ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO down to -1.92 / In April it was at -1.51

#12581 Postby hurricane2025 » Sat Jun 18, 2022 5:22 pm

Explain in details I’m not really good with the La Niña and El Niño stuff
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12582 Postby USTropics » Sat Jun 18, 2022 5:28 pm

Kingarabian wrote:The upcoming trade burst will be the start of the atmosphere stunting anymore +ENSO progression. Just shows how warm subsurface anomalies are wasted when the atmosphere does not respond.

Look how it's influencing the CFS:
https://i.imgur.com/nDXw8N0.gif

That's not a La Nina modoki look for ASO.


hurricane2025 wrote:Explain in details I’m not really good with the La Niña and El Niño stuff



Kingarabian is 100% correct, the current configuration is not allowing for ocean-atmosphere coupling that favors a transition to modoki or +ENSO. We need persistent trade wind charging (TWC) along the equator to substantiate the warm subsurface heat content. When we have positive TWC forcing and charging in the Pacific, particularly in the spring along the equatorial Pacific region, this generates consistent positive SSTa. On the flip side, when we have negative TWC forcing, this discharges the Pacific in spring and generates negative SSTa. That leads to the SSTa gradient advecting eastward (and upward) along the equatorial thermocline towards the eastern Pacific. This creates favorable conditions, but without proper ocean-atmosphere coupling, the feedback becomes stunted (like we're seeing now). During a fully coupled stage, warm SSTa in positive TWC scenarios are amplified with westerly wind anomalies (WWB events), which aides in El Nino transition.
Last edited by USTropics on Sat Jun 18, 2022 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO down to -1.92 / In April it was at -1.51

#12583 Postby hurricane2025 » Sat Jun 18, 2022 5:35 pm

So will still atleast be neutral during the heart of hurricane season
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Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO down to -1.92 / In April it was at -1.51

#12584 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Jun 18, 2022 5:41 pm

hurricane2025 wrote:So will still atleast be neutral during the heart of hurricane season


La Nina forcing is expected to bring us back into another La Nina during the heart of hurricane season, continuing throughout the winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/20/22 Weekly update= Niño 3.4 up to -0.6C

#12585 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:33 am

The CPC update has Niño 3.4 up to -0.6C.

Image

Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 6/20/22 Weekly update= Niño 3.4 up to -0.6C

#12586 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:51 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12587 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:05 pm

Latest CFS no longer takes Nino3.4 above -0.5C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12588 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:28 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12589 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:40 pm


About a week away from July. July trades almost never fail, especially in neutral ENSO years.

Edit: These trades were also forecast on this thread back in the spring.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12590 Postby WAcyclone » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:56 am

 https://twitter.com/NoonanJustin/status/1539152288006426624




Interesting tidbit from the BOM's ENSO discussion:

"While back-to-back La Niña events are not uncommon, and have occurred in approximately half of all past events since 1900, three in a row is less common and has only occurred three times since 1900: 1954–57, 1973–76, and 1998–2001."
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update=La Niña is over

#12591 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:10 am

:uarrow:
Australian Bureau of Meteorology declares 2021-22 La Nina over, is that only for the Southern Hemisphere?
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update=La Niña is over

#12592 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:59 am

Blown Away wrote::uarrow:
Australian Bureau of Meteorology declares 2021-22 La Nina over, is that only for the Southern Hemisphere?


ENSO affects both hemispheres, they just have a more stringent definition of El Nino/La Nina
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update=La Niña is over

#12593 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:56 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update=La Niña is over

#12594 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:02 pm

Soooo....La Nina or cool neutral?

Probably doesn't actually matter a ton, maybe. :)
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update=La Niña is over

#12595 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:20 pm

BOM has a different La Nina Nino 3.4 threshold compared to the CPC. So by their stricter standards (BOM wants -0.8C for La Nina/CPC says -0.5C is enough) it is over. By the CPC's standards, we were never out of a La Nina (at least currently). A big reason for the discrepancy between both agencies is that they use different methodologies and climatologies to obtain the SST values over the Nino regions.

So there will be confusion for the normal user when they see two different agencies say two different things.

This is where the ENS-ONI (Ensemble Oceanic NINO Index) maintained by Eric Webb, and MEI from PSL, comes into play. These index's measure ENSO by a bunch of different criteria, more than just the SST anomalies at Nino 3.4, along with different SST datasets. After all, ENSO is much more than simply the SST anomalies at Nino 3.4.

From PSL:
The MEI is a time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

April-May Value -1.7

From Eric Webb's ENS-ONI:
The Ensemble Oceanic NINO Index (ENS-ONI) is one of the longest running, real-time, instrumentally-based ENSO indices that has been developed to date, spanning from the mid 19th century to the present. The ENS ONI also arguably provides the most complete and up-to-date description of structural uncertainty amongst a multitude of SST reconstructions and reanalyses

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

March-April-May Value: -1.1

Both are firmly in moderate La Nina ranges.

Those numbers will go up to reflect the warming during June, but not by much. Per the latest Nino 3.4 trends, we're out of moderate La Nina levels and in a weak La Nina. Should fall back to moderate during the fall.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12596 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:55 am

CFS corrected to keep Nino 3.4 at La Nina levels for the rest of the year.
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12597 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:09 am

Subsfc is not that of a healthy Nina.

Image

That being said, the trades are back, and they're angry.

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12598 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:12 am

weeniepatrol wrote:Subsfc is not that of a healthy Nina.

https://i.imgur.com/3VlthPy.gif

That being said, the trades are back, and they're angry.

https://i.imgur.com/8R0qlqI.gif

https://i.imgur.com/VnudHjP.png

Remember, La Nina isn't always a cold upwelling KW moving east. Its as simple as strong trades cooling the surface and subsurface on the spot. Recent examples of this is 2017 and 2021. Or basically any 2nd year NIna.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12599 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:23 am

Kingarabian wrote:Remember, La Nina isn't always a cold upwelling KW moving east. Its as simple as strong trades cooling the surface and subsurface on the spot. Recent examples of this is 2017 and 2021. Or basically any 2nd year NIna.


Of course; well said. It just perplexes me given this Nina was near record strength only a couple months ago whilst embedded in a near-record negative PDO lol. If anything there's a very weak downwelling kw signature. Not gonna last long

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12600 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:35 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Remember, La Nina isn't always a cold upwelling KW moving east. Its as simple as strong trades cooling the surface and subsurface on the spot. Recent examples of this is 2017 and 2021. Or basically any 2nd year NIna.


Of course; well said. It just perplexes me given this Nina was near record strength only a couple months ago whilst embedded in a near-record negative PDO lol. If anything there's a very weak downwelling kw signature. Not gonna last long

https://i.imgur.com/r0EXxWo.png

https://i.imgur.com/yN1cNVO.gif


Yeah it's a sign that we should be getting ready for an El Nino next year. Although that's not a guarantee yet. That being said, those hovmollers have been the same for the past 2 and 1/2 years. Localized upwelling over the CPAC and EPAC. Occasional downwelling KW trying to make it to Peru but fails to erupt. Repeat.
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