ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12521 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 21, 2022 4:54 pm

Kingarabian, when will the trade winds increase again?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12522 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 21, 2022 5:00 pm

:uarrow:

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The upcoming CCKW and possibility of it being followed by MJO passage makes me skeptical we’ll get strong trades for a few weeks.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12523 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 21, 2022 5:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian, when will the trade winds increase again?

Models will probably start to show strong trades around the mid June mark for July. There will be above average trades for the next week or less followed by very weak trades until about mid June.

Hard to see any drastic ENSO change. SOI remains positive and we've yet to record a negative daily in more than 30 days. May should end above the +8 La Nina threshold.

Years like 2006 and 2009 that had late spring El Nino's, had negative SOI's during May and the thermocline was much more suppressed.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12524 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 22, 2022 11:17 pm

Latest CFS wants to bring Nino 3.4 back up to -0.3C by July before dropping again.
Kinda skeptical because the downwelling KW on PENTAD seems to be stagnant and is weakening in strength.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12525 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 23, 2022 4:32 pm

Nino 3.4 remains at -1.1C.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12526 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2022 5:31 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Nino 3.4 remains at -1.1C.


Here is the whole discussion by CPC.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12527 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:17 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12528 Postby crownweather » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:20 pm



Geez, 1893 (#2) , 1989 (#3) & 2008 (#4) all very active and very destructive hurricane seasons.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12529 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:32 pm

crownweather wrote:


Geez, 1893 (#2) , 1989 (#3) & 2008 (#4) all very active and very destructive hurricane seasons.


So 1989 did have Hugo but it was an average season by numbers.

Also, when looking at costliest/destructive seasons on record, only 2008 makes the list as #8
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12530 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:59 pm

skyline385 wrote:
crownweather wrote:


Geez, 1893 (#2) , 1989 (#3) & 2008 (#4) all very active and very destructive hurricane seasons.


So 1989 did have Hugo but it was an average season by numbers.


-amo regime so not comparable
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12531 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:05 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
crownweather wrote:
Geez, 1893 (#2) , 1989 (#3) & 2008 (#4) all very active and very destructive hurricane seasons.


So 1989 did have Hugo but it was an average season by numbers.


-amo regime so not comparable


Agreed, I was simply expanding on the original post
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12532 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:25 pm

skyline385 wrote:
crownweather wrote:


Geez, 1893 (#2) , 1989 (#3) & 2008 (#4) all very active and very destructive hurricane seasons.


So 1989 did have Hugo but it was an average season by numbers.

Also, when looking at costliest/destructive seasons on record, only 2008 makes the list as #8

Careful about using cost to determine the destructiveness of a season; such a metric is inevitably biased towards more recent seasons, primarily due to inflation and population growth near coastlines. In particular, 1893's storm count is likely undervalued due to the lack of modern technology, and yet it was still one of the most deadly and destructive seasons of all time in the North Atlantic. 1955's (#7 on that list) season was also the costliest of all time when it occurred and was responsible for the deaths of over a thousand people. 1950 (#8) was also very active, with several landfalling hurricanes on the contiguous United States and in the Caribbean; not to mention 2008, which featured all but one tropical cyclone affecting land to some degree.

While yes, you are correct in saying that 1989 was not quite as active, that was likely due to the ongoing -AMO event (whether AMO is natural or based upon anthropogenic aerosols is a debate for a different channel) and so generating a storm as fierce and destructive as Hugo is still impressive. A similar argument can be made for 1971 (#10) as well, though it had a little more activity overall.

This is not to say that this measurement is foolproof; even with modern technology 1890 (#6) would likely still be a below-average season, and 1873 (#9) and 1910 (#5) likely wouldn't be above average either, despite their powerful late-season storms. However, it would be silly to discount it outright without considering context for each season and the numerous fatalities/powerful landfalling systems that these seasons brought.

