ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Went through a bunch of Nino SSTAs and it resembles more of the Super events than even the strong events at this stage. The other mod-strong events don't have the equatorial warm tongue from the east like this early. Only 1997-2015 have it in June. I think it will end up a notch below them in terms of ONI since the other two had a stronger PDO response, but probably higher than years like 1965, 1991, and 2009.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks similar to 1997 and 2015. I think a super is possible.

[Kingarabian]

Went through a bunch of Nino SSTAs and it resembles more of the Super events than even the strong events at this stage. The other mod-strong events don't have the equatorial warm tongue from the east like this early. Only 1997-2015 have it in June. I think it will end up a notch below them in terms of ONI since the other two had a stronger PDO response, but probably higher than years like 1965, 1991, and 2009.

https://i.imgur.com/z6qbDpO.png


https://i.imgur.com/0gCnIbU.png

https://i.imgur.com/ze0U32x.png

Agree. Another big issue that could cap the strength of this event is that 1997 and 2015 had warmer sub surfaces east of 180E.

Zonal wind profiles for 1997 and 2015 had much more defined westerlies than what we're seeing and forecasting so far.

[Yellow Evan]

SST wise we are not going to have any problems reaching strong El Nino. With the rest of the global tropics so warm and lack of reinforcements through +PDO, it will be hard achieving the atmospheric state that other strong Ninos such as 1987 and 1991 reached and we do not quite have the sub-surface SSTA that super events of 1997 and 2015 had (we don't have sub-surface data further back unfourtanetly). To pour additional cold water on an atmospheric response akin to a super Nino, 1972, a rare super Nino with a -PDO, differs from this this year in that it had a really cool tropical Atlantic that helped focus rising motion over the Pacific and eventually achieve super level atmospheric coupling.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

:uarrow: SST wise we are not going to have any problems reaching strong El Nino. With the rest of the global tropics so warm and lack of reinforcements through +PDO, it will be hard achieving the atmospheric state that other strong Ninos such as 1987 and 1991 reached and we do not quite have the sub-surface SSTA that super events of 1997 and 2015 had (we don't have sub-surface data further back unfourtanetly). To poor additional cold water on an atmospheric response akin to a super Nino, 1972, a rare super Nino with a -PDO, differs from this this year in that it had a really cool tropical Atlantic that helped focus rising motion over the Pacific and eventually achieve super level atmospheric coupling.

There's a lot of variables this year that we don't normally see with an El Niño of this caliber which is why I'm so curious to see how things pan out with this event.

[JetFuel_SE]

:uarrow: SST wise we are not going to have any problems reaching strong El Nino. With the rest of the global tropics so warm and lack of reinforcements through +PDO, it will be hard achieving the atmospheric state that other strong Ninos such as 1987 and 1991 reached and we do not quite have the sub-surface SSTA that super events of 1997 and 2015 had (we don't have sub-surface data further back unfourtanetly). To poor additional cold water on an atmospheric response akin to a super Nino, 1972, a rare super Nino with a -PDO, differs from this this year in that it had a really cool tropical Atlantic that helped focus rising motion over the Pacific and eventually achieve super level atmospheric coupling.

There's a lot of variables this year that we don't normally see with an El Niño of this caliber which is why I'm so curious to see how things pan out with this event.

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1667202255492366336

[LarryWx]

Correction time in 3.4 (I assume only for short term): 24 hour cooloffs

-CDAS has cooled 0.061, largest cooling since Mar 19th

-Coral Reef has cooled 0.081, largest cooling since before Mar 15th

[LarryWx]

Correction time in 3.4 (I assume only for short term): 24 hour cooloffs

-CDAS has cooled 0.061, largest cooling since Mar 19th

-Coral Reef has cooled 0.081, largest 24 hour cooling since before Mar 15th

OISSTv2.1 cooled 0.078, largest 24 hour cooling since before 3/15

While these are notable, I'm confident that these are just short term "corrections" after a very rapid warming.

[Kingarabian]

The current -NPMM and -PDO combo + El Nino doesn't compare with other similar years like 2009. They're both cooling rather than warming. 2009 is no longer an analog in that regard.

[LarryWx]

The assumed short-lived coolings have gone into day 2. We'll see whether or not they're about to end:

6/10/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.06
Coral Reef Watch: 0.08
OISSTv2.1: 0.08

6/11/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.09 (to 0.825)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.06 (to 0.935)
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 (to 0.915)
-------------------

Edit: my educated guess for tomorrow's weekly release is either +0.9 or +1.0 in Nino 3.4. Any other guesses?

