Kingarabian wrote:This event IF it materializes will not be anything more than a +1C/+1.2C moderate event. Something similar to 2009. Similar PDO/PMM/SOI situation in 2009. Look at the past super El Nino's and the amount of sub surface OHC. Then look at the type of WWB's they had before the summer.
2009 was a moderate to strong event, wasn't it? And tbh it seems like this year is already ahead of that year, especially sub surface-wise.
Personally I don't see any reason yet to speculate a strong event a la 1997 or 2015, but if the forecasted MJO resurgence in the WPAC by April indeed becomes strong, I think the idea won't be too far-fetched. If I'm not mistaken the WWBs that got the 1997 event going occurred in April, the same time Category 5 typhoon Isa was spawned.
EDIT: Also adding 1972 to my argument because that year ended up strong despite -PDO.