Anyway, this has gotten quite a bit astray from the topic in question, and I apologize for letting myself get away a bit from the focus of this thread. Back to watching warm subsurface pool changes in the Pacific!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12533 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:43 pm

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
crownweather wrote:
Geez, 1893 (#2) , 1989 (#3) & 2008 (#4) all very active and very destructive hurricane seasons.


So 1989 did have Hugo but it was an average season by numbers.

Also, when looking at costliest/destructive seasons on record, only 2008 makes the list as #8

Careful about using cost to determine the destructiveness of a season; such a metric is inevitably biased towards more recent seasons, primarily due to inflation and population growth near coastlines. In particular, 1893's storm count is likely undervalued due to the lack of modern technology, and yet it was still one of the most deadly and destructive seasons of all time in the North Atlantic. 1955's (#7 on that list) season was also the costliest of all time when it occurred and was responsible for the deaths of over a thousand people. 1950 (#8) was also very active, with several landfalling hurricanes on the contiguous United States and in the Caribbean; not to mention 2008, which featured all but one tropical cyclone affecting land to some degree.

While yes, you are correct in saying that 1989 was not quite as active, that was likely due to the ongoing -AMO event (whether AMO is natural or based upon anthropogenic aerosols is a debate for a different channel) and so generating a storm as fierce and destructive as Hugo is still impressive. A similar argument can be made for 1971 (#10) as well, though it had a little more activity overall.

This is not to say that this measurement is foolproof; even with modern technology 1890 (#6) would likely still be a below-average season, and 1873 (#9) and 1910 (#5) likely wouldn't be above average either, despite their powerful late-season storms. However, it would be silly to discount it outright without considering context for each season and the numerous fatalities/powerful landfalling systems that these seasons brought.

Anyway, this has gotten quite a bit astray from the topic in question, and I apologize for letting myself get away a bit from the focus of this thread. Back to watching warm subsurface pool changes in the Pacific!


Good points, however I just wanted to add that death counts for older seasons are always going to be much higher because of the lack of communications/warning systems compared to today and weaker infrastructure. Even with the population growth near coastlines you will almost never see a death count today comparable to 100 years ago which is obviously very good, however it makes it a poor metric for comparison for the destructiveness of a system.

Anyways I would like to apologize too for getting slightly off-topic; like you said, back to monitoring blue and red patterns on the sea.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12534 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:45 am

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1532075079794032640




La Nina's impacts continue. This is quite a robust pattern in today's climate and is indicative to the entrenchment of the Nina.

As someone living near Portland, complete flip from the 2014-2019 +PDO regime.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12535 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:49 am

2010, not coincidentally, was one of the strongest Ninas observed and set within a broader -PDO regime.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12536 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:19 am

OISST and CDAS showing Nino 3.4 climbing this past week to near -0.65C. That would be a big jump if the CPC agrees on Monday. Nonetheless by July 1st, Nino 3.4 will likely begin to drop and eventually get back closer to -1.0C.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12537 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:23 pm

The latest weekly as well as May, 2022, overall, were the coldest for their respective periods in Nino 3.4 since 1999:

Weekly: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... st9120.for

Monthly:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... 1-20.ascii

Related to this, the met. spring SOI of +16.8 was the 2nd highest on record by a good margin going back to 1876. Only 1917's +18.3 was higher:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Sea ... 89Base.txt
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC update has Niño 3.4 at -0.9C

#12538 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:14 am

CPC update of 6/6/22 has Niño 3.4 at -0.9C.

Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12539 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:33 am

Should start decreasing again I believe. The heatwave in Texas firing up is indicative of a strengthening La Niña presence once again. IMHUO
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12540 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 06, 2022 12:48 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Should start decreasing again I believe. The heatwave in Texas firing up is indicative of a strengthening La Niña presence once again. IMHUO


I think the heatwave could also be the result of the strong La Nina that has been ongoing throughout spring. The effects are just now becoming evident with the strengthening ridge.
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