ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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Re: ENSO Updates
I feel like models are too aggressive in terms of transition to Nino given this nonstop EWB... Models might trend downward like they did this January.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ENSO Updates
I have a question. Does anybody know how exactly 1959-1962 featured 4 straight years with no La Nina or El Nino? That seems pretty remarkable imho
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Re: ENSO Updates
weeniepatrol wrote:Uhh, OK then
I'm sure some kind of Darwin low had to have skewed this, but nonetheless I've never seen daily readings in excess of +50. 30-day went from +4 to +17 in like three weeks..
https://i.imgur.com/LGCsJI7.png
Yeah like zzzh said, there's a TC near Darwin.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Category5Kaiju wrote:I have a question. Does anybody know how exactly 1959-1962 featured 4 straight years with no La Nina or El Nino? That seems pretty remarkable imho
It's likely there was a La Nina nested between those years. Official records that far back aren't 100% precise, especially when we're talking about a 0.1/0.2 degrees difference between La Nina and neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:I have a question. Does anybody know how exactly 1959-1962 featured 4 straight years with no La Nina or El Nino? That seems pretty remarkable imho
It's likely there was a La Nina nested between those years. Official records that far back aren't 100% precise, especially when we're talking about a 0.1/0.2 degrees difference between La Nina and neutral.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1490412985856053248
Sure but ^ is also true. ENSO amplitude was low from the 30s to the 60s and high in the 80s to 00s. The high ENSO variability observed fairly recently isn’t the norm.
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC Weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.8C
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Re: ENSO Updates
Big WPAC MJO hasnt shown up yet for January on the models. We'll see how it evolves in mid February.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Is still early to make a definite call. Good thread with the replies.
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1609673526365097986
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1609688325085925376
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1609689343358296064
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1609674914339950592
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1609675402749911040
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1609673526365097986
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1609688325085925376
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1609689343358296064
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1609674914339950592
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1609675402749911040
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Re: ENSO Updates
The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.
Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.
I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.
Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.
I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.
Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.
I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.
So would you say that it would be good odds to place on something such as cool neutral, where the atmosphere does just enough to allow us to leave La Nina but not enough to warm the Pacific to the point we have warm neutral (or El Nino for that matter?) At least, recent CFV2 runs seem to really like the idea of cool neutral though I'm not sure how reliable that might be.
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Re: ENSO Updates
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1610107863380156422
This is basically where I am.
1 WWB is what’s probably needed for +ENSO and 2 for El Niño. The modeled trade pattern isn’t even that bad for Nino prospects as the westerlies and rising motion near 120-130E favor enhanced convection which through positive feedbacks lead to warmer waters beneath the surface and relaxed trades favor less upwelling and warmer waters beneath the surface, which in the long term can contribute to the development of El Niño if the subsurface warmth makes it to the EPAC and surfaces there. What cannot happen is MJO can’t reenter the IO and linger there.
This is basically where I am.
1 WWB is what’s probably needed for +ENSO and 2 for El Niño. The modeled trade pattern isn’t even that bad for Nino prospects as the westerlies and rising motion near 120-130E favor enhanced convection which through positive feedbacks lead to warmer waters beneath the surface and relaxed trades favor less upwelling and warmer waters beneath the surface, which in the long term can contribute to the development of El Niño if the subsurface warmth makes it to the EPAC and surfaces there. What cannot happen is MJO can’t reenter the IO and linger there.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.7C
Niño 3.4 warmed up to -0.7C in this week's update.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates
Category5Kaiju wrote:Kingarabian wrote:The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.
Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.
I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.
So would you say that it would be good odds to place on something such as cool neutral, where the atmosphere does just enough to allow us to leave La Nina but not enough to warm the Pacific to the point we have warm neutral (or El Nino for that matter?) At least, recent CFV2 runs seem to really like the idea of cool neutral though I'm not sure how reliable that might be.
I think the odds for a neutral ENSO are much higher than both El Nino or La Nina. But the type of neutral, warm or cool, will still have big ramifications on the hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.
Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.
I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.
The way there have been continuous EWBs but Nino3.4 is no longer cooling down below -1C...I agree that getting an El Niño is still a long shot, with the failure to have significant WWBs in the Pacific. However, I tend to agree as well that we need only one potent WWB event to flip the ENSO state to the positive side.
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Re: ENSO Updates
dexterlabio wrote:Kingarabian wrote:The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.
Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.
I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.
The way there have been continuous EWBs but Nino3.4 is no longer cooling down below -1C...I agree that getting an El Niño is still a long shot, with the failure to have significant WWBs in the Pacific. However, I tend to agree as well that we need only one potent WWB event to flip the ENSO state to the positive side.
I agree 1 WWB flips everything. But how do we get that WWB without a favorable background state (PDO/PMM, low level bias).
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Re: ENSO Updates
SOI index still stupidly positive, as of 1/5/2022, no negative daily reading since December 13th, 2022.
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Re: ENSO Updates
This is one of the best twitter treads I have seen about the state of ENSO.
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045313870954515
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045316601462784
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045319315161111
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045324801310724
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045327536271363
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045330379849728
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045333210890243
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045335748558848
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045338688675845
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045341834403841
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045313870954515
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045316601462784
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045319315161111
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045324801310724
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045327536271363
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045330379849728
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045333210890243
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045335748558848
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045338688675845
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1611045341834403841
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Re: ENSO Updates
PDO is still solidly negative. Don't think we see a very strong or super Nino (of course) this coming year. NPAC warm pool resembles something like early 2014, maybe we see a headfake-Nino where the atmosphere will try but the Ocean says not yet. Or a late blooming one like that year which was designated as a Nino after the fact at the time.
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