ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13261 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 13, 2023 5:19 pm

Iceresistance wrote:90-Day SOI is now in the negatives. Daily SOI is on a 4 day streak of -20 or lower.


El Nino pattern is visible in the SPAC. Strong mid latitude systems passing near Tahiti.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13262 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun May 14, 2023 3:57 am

From La Niña in September 2022 to developing El Niño in May 2023.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13263 Postby dexterlabio » Sun May 14, 2023 4:21 am

Crashing SOI tells me that this brewing El Nino is turning into a coupled event (ocean+atmosphere)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13264 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 14, 2023 6:24 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13265 Postby jconsor » Sun May 14, 2023 8:52 am

I would recommend being wary/skeptical of MJO forecasts showing a shift of the main negative velocity potential cell (and thus a WWB) into the Eastern and Central Pacific. This has been a persistent model bias amongst multiple ensembles (both GEFS and EPS) since Apr.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657735372745449474




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657740534364995586




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657744706074292225


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Re: ENSO Updates

#13266 Postby jconsor » Sun May 14, 2023 10:00 am

Further discussion on the expected long-range MJO/Velocity Potential pattern for Jun and how it may hinder El Nino intensification/spreading of anomalously warm SSTs into the Central Pacific.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657753394419826695




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657755710329876483




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657756672515887104




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657761973277163522


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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13267 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 15, 2023 9:29 am

Niño 3.4 is up to +0.5C at the weekly update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13268 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 15, 2023 9:50 am

Through July, latest CFS shows the low level bias primarily focused in the far WPAC compared to the DL.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13269 Postby wxman57 » Mon May 15, 2023 11:02 am

With the cool PDO, there is a lot of quite cool water moving south down the west U.S. coast right toward the Nino 3.4 area. How is that going to moderate El Nino this season?
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13270 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 15, 2023 11:41 am

wxman57 wrote:With the cool PDO, there is a lot of quite cool water moving south down the west U.S. coast right toward the Nino 3.4 area. How is that going to moderate El Nino this season?

The EPAC is reliant on a +PDO/+PMM for a high ACE high TC count combo. I think the season will behave similar to 2009 but there's also a chance it doesn't reach that level of activity as the PDO rapidly warmed between May and June 2009 and we've yet to see a similar response.

Also the active EPAC = in-active Atlantic case probably won't apply this season -- considering what's happening locally in the Atlantic and the negating factors for the EPAC that are mentioned above.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13271 Postby zzzh » Mon May 15, 2023 1:21 pm

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West coast warms up while central subtropical Pacific cools down.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13272 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 15, 2023 5:42 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13273 Postby dexterlabio » Mon May 15, 2023 7:39 pm

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/RoVlQQ3.png
West coast warms up while central subtropical Pacific cools down.



Maybe the start of the PDO switching positive in response to the developing El Niño?
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13274 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 15, 2023 8:49 pm

:uarrow: yes but also due to the Rex block pattern off the west coast.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13275 Postby jconsor » Tue May 16, 2023 3:41 am

Thread discussing potential analog years based on moderate to strong east-weighted El Nino, -PDO, warm tropical Atlantic/Canary Current and Wet Sahel. The juxtaposition of relatively strong El Nino on the one hand and -PDO, very warm Atlantic and wet Sahel on the other hand (which generally don't go together with El Nino) is rather rare. Need to go pretty far back in time to find appropriate analogs IMHO:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1658097906266587137




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1658131985888411649




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1658133591484686336


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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.5C

#13276 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 16, 2023 10:34 am



If we had westerly anomalies in the CPAC instead of above average trades, and light trades instead of westerly anomalies in the far eastern Pacific, then Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 would easily warm.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13277 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 16, 2023 11:09 am

Things look prime for a strong El Niño with those numbers on May 16.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1658498302613045254


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Re: ENSO Updates

#13278 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 16, 2023 11:11 am

cycloneye wrote:Things look prime for a strong El Niño with those numbers on May 16.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1658498302613045254


Thanks to global warming these values probably aren't as impressive as it seems but it's still a pretty speedy start to things
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13279 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 16, 2023 11:22 am

Euro remains very bullish with the upcoming WWB, showing it persisting into at least early June. Pretty sure it's been the most aggressive with this scenario.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13280 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 17, 2023 4:23 pm

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