ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12541 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:31 pm

Crazy ONI print.

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12542 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:18 pm

Massive discrepancy between TAO and GODAS/PENTAD at the subsurface.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12543 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Massive discrepancy between TAO and GODAS/PENTAD at the subsurface.


Massive? Bring both for the members to see them and make the comparisons.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12544 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:15 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12545 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:11 pm

:uarrow:
Per the CPC, the SST rise at Nino 3.4 is not as dramatic. Models are unanimous in this being a temporary phase. Climo favors -ENSO all the way as well.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12546 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:41 pm

The warming was a pretty well predicted one with recent cckw movement across the Pacific. But since then it has subdued. Background state is stable with SOI rising after a short fall. -PDO from NCEI strengthened from April to May. There isn't any real WWBs forecasted to disrupt the current regime.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12547 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:03 am



Agatha and the CAG were too far north to affect ENSO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12548 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:13 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12549 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Lowest ONI record low for May.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1534206088953835521


Given that this is a record low event for the past 150 years, that would suggest that another event of similar magnitude is rather unlikely for the next 30 years at least. However, that does not mean another event will not occur.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12550 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 08, 2022 4:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Massive discrepancy between TAO and GODAS/PENTAD at the subsurface.


Massive? Bring both for the members to see them and make the comparisons.


Image
:uarrow: This depiction shows an actual DW Kelvin wave erupting in the EPAC.

Image
:uarrow: This shows the opposite.

PENTAD looks more realistic considering the non stop dateline and CPAC easterlies and the fact that the CPC shows Nino 3.4 near -0.9C.

Sea level heights over the nino regions also support it:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/6/22 update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12551 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 08, 2022 5:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Massive discrepancy between TAO and GODAS/PENTAD at the subsurface.


Massive? Bring both for the members to see them and make the comparisons.


https://i.imgur.com/kBeGIwH.png
:uarrow: This depiction shows an actual DW Kelvin wave erupting in the EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/SFwSkjd.png
:uarrow: This shows the opposite.

PENTAD looks more realistic considering the non stop dateline and CPAC easterlies and the fact that the CPC shows Nino 3.4 near -0.9C.

Sea level heights over the nino regions also support it:
https://i.imgur.com/EOL1kL2.png


Interesting. Thanks for posting the graphics.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June update= La Niña 52% / Neutral 46% / El Niño 2% in July thru September

#12552 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2022 8:21 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 June 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance).

During May, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. However, negative SST anomalies weakened during the past month, as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.6°C to -0.9°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) also weakened with values returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to at least ~75m depth from the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures continuing at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the east-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific and was weakly enhanced over parts of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. This is now in greater agreement with the forecast consensus this month, which also predicts La Niña to continue into the winter. However, it is clear that recent observed oceanic and atmospheric anomalies have weakened and this is anticipated to continue through the summer. Uncertainty remains over whether La Niña may transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Niña and a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. After this season, the forecast is for renewed cooling, with La Niña favored during the fall and early winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO: CPC June update= La Niña 54% / Neutral 43% / El Niño 3% for ASO

#12553 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 09, 2022 9:46 am

cycloneye wrote:[div]EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 June 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

<snip>

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

So there is a decent chance to transition towards neutral for JAS, i think that would easily kill the extreme ACE scenario some models are expecting.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June update= La Niña 54% / Neutral 43% / El Niño 3% for ASO

#12554 Postby SteveM » Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:25 am

skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

So there is a decent chance to transition towards neutral for JAS, i think that would easily kill the extreme ACE scenario some models are expecting.


I'm not sure, if SSTs stay only marginally above average then I agree, but cool-neutral ENSO in JAS is absolutely compatible with a hyperactive season. I think warm-neutral at this stage is very unlikely.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June update= La Niña 54% / Neutral 43% / El Niño 3% for ASO

#12555 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:30 am

skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 June 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance).

During May, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. However, negative SST anomalies weakened during the past month, as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.6°C to -0.9°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) also weakened with values returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to at least ~75m depth from the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures continuing at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the east-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific and was weakly enhanced over parts of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. This is now in greater agreement with the forecast consensus this month, which also predicts La Niña to continue into the winter. However, it is clear that recent observed oceanic and atmospheric anomalies have weakened and this is anticipated to continue through the summer. Uncertainty remains over whether La Niña may transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Niña and a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. After this season, the forecast is for renewed cooling, with La Niña favored during the fall and early winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


https://i.imgur.com/cx9try5.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

So there is a decent chance to transition towards neutral for JAS, i think that would easily kill the extreme ACE scenario some models are expecting.


