#12824 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jan 26, 2023 8:16 am
jconsor wrote:Interesting post by meteorologist Scott Yuknis from Climate Impact Company:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ur ... 9413766144"Dynamic models like El Nino by June 2023 but historical precedent does not agree...
All leading operational models (BOM, ECM, and CFS) currently indicate an El Nino onset by June.
However, the historical precedent for moderately negative ONI during the final NOV/DEC/JAN of a lengthy La Nina episode indicate the following June Nino34 SSTA is in the El Nino range in only 2 of 8 opportunities."
There's also this:
"The projection of El Nino by June 2023 by leading operational models is certainly possible, there's a lot of very warm anomalous water in the equatorial Pacific subsurface west of 160W longitude, but historically El Nino has a 25% chance of developing that quickly when moderate La Nina is still in-place at the beginning of the year." The key here is that the La Nina is still very formidable, and as a result, the longer this lasts, the harder it will be to get an El Nino as early as the models are suggesting. Looks like he is banking on neutral conditions for 2023 rather than anything "child"-related (whether it is the "boy" or the "girl"
)
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