Interesting discussion from TLH NWS re: Low in Gulf next wk

[N2FSU]

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS ARE IN LARGE
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON
TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS WERE DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS BY 500
MILES BY 12Z ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FASTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH
THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS...THE GFS HAS REALLY SHIFTED ITS OPINION OF
THE SITUATION. ON THE 28/12Z RUN OF THE GFS...LITTLE IF ANY ENERGY
FROM THIS SYSTEM MADE IT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. TODAY...HOWEVER THIS
IS DIFFERENT AS THE 29/00Z RUN INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE ENERGY
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THE NAM...SINCE
IT GOES OUT TO 84 HOURS IS LITTLE HELP BEYOND TUESDAY. EXAMINATION
OF THE 28/12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW THAT IT IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE NAM...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL
TIME SHIFT THE GFS GRIDDED DATA BY ABOUT 12 HOURS BACKWARDS IN MY
FORECAST TO BLEND THE TWO SOLUTIONS. ONE PARTICULAR FLY IN THE
OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK...IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT
SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO THE GOMEX ABOUT THE TIME THIS SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. WHILE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NEVER
BE RULED OUT IN THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN...I THINK THE MODELS
MAY JUST BE PULLING SOME OF THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM BETA
NORTHWARD AND INTO THIS SYSTEM.

[WxGuy1]

No offense or anything, but what's so interesting about that discussion? I'll copy my post from the Beta thread:

Note the decent upper-level low forecast to cut-off develop in the extreme northern Gulf in 84+ hours. This low will open into a wave and become progressive a day or so after this. DPVA and weaker low-level WAA will induce surface pressure falls over this area, leading to the development of a an extratropical low in this area. At this time, this certainly doesn't look like a Nor'Easter situation.

Note that the NAM puts the cut-off low over central Texas, not the northern Gulf coast and would not support the idea of a low developing in the northeastern Gulf. The NAM is terrible in tropical cyclone situations, but this is not a tropical cyclone situation. As noted in HPC discussions, model consistency is poor with the upper-level pattern in 3-5 days, with some runs and GFS ensemble members indicating a more potent east coast low, though the majority of models indicating a weaker surface pattern.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Caribbean moisture combines with a GOM low = possible
severe weather in E. GOM Tuesday-Wednesday per HPC and
NWS at the top of this thread.

[N2FSU]

Didn't mean to imply anything earth shattering here, but being in N FL it always gets my attention when mention is made of a possible winter-type low forming in the Gulf. I don't mean to impy it will be a tropical system, but one of the worst storms I have ever experienced around here was the 1993 "No Name Storm" in March of that year. Granted, it was March and not October/November, but the point is that it was NOT a tropical system. I was working a 24 hour shift as a Paramedic that day/night and I remember running non-stop calls for downed trees/powerlines and related injuries. The only other bad storm I have experienced was Hurricane Kate in 1985, and that was in November.

[WxGuy1]

Didn't mean to imply anything earth shattering here, but being in N FL it always gets my attention when mention is made of a possible winter-type low forming in the Gulf. I don't mean to impy it will be a tropical system, but one of the worst storms I have ever experienced around here was the 1993 "No Name Storm" in March of that year. Granted, it was March and not October/November, but the point is that it was NOT a tropical system. I was working a 24 hour shift as a Paramedic that day/night and I remember running non-stop calls for downed trees/powerlines and related injuries. The only other bad storm I have experienced was Hurricane Kate in 1985, and that was in November.

The March '93 Superstorm is certainly one of the most significant extratropical lows to affect the eastern US in the past 100 years, and certainly stronger than many tropical storms and weak hurricanes. When I read your post, I thought you were pointing out a tropical cyclone possibility, so apologies for mis-inferring!

[N2FSU]

No problem WxGuy!

[dixiebreeze]

Didn't mean to imply anything earth shattering here, but being in N FL it always gets my attention when mention is made of a possible winter-type low forming in the Gulf. I don't mean to impy it will be a tropical system, but one of the worst storms I have ever experienced around here was the 1993 "No Name Storm" in March of that year. Granted, it was March and not October/November, but the point is that it was NOT a tropical system. I was working a 24 hour shift as a Paramedic that day/night and I remember running non-stop calls for downed trees/powerlines and related injuries. The only other bad storm I have experienced was Hurricane Kate in 1985, and that was in November.

I remember the NoName only too well. Hurricane force winds and storm surge that became known as a "100 year flood" where I live and probably most of the west central and north Florida gulf coast.

[Jevo]

No offense or anything, but what's so interesting about that discussion? I'll copy my post from the Beta thread:

Its pretty funny that when most people start a comment with "no offense" it usually means some of the text to follow will most likely be offensive to the original poster...... just an observation

[WxGuy1]

No offense or anything, but what's so interesting about that discussion? I'll copy my post from the Beta thread:

Its pretty funny that when most people start a comment with "no offense" it usually means some of the text to follow will most likely be offensive to the original poster...... just an observation

Yup, that's why I had to put "no offense"... I didn't want the OP to think it was a personal comment or that there was anything negative about posting a comment with a different interpretation. Some folks get offended when you put forth an opposite opinion.

[fci]

Didn't mean to imply anything earth shattering here, but being in N FL it always gets my attention when mention is made of a possible winter-type low forming in the Gulf. I don't mean to impy it will be a tropical system, but one of the worst storms I have ever experienced around here was the 1993 "No Name Storm" in March of that year. Granted, it was March and not October/November, but the point is that it was NOT a tropical system. I was working a 24 hour shift as a Paramedic that day/night and I remember running non-stop calls for downed trees/powerlines and related injuries. The only other bad storm I have experienced was Hurricane Kate in 1985, and that was in November.

With all due respect, if "I don't mean to impy it will be a tropical system,", then why post it in the Talkin' Tropics forum?

I think you were certainly implying that you think it may be a tropical system.

That's OK with me but please don't paint it as something different.
You have every right to post your topic and see if anyone else agrees with you and chooses to discuss it with you.

[TS Zack]

That H5 Closed Low will be weakening as it works across the Northern Gulf.

The dynamics will not be there for a large severe weather outbreak but heavy rainfall can be expected. A squall line should develop in East Texas tomorrow night and push Eastward. By the time it gets to Eastern La/Ms it will probably weaken as lifting will be limited with CAPE indices running low.

Once interacting with more moisture across Florida, this system could fire some more Severe Thunderstorms.

All in all the HPC has a slight chance for Severe Weather.