ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12981 Postby Cycles » Sun Mar 19, 2023 5:28 pm

Kingarabian wrote:30 day SOI has finally flipped negative. Still a long way to go and its 50/50 March averages out as a negative with the MJO entering the IO next week.


Agree there's still a long way to go for a official Nino to go to meet all the tri-monthly thresholds (re SOI and SST's). Most in our region would-be more than happy for a long ongoing neutral type flavor in the ENSO region similar to 2012. Ninos are mostly long misery events in our region and can be very destructive for other regions.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12982 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:29 am

We need another WWB by the dateline to really get in position to get there but the rapid transition buys us time for a strong El Niño to happen. We could have the subsurface for it and the atmosphere is starting to respond to the shifting ENSO which will reinforce the warming.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12983 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:25 am

Weekly CPC update of 3/20/23 has niño 3.4 warming up to +0.1C and the last time it was here was on June 2021, while niño 1+2 is at +1.4C and niño 3 at +0.6C.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to positive at +0.1C

#12984 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:10 pm

Spent a good bit of time looking at ENSO in this week's update. El Nino is coming - we feel confident about that, but how strong and what's going on with the Atlantic SST pattern remains interesting to say the least.



Link: https://youtu.be/CDB8frOHE-k
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12985 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 23, 2023 4:19 pm

The SOI has gone flat running barely negative. The question is when will a more definite push into deeper negative will take place?

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12986 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 23, 2023 10:15 pm

Atmosphere is in a neutral state. Next best chance for the SOI to tank will be late April into May when/if the MJO again becomes more favorable for +ENSO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12987 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:00 am

Look at the upper right side of the SST Subsurface anomalies image.
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https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Subsurface-SST-Anomalies.gif
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12988 Postby SFLcane » Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:53 am

Iceresistance wrote:Look at the upper right side of the SST Subsurface anomalies image.
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Subsurface-SST-Anomalies.gif
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Subsurface-SST-Anomalies.gif



Yeah significant warming east recently with the WWB. And still lots of heat west. That's why I think we're getting weak El Nino at least, probably more.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12989 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:14 am

MJO currently strong in IO but expected to enter the circle of death, then be reborn in WPAC early April. This is probably the reason why GFS ensembles are showing something in the WPAC within that timeframe. I'm saying this because this could be the anticipated push to seal the deal for El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12990 Postby Cycles » Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:05 pm

dexterlabio wrote:MJO currently strong in IO but expected to enter the circle of death, then be reborn in WPAC early April. This is probably the reason why GFS ensembles are showing something in the WPAC within that timeframe. I'm saying this because this could be the anticipated push to seal the deal for El Nino.


Image

Image

Indeed models are indicating the mjo signal is approaching the DOA circle. Looking on the other plots above not the GFS, myself not see'in where any others actually do show a rebirth in the wpac atm.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C

#12991 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:20 am

Niño 3.4 is down to 0.0C and Niño 1+2 goes up to +2.0C.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C

#12992 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 28, 2023 11:14 am

Per the RMM charts, MJO is now in the circle. What it does next over the next 30 days will determine whether we'll see El Nino or not.

NCEP models show it getting stronger over the WPAC by mid April.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C

#12993 Postby JetFuel_SE » Tue Mar 28, 2023 11:45 am

Kingarabian wrote:Per the RMM charts, MJO is now in the circle. What it does next over the next 30 days will determine whether we'll see El Nino or not.

NCEP models show it getting stronger over the WPAC by mid April.

Image
BoM model has it in the WPAC by the end of March.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C

#12994 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 28, 2023 12:00 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C

#12995 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:44 pm

1+2 on fire.

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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C

#12996 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 28, 2023 4:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:1+2 on fire.

https://i.imgur.com/4pfgxcL.jpg

Yeah, Joe Bastardi mentioned that CFSv2 has the Nino 3 to be +3°C Super Nino mode.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1640382861357326337


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12997 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:00 pm

The Aussies are with a strong El Niño.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12998 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:The Aussies are with a strong El Niño.

https://i.imgur.com/PWgBtLi.jpg

Oh lord have mercy, +3°C? That is even more insane than the 2015 Super El Nino!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12999 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:14 pm

While I wouldn't be surprised to see an El Nino, how confident are we at this point about the strength of El Nino, SPB in mind? I gotta say, I was more under the impression that we'd see a weak or moderate event; some of these predictions calling for a rapid warmup to strong or very strong levels are, quite frankly, pretty startling. :eek:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13000 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:33 pm

This event IF it materializes will not be anything more than a +1C/+1.2C moderate event. Something similar to 2009. Similar PDO/PMM/SOI situation in 2009. Look at the past super El Nino's and the amount of sub surface OHC. Then look at the type of WWB's they had before the summer.
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