ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12241 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:47 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:

Looking at values from the CPC, all those years generally had warmer OHC in December compared to December 2021. The exception was 2009. The reason is due to the current upwelling KW beneath the EPAC holding strong negative anomalies.

Also 2018 had the backing of a warm PDO and warm PMM.

2012 was supposed to be a +ENSO year but a strongly -PDO and -PMM eventually killed off the momentum.
https://i.imgur.com/fY70AP0.png


Also FWIW:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552925317791814/930643597563396096/averageensoni.png

https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1480981936319307777?s=21

Historically odds look okay for a Niño tbh, better than I thought they did. But at bare minimum the -PDO and +AMO and -SPMM should allow for the Niño to be west based if it occurs at all, especially if +PMM emerges.

Isn’t the AMO currently negative? After all, the subtropical North Atlantic is still warmer than the MDR.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12242 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:51 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Look at the downwelling Kelvin Wave around 160E that should make its way westward.

Yeah it should make it eastward but despite the downwelling KW being there, there's still a good amount of cool anomalies to overcome. The overall OHC values aren't that much warmer compared to past Nino years that came after double dip La Nina's.

We'll need another strong downwelling KW sometime in February to get a real chance at an El Nino for 2022.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12243 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:57 pm

Nina forcing is still present over the IO:
Image

But it could end soon since the MJO seems to be prepping to intensify over the Pacific by the end of the month:
Image
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12244 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:53 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Looking at values from the CPC, all those years generally had warmer OHC in December compared to December 2021. The exception was 2009. The reason is due to the current upwelling KW beneath the EPAC holding strong negative anomalies.

Also 2018 had the backing of a warm PDO and warm PMM.

2012 was supposed to be a +ENSO year but a strongly -PDO and -PMM eventually killed off the momentum.
https://i.imgur.com/fY70AP0.png


Also FWIW:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552925317791814/930643597563396096/averageensoni.png

https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1480981936319307777?s=21

Historically odds look okay for a Niño tbh, better than I thought they did. But at bare minimum the -PDO and +AMO and -SPMM should allow for the Niño to be west based if it occurs at all, especially if +PMM emerges.

Isn’t the AMO currently negative? After all, the subtropical North Atlantic is still warmer than the MDR.


Recent trend (since about 2015) has been near neutral -AMO during the winter and +AMO enhanced by WAM during the summer.
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Re: ENSO=CPC January update=For ASO=25% El Niño / 45% Neutral / 30% La Niña

#12245 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:45 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 January 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June 2022).

In December 2021, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were consistent with a mature La Niña [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the westernmost Niño-4 region, which warmed to -0.4°C at the end of the December, the other Niño indices were between -0.9°C and -1.4°C during the last week [Fig. 2]. Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened east of the Date Line [Fig. 3], reflecting the slow eastward movement of positive temperature anomalies, at depth, from the western into the central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures still dominated the eastern Pacific from ~200m to the surface. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies prevailed over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection persisted near Indonesia and the western Pacific, while suppressed convection remained over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a mature La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus this month favors the continuation of La Niña through March-May 2022, with a transition to ENSO-neutral occurring in April-June 2022 (51% chance). ENSO-neutral is then expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, though chances do not exceed 57% (for May-July 2022), which is consistent with the generally lower confidence forecasts made through the spring. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12246 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:29 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12247 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 15, 2022 4:58 pm

:uarrow: Good points. Also helps that this seems to be one of the most intense eruptions witnessed.

At this point it's becoming inevitable that we'll finally see a legit El Nino in either 2022 or 2023, although I'm still leaning on an event being more likely in 2023.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12248 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:14 pm

Something that should be taken into consideration here is that it's still Boreal winter. I don't think the eruption of Hunga Tonga would have as much of an effect on ENSO as it would during the Spring, which as we all know is a crucial landmark for any ENSO transition (hence why the Spring Predictability Barrier is a thing). Not saying the odds for +ENSO/El Niño aren't elevated this year (they are, as typical of years following second-year Niñas) but I think this eruption will probably have a negligible effect in the grand scheme of things.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12249 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:17 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/15/world/asia/tonga-volcano-tsunami.html

According to this NYT article (especially near the end), there is mention that we would need an eruption of at least VEI 6 (Pintatubo/Krakatoa strength) for the climate to actually respond, I'm personally unsure if this eruption of Hunga Tonga will be that strong, but we'll see.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12250 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:13 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12251 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:43 am


It is interesting that the WMO mean suggests that the IOD and the PDO will not be cooperating with a transition to +ENSO. Note the strongly -IOD/-PDO.

The combination of a warm Niño 1+2+3 and -AMM with a Niña-like -IOD/-PDO is rather bizarre. Many factors favour +ENSO but others won’t cooperate.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12252 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:53 am

Shell Mound wrote:

It is interesting that the WMO mean suggests that the IOD and the PDO will not be cooperating with a transition to +ENSO. Note the strongly -IOD/-PDO.

The combination of a warm Niño 1+2+3 and -AMM with a Niña-like -IOD/-PDO is rather bizarre. Many factors favour +ENSO but others won’t cooperate.

Yeah as it stands right now the PDO is not really conducive for a Niño, but at the same time we need to watch how this developing warm pool in the subsurface evolves into the Spring. some strong anomalies popping up now. If a decent series of WWB cause them to surface then the prospects of a Niño increase dramatically.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12253 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:37 pm

One thing going towards at least a west based Niño is the relative warmth of NPMM compared to the SPMM, which will relax trades in the CPAC and shift the ITCZ up.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12254 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:03 pm

JMA PDO:
2021-12 -1.9400.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12255 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:14 pm

NOAA December PDO= 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z -2.0 and that is warmer than the -2.52 of November.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12256 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:19 pm

Historically the PDO tends to warm during the winter months regardless of the present phase.

Looking ahead, Euro has sustained trades over the dateline to close out January. It continues to show trades relaxing over the EPAC. All the models except the GFS show the MJO attempting to intensify over the WPAC during the first week of February. So that's the next best chance for a WWB. If there's no WWB in February, the probabilities for an El Nino this year take a good hit.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12257 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:03 pm

Well at least this year isn't some kind of foregone conclusion again - decent chance of El Niño. Question now is whether the rather Niño hostile SST pattern changes into spring and how much of that warm pool makes it to the surface. Think we'll probably end up at at least warm neutral this summer but whether it can go on to El Niño or get stuck is still uncertain
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12258 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:09 pm

That warm pool is expanding pushing the cold one away. Let's watch this to see the evolution in the next few months.

Image

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12259 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:That warm pool is expanding pushing the cold one away. Let's watch this to see the evolution in the next few months.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif


Next warm pool needs to have stronger and wider positive anomalies for a shot at El Nino. Like a +7C somewhere in there.

CFS and Euro now in better agreement for weak trades to persist through January. Both reintensify trades to start February. But both models do show the MJO over the Pacific to begin February.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12260 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:28 pm

Recent Euro runs are trending towards the GFS solution in showing a weaker MJO pulse over the Pacific during the first week of February. This would mean a less chance for a decent WWB over the Pacific to help propel warm waters eastward.

Latest 45 day EPS shows an El Nino-ish rising air branch situating over the dateline by March though.
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