ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#12561 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:23 am

3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#12562 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jun 12, 2022 10:47 am



We might be looking at a good amount of warming between Nino 3 and 4 for the next week

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#12563 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 12, 2022 12:45 pm


There hasnt been a traditional upwelling KW from the WPAC->EPAC in more than a year. That hasnt stopped a 2nd and third year La Nina. Instead, persistent easterlies near the dateline and CPAC have created upwelling anomalies and moving them east.

Trades are getting stronger over the dateline and CPAC per the models so expect more subsurface negative anomalies in the next few months.
5 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#12564 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:10 pm

CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly Update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.7C

#12565 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:14 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1037
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: ENSO Updates

#12566 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.


What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?
0 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ENSO Updates

#12567 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:54 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.


What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?

30%. 3.4 is about to start cooling again and sharply as well. Nino 1.2 is rapidly cooling and I believe 3.4 will soon follow. While they are only loosely correlated I still think it’s indicative.
3 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1037
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: ENSO Updates

#12568 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:58 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.


What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?

30%. 3.4 is about to start cooling again and sharply as well. Nino 1.2 is rapidly cooling and I believe 3.4 will soon follow. While they are only loosely correlated I still think it’s indicative.


So would you say moderate La Niña is most likely?
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#12569 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:02 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.


What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?

It'll be La Nina for ASO. The take away from today's update is that Nino 3.4 is warming slower compared to the CFS. Per the CPC's warming trends for Nino 3.4 in the last 2 weeks, we may not even get past -0.5C. Other agencies such as the BOM have Nino 3.4 @ -0.42C though.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ENSO Updates

#12570 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:33 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.


What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?

It'll be La Nina for ASO. The take away from today's update is that Nino 3.4 is warming slower compared to the CFS. Per the CPC's warming trends for Nino 3.4 in the last 2 weeks, we may not even get past -0.5C. Other agencies such as the BOM have Nino 3.4 @ -0.3C though.


Why does the CFSv2 still show ENSO neutral for this winter? It is approaching summer, so we should be past the spring predictability barrier.
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#12571 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:41 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?

It'll be La Nina for ASO. The take away from today's update is that Nino 3.4 is warming slower compared to the CFS. Per the CPC's warming trends for Nino 3.4 in the last 2 weeks, we may not even get past -0.5C. Other agencies such as the BOM have Nino 3.4 @ -0.3C though.


Why does the CFSv2 still show ENSO neutral for this winter? It is approaching summer, so we should be past the spring predictability barrier.

Latest CFS shows La Nina for OND. Then shows cool neutral for NDJ/DJF. That sounds about right if we're going with climo and expecting +ENSO forcing to return. MJO becomes active again during the fall.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#12572 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:09 pm

CFS starting to back off on Nino 3.4 going above the La Nina threshold.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ENSO Updates

#12573 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Jun 17, 2022 4:09 pm

The SOI is consistently negative, yet the equatorial Pacific continues to warm.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#12574 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:10 pm

:uarrow: You mean positive?
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#12575 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2022 7:14 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ENSO Updates

#12576 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Jun 18, 2022 7:36 am

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: You mean positive?


Yes

Still, this makes little sense
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#12577 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 18, 2022 12:14 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: You mean positive?


Yes

Still, this makes little sense

There's trades for days in CPAC which reflects off of a positive SOi very well.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#12578 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:13 pm

The upcoming trade burst will be the start of the atmosphere stunting anymore +ENSO progression. Just shows how warm subsurface anomalies are wasted when the atmosphere does not respond.

Look how it's influencing the CFS:
Image

That's not a La Nina modoki look for ASO.
8 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 847
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: ENSO Updates

#12579 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Jun 18, 2022 4:48 pm

May PDO came in at -1.92, down from -1.51 in April.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#12580 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2022 5:05 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:May PDO came in at -1.92, down from -1.51 in April.


That is a lot in only a month.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, Google Adsense [Bot], KirbyDude25 and 42 guests