ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12261 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:25 am

Well NCEP models looks to be verifying here compared to the Euro. MJO likely to come out stronger over the IO vs the WPAC and now both the CFS and Euro models have stout trade bursts over the dateline.

The CFS depiction would put a big dent on El Nino chances for 2022:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12262 Postby WiscoWx02 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:26 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Well NCEP models looks to be verifying here compared to the Euro. MJO likely to come out stronger over the IO vs the WPAC and now both the CFS and Euro models have stout trade bursts over the dateline.

The CFS depiction would put a big dent on El Nino chances for 2022:
https://i.imgur.com/x7pn4vP.png


So THIS is why it is showing La Nina lasting through summer 2022? I mean, if La Nina actually lasts through spring and summer without giving away to EL Nino I would be extremely shocked at this point but an interesting look at how the ENSO may evolve nonetheless.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12263 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:17 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Well NCEP models looks to be verifying here compared to the Euro. MJO likely to come out stronger over the IO vs the WPAC and now both the CFS and Euro models have stout trade bursts over the dateline.

The CFS depiction would put a big dent on El Nino chances for 2022:
https://i.imgur.com/x7pn4vP.png


So THIS is why it is showing La Nina lasting through summer 2022? I mean, if La Nina actually lasts through spring and summer without giving away to EL Nino I would be extremely shocked at this point but an interesting look at how the ENSO may evolve nonetheless.


I have to admit, I have been long expecting 2022 to be an El Nino year, but with these recent ENSO evolution dynamics, I am honestly starting to reconsider my belief on how likely El Nino truly is for this year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12264 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:18 pm

Looks like no El Nino for '22 if this verifies.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12265 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:37 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Well NCEP models looks to be verifying here compared to the Euro. MJO likely to come out stronger over the IO vs the WPAC and now both the CFS and Euro models have stout trade bursts over the dateline.

The CFS depiction would put a big dent on El Nino chances for 2022:
https://i.imgur.com/x7pn4vP.png


So THIS is why it is showing La Nina lasting through summer 2022? I mean, if La Nina actually lasts through spring and summer without giving away to EL Nino I would be extremely shocked at this point but an interesting look at how the ENSO may evolve nonetheless.


Regarding the ocean component of ENSO, La Nina will be over soon since the surface temperaturs are likely to warm between March and April due to an erupting downwelling KW. But to get an El Nino you need a steady stream of warm water from the WPAC to the EPAC. The issue with a strong February trade burst and not a WWB, is that it likely means we won't see another downwelling KW forming and reaching the EPAC by June. So when the July trade winds go into overdrive, the lack of subsurface (and eventually the surface temperatures) warmth in place means an easier chance for -ENSO or La Nina to resurface by ASO.

This could change if we get a spring WWB over the dateline but it doesn't seem likely and those are rare without an El Nino transition in place.
It still seems the atmosphere is tilted towards La Nina. That's a big WWB over the IO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12266 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:52 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Well NCEP models looks to be verifying here compared to the Euro. MJO likely to come out stronger over the IO vs the WPAC and now both the CFS and Euro models have stout trade bursts over the dateline.

The CFS depiction would put a big dent on El Nino chances for 2022:
https://i.imgur.com/x7pn4vP.png


So THIS is why it is showing La Nina lasting through summer 2022? I mean, if La Nina actually lasts through spring and summer without giving away to EL Nino I would be extremely shocked at this point but an interesting look at how the ENSO may evolve nonetheless.


Regarding the ocean component of ENSO, La Nina will be over soon since the surface temperaturs are likely to warm between March and April due to an erupting downwelling KW. But to get an El Nino you need a steady stream of warm water from the WPAC to the EPAC. The issue with a strong February trade burst and not a WWB, is that it likely means we won't see another downwelling KW forming and reaching the EPAC by June. So when the July trade winds go into overdrive, the lack of subsurface (and eventually the surface temperatures) warmth in place means an easier chance for -ENSO or La Nina to resurface by ASO.

This could change if we get a spring WWB over the dateline but it doesn't seem likely and those are rare without an El Nino transition in place.
It still seems the atmosphere is tilted towards La Nina. That's a big WWB over the IO.


Yeah I'm wondering what happens in March. You get a lot of El Niños really start then with a WPAC MJO event that causes a WWB. Still too early to see how it will be then. Door is definitely still open for El Niño but if there isn't a WWB by the beginning of spring then that door will start closing
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12267 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:03 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
So THIS is why it is showing La Nina lasting through summer 2022? I mean, if La Nina actually lasts through spring and summer without giving away to EL Nino I would be extremely shocked at this point but an interesting look at how the ENSO may evolve nonetheless.


Regarding the ocean component of ENSO, La Nina will be over soon since the surface temperaturs are likely to warm between March and April due to an erupting downwelling KW. But to get an El Nino you need a steady stream of warm water from the WPAC to the EPAC. The issue with a strong February trade burst and not a WWB, is that it likely means we won't see another downwelling KW forming and reaching the EPAC by June. So when the July trade winds go into overdrive, the lack of subsurface (and eventually the surface temperatures) warmth in place means an easier chance for -ENSO or La Nina to resurface by ASO.