For the Caribbean Weak La Niña or Neutral is active.
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ENSO: CPC June update= La Niña 52% / Neutral 46% / El Niño 2% for JAS

#12556 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:47 am

SteveM wrote:
skyline385 wrote: So there is a decent chance to transition towards neutral for JAS, i think that would easily kill the extreme ACE scenario some models are expecting.


I'm not sure, if SSTs stay only marginally above average then I agree, but cool-neutral ENSO in JAS is absolutely compatible with a hyperactive season. I think warm-neutral at this stage is very unlikely.

I don't doubt that the SSTs will be above average and that ONI will still remain negative until the end of the year. However from what i have seen in previous La Nina years, a transitioning year is typically capped in activity. I am obviously not a met but from what i have read, ENSO isn't just static but also slightly dynamic determined by the direction it is heading towards.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June update= La Niña 52% / Neutral 46% / El Niño 2% for JAS

#12557 Postby Teban54 » Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:59 am

skyline385 wrote:
SteveM wrote: I'm not sure, if SSTs stay only marginally above average then I agree, but cool-neutral ENSO in JAS is absolutely compatible with a hyperactive season. I think warm-neutral at this stage is very unlikely.

I don't doubt that the SSTs will be above average and that ONI will still remain negative until the end of the year. However from what i have seen in previous La Nina years, a transitioning year is typically capped in activity. I am obviously not a met but from what i have read, ENSO isn't just static but also slightly dynamic determined by the direction it is heading towards.

Not trying to nitpick, but from the historical ONI chart posted at the top of this page, both 2003 and 2004 were transitioning to warm neutral or El Nino, and both were solidly hyperactive years. Granted, the caveat is that 2004 was a Modoki, but that's enough for me to doubt the "capped in activity" argument.

2008 was similar, and while it was not hyperactive ACE-wise, it was still a very memorable and destructive year.
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ENSO: CPC June update= La Niña 52% / Neutral 46% / El Niño 2% for JAS

#12558 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:31 am

Teban54 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
SteveM wrote:
I'm not sure, if SSTs stay only marginally above average then I agree, but cool-neutral ENSO in JAS is absolutely compatible with a hyperactive season. I think warm-neutral at this stage is very unlikely.

I don't doubt that the SSTs will be above average and that ONI will still remain negative until the end of the year. However from what i have seen in previous La Nina years, a transitioning year is typically capped in activity. I am obviously not a met but from what i have read, ENSO isn't just static but also slightly dynamic determined by the direction it is heading towards.

Not trying to nitpick, but from the historical ONI chart posted at the top of this page, both 2003 and 2004 were transitioning to warm neutral or El Nino, and both were solidly hyperactive years. Granted, the caveat is that 2004 was a Modoki, but that's enough for me to doubt the "capped in activity" argument.

2008 was similar, and while it was not hyperactive ACE-wise, it was still a very memorable and destructive year.

2003 and 2004 were El Nino to Neutral throughout the year through, 2003 in particular cooled significantly during spring. I agree that they were transitioning towards warm during peak season but the base state was different.

2008 is a great example and while it was destructive it ended only at 142 ACE which is just above average. I have no doubt that we are headed for an above average season but i don't see an hyperactive one currently.

Some other examples are 1985, 1989 and 2012.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June update= La Niña 52% / Neutral 46% / El Niño 2% for JAS

#12559 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 09, 2022 2:28 pm

Even if Nino 3.4 goes up above -0.5C it will do so for a couple of weeks at best... the atmosphere remains strongly in a La Nina phase. The models that do show Nino 3.4 going up -0.5C only do so for a couple of weeks before showing cooling again.

The chances of ENSO as a WHOLE going to neutral for JAS is near zero. A week or two of Nino 3.4 reaching -0.4C or -0.3C does not mean neutral ENSO.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June update= La Niña 52% / Neutral 46% / El Niño 2% for JAS

#12560 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:13 pm

Nina is going to get a boost. Pretty solid standing wave.

Image
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