[Kingarabian]

The assumed short-lived coolings have gone into day 2. We'll see whether or not they're about to end:

6/10/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.06
Coral Reef Watch: 0.08
OISSTv2.1: 0.08

6/11/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.09 (to 0.825)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.06 (to 0.935)
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 (to 0.915)
-------------------

Edit: my educated guess for tomorrow's weekly release is either +0.9 or +1.0 in Nino 3.4. Any other guesses?

About +0.9C I think. But we've seen them swing Nino 3.4 values sharply higher or lower regardless of the satellite estimates.

[Ntxw]

All regions warmed. 3.4 will be 0.9C.

[LarryWx]

All regions warmed. 3.4 will be 0.9C.

For those who don't realize it, the 0.9 is for the prior calendar week centered on June 7th.

Meanwhile, the "correctional" cooling has gone into a 3rd day. I'm guessing that they're about to end:

6/10/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.06
Coral Reef Watch: 0.08
OISSTv2.1: 0.08

6/11/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.09 (to 0.825)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.06 (to 0.935)
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 (to 0.915)

6/12/23 coolings:

CDAS: 0.07 (to 0.752)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.03 (to 0.903)   
OISSTv2.1: 0.03 (to 0.888)

[Ntxw]

All regions warmed. 3.4 will be 0.9C.

For those who don't realize it, the 0.9 is for the prior calendar week centered on June 7th.

Meanwhile, the "correctional" cooling has gone into a 3rd day. I'm guessing that they're about to end:

6/10/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.06
Coral Reef Watch: 0.08
OISSTv2.1: 0.08

6/11/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.09 (to 0.825)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.06 (to 0.935)
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 (to 0.915)

6/12/23 coolings:

CDAS: 0.07 (to 0.752)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.03 (to 0.903)   
OISSTv2.1: 0.03 (to 0.888)

We'll likely see a stall from the warming continue this week. Slightly above normal trades between IDL and 120W but will reverse course with weakening trades. ~>2C is already showing up near 140W, a weakening of the trades will close the gap in the CPAC. Downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave is making a move and will instigate further warming when it happens.

[LarryWx]

Today shows another (4th) day of cooling in all 3 daily updated datasets that I've been following.

6/13/23 coolings:

CDAS: 0.04 to 0.715
Coral Reef Watch: 0.03 to 0.872
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 to 0.845


Four day cooling from June 9th to 13th

CDAS: 0.26
Coral Reef Watch: 0.20
OISSTv2.1: 0.19


Four days of cooling averaged over the three datasets:

0.07, 0.06, 0.04, 0.04

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/AlexSKolker/status/1668953937402052609




The question is will the Atlantic nino counter the pacific one to allow for a more active season?

[St0rmTh0r]

https://twitter.com/AlexSKolker/status/1668953937402052609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1668953937402052609%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

The question is will the Atlantic nino counter the pacific one to allow for a more active season?

ok never seen this anyone have more info?

[Dean_175]

https://twitter.com/AlexSKolker/status/1668953937402052609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1668953937402052609%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

The question is will the Atlantic nino counter the pacific one to allow for a more active season?

That arrow in the Atlantic points to warm anomalies north of the equator. I have never heard of this Atlantic Nino Dakar. Is it the same thing as the traditional Atlantic Nino/equatorial mode that is located in the Atlantic and centered on the equator like regular ENSO or is it a some sort of different phenomenon involving temperature anomalies further north?

For those that don't know: the Atlantic has an analog of ENSO located along the equator. It doesn't really cycle - likely because it doesn't couple with the annual climatology as well as ENSO does with the Atlantic being smaller in width (it takes much less than a year for transfer of warmth to occur between Africa and SAmerica) and because it is much weaker than ENSO and gets dominated by other factors. As a result it is instead more episodic. Early 1997 is a good example of a relatively robust "Atlantic Nina". It is wind/convection driven (similar to ENSO and unlike the AMO) but because of the small size of the equatorial Atlantic, is more of a curiosity than a signal with strong influence on global climate or hurricane activity.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/AlexSKolker/status/1668953937402052609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1668953937402052609%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

The question is will the Atlantic nino counter the pacific one to allow for a more active season?

That arrow in the Atlantic points to warm anomalies north of the equator. I have never heard of this Atlantic Nino Dakar. Is it the same thing as the traditional Atlantic Nino/equatorial mode that is located in the Atlantic and centered on the equator like regular ENSO or is it a some sort of different phenomenon involving temperature anomalies further north?

A fancy way of saying a +AMM probably?

[Kingarabian]

A positive AMM correlates with an active Atlantic hurricane season. But there's not much proof that an Atlantic Nino does the same.