages for Wilma.... won't that make Wilma the 3rd costliest Hurricane, behind Katrina & Andrew???

--Lou

TS CINdy, although landfall in LA left a surge in W. Florida along with TS winds in the Panhandle

[chris_fit]

Early estimates are already at $9 Billion in INSURED damages for Wilma.... won't that make Wilma the 3rd costliest Hurricane, behind Katrina & Andrew???

--Lou

Think Charley was around $15 Billion

[Anonymous]

Early estimates are already at $9 Billion in INSURED damages for Wilma.... won't that make Wilma the 3rd costliest Hurricane, behind Katrina & Andrew???

--Lou

Think Charley was around $15 Billion

Yes...and Wilma with 9 billion INSURED would be about 18 billion.

[djtil]

wilma supposedly had winds of 125mph but no reporting station on land recorded sustained over 100 that i have seen so she was probably not a true cat 3 at landfall.But overall florida is having a rough stretch but thats what happens when you are the only point of land between the GOM and the atlantic!

this seems to be a very common theme with nearly every storm. i think the 90% reduction that is gone with is a tad liberal.

[Anonymous]

wilma supposedly had winds of 125mph but no reporting station on land recorded sustained over 100 that i have seen so she was probably not a true cat 3 at landfall.But overall florida is having a rough stretch but thats what happens when you are the only point of land between the GOM and the atlantic!

this seems to be a very common theme with nearly every storm. i think the 90% reduction that is gone with is a tad liberal.

report of 125 mph sustained and a gust to 134 mph at Dry Tortugas before instrument failed.

[abajan]

and 2006 better be nice and quiet. I'm not -removed- either!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You'll probably get your wish because I think it's expected by some to be an El Nino year. However, 2007 could be a problem because La Ninas sometimes follow El Ninos and, if memory serves me correctly, 1995 was a La Nina year.

[Regit]

Early estimates are already at $9 Billion in INSURED damages for Wilma.... won't that make Wilma the 3rd costliest Hurricane, behind Katrina & Andrew???

--Lou

To help, the current list (with Katrina being the only 2005 storm added so far) is:

Katrina: $70-130 Billion est.
Andrew: $43.6 Billion
Charley: $15 Billion
Ivan: $14.2 Billion
Hugo: $12.3 Billion
Agnes: $11.3 Billion
Betsy: $10.8 Billion
Frances: $8.9 Billion
Camille: $8.9 Billion
Diane: $7 Billion

The list is, of course, adjusted for inflation.

[wxmann_91]

and 2006 better be nice and quiet. I'm not -removed- either!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You'll probably get your wish because I think it's expected by some to be an El Nino year. However, 2007 could be a problem because La Ninas sometimes follow El Ninos and, if memory serves me correctly, 1995 was a La Nina year.

According to a member here (El Nino), neutral ENSO conditions are expected through 2009.

[Regit]

and 2006 better be nice and quiet. I'm not -removed- either!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You'll probably get your wish because I think it's expected by some to be an El Nino year. However, 2007 could be a problem because La Ninas sometimes follow El Ninos and, if memory serves me correctly, 1995 was a La Nina year.

According to a member here (El Nino), neutral ENSO conditions are expected through 2009.

I've also heard some say they expect La Nina next year. LoL Never know what to believe.

[brunota2003]

From Jesse Bass updating for Mark Sudduth:

Mark had a wind gust to 135mph on the Chevy Tahoe this morning as the backside, or western eyewall of Wilma came ashore.

[f5]

Katrina will always be #1 in cost unless a major metro gets a direct hit from a CAT 5 ex Houston,tampa,nyc

[gilbert88]

Katrina will always be #1 in cost unless a major metro gets a direct hit from a CAT 5 ex Houston,tampa,nyc

In NYC a moderate Cat. 3 would suffice to surpass Katrina...

[f5]

of course New Orleans is a small village compared to NYC also a NYC hit would bring a worldwide economic crash

[Andrew92]

and 2006 better be nice and quiet. I'm not -removed- either!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You'll probably get your wish because I think it's expected by some to be an El Nino year. However, 2007 could be a problem because La Ninas sometimes follow El Ninos and, if memory serves me correctly, 1995 was a La Nina year.

According to a member here (El Nino), neutral ENSO conditions are expected through 2009.

Sorry to be frank, but who said that? And is it possible to predict even ENSO conditions four years out like that?

-Andrew92

[quandary]

wilma supposedly had winds of 125mph but no reporting station on land recorded sustained over 100 that i have seen so she was probably not a true cat 3 at landfall.But overall florida is having a rough stretch but thats what happens when you are the only point of land between the GOM and the atlantic!

Highest winds are never recorded. Basically, if you get a decent set of gusts at a certain speed, that's probably the highest wind at the time.

[wxmann_91]

and 2006 better be nice and quiet. I'm not -removed- either!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You'll probably get your wish because I think it's expected by some to be an El Nino year. However, 2007 could be a problem because La Ninas sometimes follow El Ninos and, if memory serves me correctly, 1995 was a La Nina year.

According to a member here (El Nino), neutral ENSO conditions are expected through 2009.

Sorry to be frank, but who said that? And is it possible to predict even ENSO conditions four years out like that?

-Andrew92

Check out this thread and go to the last post:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=76713