ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12481 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 06, 2022 6:44 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:Will this La Nina be a classic La Nina or a La Nina Modoki? Currently, the Nino 1+2 SSTA is slightly below that of the Nino 3.4 SSTA, which would suggest a classic La Nina, but the CFSv2, ECMWF, and CMC are all suggesting a La Nina Modoki.


Can't see why it wouldn't be classic. Not sure what models are doing here
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12482 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat May 07, 2022 5:32 am

NotSparta wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:Will this La Nina be a classic La Nina or a La Nina Modoki? Currently, the Nino 1+2 SSTA is slightly below that of the Nino 3.4 SSTA, which would suggest a classic La Nina, but the CFSv2, ECMWF, and CMC are all suggesting a La Nina Modoki.


Can't see why it wouldn't be classic. Not sure what models are doing here


2021 was a La Nina Modoki; for ASO 2021, the Nino 1+2 areas had higher SSTAs than Nino 3.4.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12483 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 07, 2022 1:48 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12484 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Sat May 07, 2022 6:14 pm

People love to throw the word "Modoki" around whenever 1+2 has less extreme anomalies than 3.4, but iirc isn't the term reserved for when 1+2 has solidly opposite anomalies to 3.4? (i.e. isn't a Modoki La Nina simultaneously a west-based La Nina and east-based El Nino)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12485 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat May 07, 2022 6:23 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:People love to throw the word "Modoki" around whenever 1+2 has less extreme anomalies than 3.4, but iirc isn't the term reserved for when 1+2 has solidly opposite anomalies to 3.4? (i.e. isn't a Modoki La Nina simultaneously a west-based La Nina and east-based El Nino)


2011 had negative Nino 1+2 and negative Nino 3.4 anomalies, but the Nino 1+2 anomalies were less extreme than the Nino 3.4 anomalies, making the La Nina "Modoki"; you could tell, especially given the fact that the EPac was more active than expected and that the NAtl was less active than expected.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12486 Postby NotSparta » Sat May 07, 2022 6:51 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:People love to throw the word "Modoki" around whenever 1+2 has less extreme anomalies than 3.4, but iirc isn't the term reserved for when 1+2 has solidly opposite anomalies to 3.4? (i.e. isn't a Modoki La Nina simultaneously a west-based La Nina and east-based El Nino)


Yes, you'd want a full-on warm tongue in the eastern Pacific for it to be Modoki. We don't have that (in fact 1+2 is significantly cooler than 3.4 right now). Lots of people call an event Modoki when it really isn't. Bit of an overused term
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12487 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 07, 2022 8:37 pm

Nino 1+2 fluctuates very easily since it's shallow. Need at least 2 month period of sustained anomalies drastically opposite of those at Nino 3.4 before Modoki can be considered.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12488 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 07, 2022 9:07 pm



With the La Niña this strong already in the Spring Barrier Period, is it possible to have a Super La Niña in the Fall? :eek:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12489 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat May 07, 2022 11:15 pm

Iceresistance wrote:


With the La Niña this strong already in the Spring Barrier Period, is it possible to have a Super La Niña in the Fall? :eek:

Don't think it'll quite get to strong levels but I do think it'll be solidly moderate.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12490 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 07, 2022 11:37 pm

There will be a period of slow trades next week duo to MJO passage. Models don't show a WWB of any sort though. Trades will pickup again during the last 10 days of May. Cooler anomalies should continue to build at the subsurface east of the dateline since we've seen non stop trades for about a month now.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.2C / Lowest May data since 2000

#12491 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 09, 2022 6:40 pm

La Niña keeps going in a good way with this -1.2C reading for May since 2000.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1523799992473108480


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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.2C / Lowest May data since 2000

#12492 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 09, 2022 7:12 pm



Interestingly, these are the coldest weekly values since the latest La Niña began. Don't usually see that in May
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.2C / Lowest May data since 2000

#12493 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 09, 2022 7:26 pm

Also not sure what the models that bring Nino 3.4 back up to -0.5C by JJA are seeing. There are no signs of a east moving downwelling KW anywhere near the surface from the dateline to 80W.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.2C / Lowest May data since 2000

#12494 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 09, 2022 7:53 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.2C / Lowest May data since 2000

#12495 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 10, 2022 9:28 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.2C / Lowest May data since 2000

#12496 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue May 10, 2022 11:47 am

Sooo, anyone know the daily + record for this?

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.2C / Lowest May data since 2000

#12497 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 10, 2022 2:45 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:Sooo, anyone know the daily + record for this?

https://i.imgur.com/elVj65F.png

There's +50s. But those were more to do with TC's near Darwin than La Nina forcing.

But a +40 like today's reading is the result of some pretty beastly Nina forcing.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12498 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 11, 2022 9:14 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12499 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 11, 2022 11:43 am

I'm surprised there's still talk about an ENSO transition in 2022. All because some crappy model consensus which don't even show warm neutral.

I agree with everything Eric Webb said (which reaffirms everything that's been said on here for the past month).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12500 Postby Ntxw » Wed May 11, 2022 11:50 am

Kingarabian wrote:I'm surprised there's still talk about an ENSO transition in 2022. All because some crappy model consensus which don't even show warm neutral.

I agree with everything Eric Webb said (which reaffirms everything that's been said on here for the past month).


At this rate the transition is to high end moderate or strong La Nina if anything.
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