ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12901 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:49 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.3C / Niño 3 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at =0.4C

#12902 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:30 am

La Niña keeps losing it's grip on this week's CPC update.

Image

Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.3C / Niño 3 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at =0.4C

#12903 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:38 am



It's been too long, we need to get rid of the Curse of 2020 La Nina. We're long overdue for an El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.3C / Niño 3 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +0.4C

#12904 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:22 pm

I'm fairly confident that this La Nina is pretty much done. 2023 may or may not be the year an El Nino happens, we'll have to wait and see.

I will say that until we pass the SPB, I'm still going to have neutral conditions (especially warm neutral) as a potential option on the table; I think there's a bit of general bias in the wx community that tilts in favor of an "El Nino excitement," especially during a year like this that seems to be transitioning away from La Nina. Especially with years such as 2003, 2012, and 2017, all of which looked like they were surely headed toward El Nino...until they weren't. Hence, I'm containing my El Nino excitement for the next few months or so, however. :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.3C / Niño 3 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +0.4C

#12905 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:43 pm

^At least two consecutive WWBs before NHem summer is what will seal the deal IMO. I also remember 2017 not only has a lack of westerlies but also a nonexistent subsurface warmth. It's all just warmth at the surface that lingered for a few months. But I agree, the excitement for change from the wx community is real. :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12906 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:28 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12907 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:25 am


Yeah this is the issue with that free ECMWF graphic, its covering 15N to 15S compared to 5N to 5S.

Nevertheless, things are now looking better for El Nino this year compared to back in February.

Still need some key variables to flip and reinforcement of such conditions, but a lot of time left.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12908 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:51 am

Kingarabian , how are things looking in general as March is now here?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12909 Postby NotSparta » Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:13 am

cycloneye wrote:]Kingarabian [/color], how are things looking in general as March is now here?


Not Kingarabian but it doesn't look like El Niño is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory like last year. Trends in February are in favor of El Niño development rather than hindering it
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12910 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:38 am

NotSparta wrote:
cycloneye wrote:]Kingarabian [/color], how are things looking in general as March is now here?


Not Kingarabian but it doesn't look like El Niño is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory like last year. Trends in February are in favor of El Niño development rather than hindering it


The question is will be here lagging affects from La Niña across the Atlantic. The CFS says there surely could be.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12911 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:24 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12912 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:13 pm

The southern hemisphere cyclone season has been very active with ACE above average. Is that a sign that ENSO will eventually warm?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12913 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:The southern hemisphere cyclone season has been very active with ACE above average. Is that a sign that ENSO will eventually warm?

The SWIO usually favors La Nina years, but the SPAC has been more active lately. So maybe we're in a more neutral phase than the decaying La Nina?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12914 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:45 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12915 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian , how are things looking in general as March is now here?


It's still 50-50 between neutral (even a mild cool neutral) and El Nino. Reason why is because we don't know exactly what will happen in March and April and the SOI is still very positive. But a warm subsurface pool and relaxed trades so far helps a lot.

This MJO pulse is forecast to get strong but its mainly in phase 8 vs phase 6 and 7. So the WWB anomalies are not that impressive near the dateline. In the past 25 years, years that had El Nino had a much stronger phase 6 and 7 MJO from Jan to March compared to this year.

Also if the MJO does not enter the circle and goes back strong over the IO then El Nino odds become iffy again.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12916 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian , how are things looking in general as March is now here?


It's still 50-50 between neutral (even a mild cool neutral) and El Nino. Reason why is because we don't know exactly what will happen in March and April and the SOI is still very positive. But a warm subsurface pool and relaxed trades so far helps a lot.

This MJO pulse is forecast to get strong but its mainly in phase 8 vs phase 6 and 7. So the WWB anomalies are not that impressive near the dateline. In the past 25 years, years that had El Nino had a much stronger phase 6 and 7 MJO from Jan to March compared to this year.

Also if the MJO does not enter the circle and goes back strong over the IO then El Nino odds become iffy again.


Thank you for the answer. Let's see how things evolve in the next few weeks and months.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12917 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:26 am

Looks like we'll get the big March WWB with the MJO in amplitude over 7/8/1 phases to help kick start El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12918 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:29 pm

EPS 850mb zonal wind at 5N-5S has a strong DL trade burst by mid March.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12919 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Mar 05, 2023 3:01 am

Aside from the possible ENSO flip, I wonder if we're gonna see PDO flip as well. ENSO prediction can be very tricky but at least we are beginning to understand what factors make ENSO switch to negative or positive...however, we have little idea with PDO, we can only read if it's a positive or negative currently but there seems to be no way to predict if it's going to flip or stay the same after some time.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12920 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:56 am

dexterlabio wrote:Aside from the possible ENSO flip, I wonder if we're gonna see PDO flip as well. ENSO prediction can be very tricky but at least we are beginning to understand what factors make ENSO switch to negative or positive...however, we have little idea with PDO, we can only read if it's a positive or negative currently but there seems to be no way to predict if it's going to flip or stay the same after some time.


If El Nino is on the way it'll flip during the summer. But usually either the PDO or PMM signatures are much more positive preceding any El Nino.
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