This could change if we get a spring WWB over the dateline but it doesn't seem likely and those are rare without an El Nino transition in place.
It still seems the atmosphere is tilted towards La Nina. That's a big WWB over the IO.


Yeah I'm wondering what happens in March. You get a lot of El Niños really start then with a WPAC MJO event that causes a WWB. Still too early to see how it will be then. Door is definitely still open for El Niño but if there isn't a WWB by the beginning of spring then that door will start closing


Although this can easily change, the 90 day CFS still doesn't show a WWB in March-April despite that model's biases and the MJO probably moving into the Pacific around then.

This trade burst looks like it will spawn a pretty good upwelling KW. So it's possible that a even March-April WWB fails to offset it. I don't recall in our most recent El Nino fails in 2017, 2021 having strong trades like this in February.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12268 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:25 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Regarding the ocean component of ENSO, La Nina will be over soon since the surface temperaturs are likely to warm between March and April due to an erupting downwelling KW. But to get an El Nino you need a steady stream of warm water from the WPAC to the EPAC. The issue with a strong February trade burst and not a WWB, is that it likely means we won't see another downwelling KW forming and reaching the EPAC by June. So when the July trade winds go into overdrive, the lack of subsurface (and eventually the surface temperatures) warmth in place means an easier chance for -ENSO or La Nina to resurface by ASO.

This could change if we get a spring WWB over the dateline but it doesn't seem likely and those are rare without an El Nino transition in place.
It still seems the atmosphere is tilted towards La Nina. That's a big WWB over the IO.


Yeah I'm wondering what happens in March. You get a lot of El Niños really start then with a WPAC MJO event that causes a WWB. Still too early to see how it will be then. Door is definitely still open for El Niño but if there isn't a WWB by the beginning of spring then that door will start closing


Although this can easily change, the 90 day CFS still doesn't show a WWB in March-April despite that model's biases and the MJO probably moving into the Pacific around then.

This trade burst looks like it will spawn a pretty good upwelling KW. So it's possible that a even March-April WWB fails to offset it. I don't recall in our most recent El Nino fails in 2017, 2021 having strong trades like this in February.
https://i.imgur.com/0DKRhL6.png


If that verifies that odds of an El Nino go down I agree. I'm definitely keeping an eye on this beast of downwelling Kelvin Wave though. Perhaps it won't be enough to start an El Nino but if it survives, and so far it's doing a darn good job at doing that, La Nina is toast and neutral is more likely if the models verify in showing strong trades near the dateline. I just have a hard time trusting any models this time of year, it's easily my least favorite time of year due to the Spring Predictability Barrier. Who knows what will actually verify in terms of models.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12269 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Regarding the ocean component of ENSO, La Nina will be over soon since the surface temperaturs are likely to warm between March and April due to an erupting downwelling KW. But to get an El Nino you need a steady stream of warm water from the WPAC to the EPAC. The issue with a strong February trade burst and not a WWB, is that it likely means we won't see another downwelling KW forming and reaching the EPAC by June. So when the July trade winds go into overdrive, the lack of subsurface (and eventually the surface temperatures) warmth in place means an easier chance for -ENSO or La Nina to resurface by ASO.

This could change if we get a spring WWB over the dateline but it doesn't seem likely and those are rare without an El Nino transition in place.
It still seems the atmosphere is tilted towards La Nina. That's a big WWB over the IO.


Yeah I'm wondering what happens in March. You get a lot of El Niños really start then with a WPAC MJO event that causes a WWB. Still too early to see how it will be then. Door is definitely still open for El Niño but if there isn't a WWB by the beginning of spring then that door will start closing


Although this can easily change, the 90 day CFS still doesn't show a WWB in March-April despite that model's biases and the MJO probably moving into the Pacific around then.

This trade burst looks like it will spawn a pretty good upwelling KW. So it's possible that a even March-April WWB fails to offset it. I don't recall in our most recent El Nino fails in 2017, 2021 having strong trades like this in February.
https://i.imgur.com/0DKRhL6.png


Think it's a little early to be looking out there even with climate models but yeah if the CFS was correct it would certainly take down the chances. We shall see I guess. Seems even with the EWBs the warm pool is probably strong enough that this takes us back into neutral again. After that is anyone's guess
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12270 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jan 29, 2022 4:25 pm

If we follow the 1998-2001 logic, it is that we may not see an El Nino until 2024 :D

But seriously, I really think these ENSO state model predictions are quite interesting. What's for sure, unless we get some 2013-like messup, assuming we enter neutral or *possibly* a third year La Nina, there's always that chance that we may be in for another wild Atlantic ride.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12271 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jan 29, 2022 5:36 pm

Most triple Ninas also occur after at least moderate Ninos. 2019-20 arguably didn’t qualify as one to begin with :uarrow:
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12272 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:31 pm

The CFSv2 is showing what the trade wind pattern you DO NOT want if you want an El Niño. The ECMWF is more open to an El Niño. At this point, it is still too early to make a definitive call as to the ENSO state for the 2022-2023 winter.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12273 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:09 pm

Credibility that these models have towards ENSO especially beyond the 45 time frame or so? Zilch.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12274 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:59 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Credibility that these models have towards ENSO especially beyond the 45 time frame or so? Zilch.


