ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Wow, since 1999. Kingarabian , what do you think of the 1999 milestone?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1521146963416080387

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

It's impressive and even more so when you look at the subsurface and lack of very cool anomalies (less than -5C ). Just shows how strong the trades have been. Makes you wonder how much lower Nino 3.4 can get because the subsurface will only get cooler below the Central and Eastern Pacific basins.

Doesn't La Niña usually weaken during April/May? This is concerning...

Yeah the general consensus here thought we would see Nino 3.4 warming closer to -0.2C/-0.3C (including me) simply due to the impressive WPAC warm pool that's sending repeat downwelling KW's to the EPAC. In repeat La Nina years you should see spring time warming then a cool down during the summer/fall months. Never happened.

But yeah the CFS needs to get some props here. It called this a while back. It has performed well for 2 years now despite the SPB.

[Category5Kaiju]

5-year La Nina, here we come!

That would be really bad for the W/SW-CONUS.

Yeah, unfortunately this really long La Nina will likely exacerbate an already terrible drought, not to mention wildfires that would more easily happen in the W/SW CONUS. Lake Mead is already at its lowest level since 1971, and I would rather not see this La Nina lasting for an additional year. We really need an El Nino soon, but this La Nina is really stubborn lol

[AlphaToOmega]

5-year La Nina, here we come!

That would be really bad for the W/SW-CONUS.

As a result of the La Nina and -PDO, the entire western CONUS has been in a drought for over a year. We could be headed for a strong La Niña this year, so a fourth-year La Niña is still possible.

[zzh]

It's impressive and even more so when you look at the subsurface and lack of very cool anomalies (less than -5C ). Just shows how strong the trades have been. Makes you wonder how much lower Nino 3.4 can get because the subsurface will only get cooler below the Central and Eastern Pacific basins.

Doesn't La Niña usually weaken during April/May? This is concerning...

Yeah the general consensus here thought we would see Nino 3.4 warming closer to -0.2C/-0.3C (including me) simply due to the impressive WPAC warm pool that's sending repeat downwelling KW's to the EPAC. In repeat La Nina years you should see spring time warming then a cool down during the summer/fall months. Never happened.

But yeah the CFS needs to get some props here. It called this a while back. It has performed well for 2 years now despite the SPB.

I think the only time La Nina strengthened in the spring was in 1975.

[Kingarabian]

5-year La Nina, here we come!

That would be really bad for the W/SW-CONUS.

As a result of the La Nina and -PDO, the entire western CONUS has been in a drought for over a year. We could be headed for a strong La Niña this year, so a fourth-year La Niña is still possible.

https://i.postimg.cc/6pJ5ycVt/20201027-usdm.png

https://i.postimg.cc/vmXQ2dJZ/20210427-usdm.png

https://i.postimg.cc/qRRp95rX/20211026-usdm.png

https://i.postimg.cc/x8NndNcX/20220426-usdm.png

Per available climo it should reverse back to the mean. Quad La Nina is unprecedented since reliable record keeping began. I would monitor the SE Pacific and the NE Pacific starting in September->December 2022 for signs of a shift back to +ENSO in 2023.

[Yellow Evan]

5-year La Nina, here we come!

That would be really bad for the W/SW-CONUS.

As a result of the La Nina and -PDO, the entire western CONUS has been in a drought for over a year. We could be headed for a strong La Niña this year, so a fourth-year La Niña is still possible.

https://i.postimg.cc/6pJ5ycVt/20201027-usdm.png

https://i.postimg.cc/vmXQ2dJZ/20210427-usdm.png

https://i.postimg.cc/qRRp95rX/20211026-usdm.png

https://i.postimg.cc/x8NndNcX/20220426-usdm.png

No guarantee El Niño solves that at this point - the 21st century has been hit and miss in terms of busting West Coast drought. At this point, the drought in the west largely AGW driven in large part because warmer temperatures result in faster evapotranspiration.

[NotSparta]

5-year La Nina, here we come!

That would be really bad for the W/SW-CONUS.

As a result of the La Nina and -PDO, the entire western CONUS has been in a drought for over a year. We could be headed for a strong La Niña this year, so a fourth-year La Niña is still possible.

https://i.postimg.cc/6pJ5ycVt/20201027-usdm.png

https://i.postimg.cc/vmXQ2dJZ/20210427-usdm.png

https://i.postimg.cc/qRRp95rX/20211026-usdm.png

https://i.postimg.cc/x8NndNcX/20220426-usdm.png

I believe that's a usual -PDO/+AMO look. Hopefully at some point there's El Niño and an easing of the -PDO to improve the conditions out there

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.postimg.cc/x8NndNcX/20220426-usdm.png

 https://twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/1521249046676967424




INSANE that the wettest April ever just occurred here and yet and abnormal dryness still just extends like 50 m S of me.

[cycloneye]

The ONI went down to -1.0C for FMA. This is the 3rd time in the last 20 La Ninas that the Feb-Apr ONI is cooler than the Jan-Mar ONI.



https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

[Kingarabian]

SOi to the moon lol:


It might stay very positive for a few more days. Could be the highest SOI on record if gets past 26.

[Yellow Evan]

Is there a literal ridge over Tahiti or something?

[Kingarabian]

Is there a literal ridge over Tahiti or something?

Very strong Walker circulation. This past month or so, Darwin has been under a lot of cloud coverage/increased convection -> super imposing on the already low MSLP's there. Tahiti is normal from what I can see. This pattern will only reinforce the trade winds across the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

The trades continue.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1521887441296281606

[Category5Kaiju]

The trades continue.

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1521887441296281606

I'm quite doubtful that this La Nina would end easily though, cfv2 has been alarmingly accurate in predicting this in late 2021, and it seems to think that we'll remain in weak Nina territory at least for the rest of the year

[AlphaToOmega]

The trades continue.

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1521887441296281606

I'm quite doubtful that this La Nina would end easily though, cfv2 has been alarmingly accurate in predicting this in late 2021, and it seems to think that we'll remain in weak Nina territory at least for the rest of the year

We could realistically get a Strong La Nina; -ENSO conditions usually strengthen throughout the autumn and the winter, so Nino 3.4 SSTAs of -1.066 C now could easily turn into Nino 3.4 SSTAs of <-1.066 C.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF has cool neutral for ASO.

[skyline385]

ECMWF has cool neutral for ASO.

https://i.imgur.com/1sp2s5r.png

I am guessing there will still be lingering effects from the the strong La Nina even if we reach cool-neutral by ASO?

[JetFuel_SE]

ECMWF has cool neutral for ASO.

https://i.imgur.com/1sp2s5r.png

Pretty sure it's just the warm bias at play.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1521886024707756033




It's true a well timed WWB can flip ENSO to positive regardless of present conditions. But that's not happening this year with a strong La Nina background state. 1982 had a near neutral or negative SOI for the first half of that year. Not the case here. Seasons like 2006 and 2009 that developed El Nino's during May and June, had deeper thermoclines with the 26C and 27C isotherms pushing all the way into Peru. Certainly not the case here.

[AlphaToOmega]

Will this La Nina be a classic La Nina or a La Nina Modoki? Currently, the Nino 1+2 SSTA is slightly below that of the Nino 3.4 SSTA, which would suggest a classic La Nina, but the CFSv2, ECMWF, and CMC are all suggesting a La Nina Modoki.