ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12441 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:37 pm

Holy Nina.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12442 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:43 pm



Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12443 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:51 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:


Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.


Yeah such a hard rise in April is usually reserved for entrenched Ninas or really big ones. Seasonal variability tends to favor -SOI in April.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12444 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:58 pm

Ntxw wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:


Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.


Yeah such a hard rise in April is usually reserved for entrenched Ninas or really big ones. Seasonal variability tends to favor -SOI in April.


Honestly, I am extremely curious to see how this "entrenchment" of the La Nina will impact both EPAC and Atlantic hurricane seasons, particularly after the 2015 Super El Nino. This is the first time since 2011 or so that a La Nina never died during the spring.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12445 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:49 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.


Yeah such a hard rise in April is usually reserved for entrenched Ninas or really big ones. Seasonal variability tends to favor -SOI in April.


Honestly, I am extremely curious to see how this "entrenchment" of the La Nina will impact both EPAC and Atlantic hurricane seasons, particularly after the 2015 Super El Nino. This is the first time since 2011 or so that a La Nina never died during the spring.

2011 actually looked like it went neutral during the spring/early summer. You'd probably have to go back even further to like 2000 to find an example of a Niña that persisted throughout the spring and summer, and even then I doubt it was at the intensity it is at right now.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12446 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:06 pm


Yeah this 3-peat Nina is probably for the record books.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12447 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:12 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:


Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.


I initially thought that Nino 3.4 would at least warm closer -0.3C ish. But that has failed to occur. This is despite the very impressive WPAC warm pool spawning a legit downwelling KW in December/January, that even erupted in the EPAC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12448 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Apr 27, 2022 11:04 pm

Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12449 Postby JetFuel_SE » Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:11 am

dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.

Don't think that has ever happened?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12450 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:49 am

JetFuel_SE wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.

Don't think that has ever happened?


Correct me if I'm wrong but somehow 1976 and 2001 are 4thyr La Niña events. They recorded more than 5 months of consecutive <-0.5C ONI.

Edit: I don't have time to recheck right now but there might be some inaccuracies in my recollection. :lol: 2001 could have been a cold neutral instead of La Niña, also 1986 seems to be borderline weak La Niña/cold neutral so you may want to add that year as 4peat La Niña as well.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12451 Postby Foxfires » Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:49 am

dexterlabio wrote:
JetFuel_SE wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.

Don't think that has ever happened?


Correct me if I'm wrong but somehow 1976 and 2001 are 4thyr La Niña events. They recorded more than 5 months of consecutive <-0.5C ONI.

Edit: I don't have time to recheck right now but there might be some inaccuracies in my recollection. :lol: 2001 could have been a cold neutral instead of La Niña, also 1986 seems to be borderline weak La Niña/cold neutral so you may want to add that year as 4peat La Niña as well.


Image
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1976 & 2001 were both La Niña, although neither lasted the entire year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12452 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:58 am

dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.


Yeah would be interesting indeed. In my opinion though, if not a warm +ENSO state (particularly an El Niño), I would imagine that the coolest 2023 could be would be cool neutral (kind of like 2001 or 2013), although that does not mean historical standards can be broken and we see a 4th year La Niña, which would be absolutely unbelievable and mind-blowing. We’ll see though, but having a potential 8th consecutive above average and damaging Atlantic Hurricane season is the last thing I want lol
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12453 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:29 pm

Foxfires wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:
JetFuel_SE wrote:Don't think that has ever happened?


Correct me if I'm wrong but somehow 1976 and 2001 are 4thyr La Niña events. They recorded more than 5 months of consecutive <-0.5C ONI.

Edit: I don't have time to recheck right now but there might be some inaccuracies in my recollection. :lol: 2001 could have been a cold neutral instead of La Niña, also 1986 seems to be borderline weak La Niña/cold neutral so you may want to add that year as 4peat La Niña as well.


https://i.imgur.com/93ozd9Q.png
https://i.imgur.com/SRi5b8R.png

1976 & 2001 were both La Niña, although neither lasted the entire year.

The 1975 and 2000 La Ninas extended into 1976 and 2001 but those years themselves didn't have the CPC required 5 tri-monthlies to qualify as La Nina years. Like the 2015 Super El Nino that extended into 2016 but 2016 was a La Nina year.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12454 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:28 am

Talk about constructive interference...strong EWB in the Pacific coming up in correspondence with a strong IO WWB.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12455 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 30, 2022 2:08 am

SOI the highest it's been in 10 years.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12456 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 02, 2022 10:26 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12457 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 02, 2022 2:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow, since 1999. Kingarabian , what do you think of the 1999 milestone?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1521146963416080387

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf


It's impressive and even more so when you look at the subsurface and lack of very cool anomalies (less than -5C ). Just shows how strong the trades have been. Makes you wonder how much lower Nino 3.4 can get because the subsurface will only get cooler below the Central and Eastern Pacific basins.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12458 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon May 02, 2022 3:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wow, since 1999. Kingarabian , what do you think of the 1999 milestone?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1521146963416080387

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf


It's impressive and even more so when you look at the subsurface and lack of very cool anomalies (less than -5C ). Just shows how strong the trades have been. Makes you wonder how much lower Nino 3.4 can get because the subsurface will only get cooler below the Central and Eastern Pacific basins.

Doesn't La Niña usually weaken during April/May? This is concerning...
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -1.1C / Coldest April since 1999

#12459 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 02, 2022 4:21 pm

5-year La Nina, here we come! :D :lol: :D :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -1.1C / Coldest April since 1999

#12460 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 02, 2022 4:24 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:5-year La Nina, here we come! :D :lol: :D :lol:

That would be really bad for the W/SW-CONUS. :sun: :sun:
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