Especially in the Spring barrier period.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12275 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:46 pm

Unless we get another 2009 type El Nino that comes on super late in the spring period, the writing is on the wall for a 2022 El Nino. Yeah the models aren't reliable in this time period so we don't know what's going to happen in March, but that doesn't matter because we will see a month long February trade burst and not a WWB. An ideal situation for an El Nino was either a February WWB or simply relaxed trades. Not an uptick in trades.

To me this means:

1. La Nina atmospheric forcing is still in control despite the Nino regions eventually warming.
2. Likely upwelling favored and not downwelling for the next couple of months, a sensitive time for El Nino formation. So when this present downwelling KW is in the EPAC, it could be followed by a pool of cool waters.

It was tough anyway with a -PDO/-PMM regime.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12276 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Unless we get another 2009 type El Nino that comes on super late in the spring period, the writing is on the wall for a 2022 El Nino. Yeah the models aren't reliable in this time period so we don't know what's going to happen in March, but that doesn't matter because we will see a month long February trade burst and not a WWB. An ideal situation for an El Nino was either a February WWB or simply relaxed trades. Not an uptick in trades.

To me this means:

1. La Nina atmospheric forcing is still in control despite the Nino regions eventually warming.
2. Likely upwelling favored and not downwelling for the next couple of months, a sensitive time for El Nino formation. So when this present downwelling KW is in the EPAC, it could be followed by a pool of cool waters.

It was tough anyway with a -PDO/-PMM regime.


Unfathomably based
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12277 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Unless we get another 2009 type El Nino that comes on super late in the spring period, the writing is on the wall for a 2022 El Nino. Yeah the models aren't reliable in this time period so we don't know what's going to happen in March, but that doesn't matter because we will see a month long February trade burst and not a WWB. An ideal situation for an El Nino was either a February WWB or simply relaxed trades. Not an uptick in trades.

To me this means:

1. La Nina atmospheric forcing is still in control despite the Nino regions eventually warming.
2. Likely upwelling favored and not downwelling for the next couple of months, a sensitive time for El Nino formation. So when this present downwelling KW is in the EPAC, it could be followed by a pool of cool waters.

It was tough anyway with a -PDO/-PMM regime.


To be fair there is a decent +PMM coming on, though yeah with the -PDO its westward extent is a little stunted. I'll keep my eyes on this but I'd say for the next few weeks the window for El Niño is wide open. Now in a few weeks if we're still talking about this and there isn't a coming WPAC MJO I'd probably agree it would be difficult. But as it's only getting in February there's still ample time for things to shift in El Niño's direction
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12278 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:50 am

Kingarabian wrote:Unless we get another 2009 type El Nino that comes on super late in the spring period, the writing is on the wall for a 2022 El Nino. Yeah the models aren't reliable in this time period so we don't know what's going to happen in March, but that doesn't matter because we will see a month long February trade burst and not a WWB. An ideal situation for an El Nino was either a February WWB or simply relaxed trades. Not an uptick in trades.

To me this means:

1. La Nina atmospheric forcing is still in control despite the Nino regions eventually warming.
2. Likely upwelling favored and not downwelling for the next couple of months, a sensitive time for El Nino formation. So when this present downwelling KW is in the EPAC, it could be followed by a pool of cool waters.

It was tough anyway with a -PDO/-PMM regime.


The door for an El Niño has not closed just yet. It is not common, but there have been El Niño years that featured easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific. We are not going to know for sure the ENSO state of the 2022-2023 winter for a while.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12279 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:35 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Unless we get another 2009 type El Nino that comes on super late in the spring period, the writing is on the wall for a 2022 El Nino. Yeah the models aren't reliable in this time period so we don't know what's going to happen in March, but that doesn't matter because we will see a month long February trade burst and not a WWB. An ideal situation for an El Nino was either a February WWB or simply relaxed trades. Not an uptick in trades.

To me this means:

1. La Nina atmospheric forcing is still in control despite the Nino regions eventually warming.
2. Likely upwelling favored and not downwelling for the next couple of months, a sensitive time for El Nino formation. So when this present downwelling KW is in the EPAC, it could be followed by a pool of cool waters.

It was tough anyway with a -PDO/-PMM regime.


The door for an El Niño has not closed just yet. It is not common, but there have been El Niño years that featured easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific. We are not going to know for sure the ENSO state of the 2022-2023 winter for a while.
https://i.postimg.cc/P5f9RbvG/Yg-NCc-D9d3k.png

Its over, no el nino in '22
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12280 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:04 am

I still say we should reserve judgement on ENSO until the usual spring period. I do think this EWB is potent and sustained enough to where it could generate a UKW that may weaken the warm pool but not dispel it entirely. With the progression of said warm pool and what looks to be a developing +NPMM (a common occurrence after prolonged Niña episodes) the damage to La Niña is essentially done, it's just a matter of whether or not we stall again or we can eventually get some more WWBs down the road to herald a legitimate Niño.
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