ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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Re: ENSO Updates
Holy Nina.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates
AlphaToOmega wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
Yeah such a hard rise in April is usually reserved for entrenched Ninas or really big ones. Seasonal variability tends to favor -SOI in April.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
Yeah such a hard rise in April is usually reserved for entrenched Ninas or really big ones. Seasonal variability tends to favor -SOI in April.
Honestly, I am extremely curious to see how this "entrenchment" of the La Nina will impact both EPAC and Atlantic hurricane seasons, particularly after the 2015 Super El Nino. This is the first time since 2011 or so that a La Nina never died during the spring.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Category5Kaiju wrote:Ntxw wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
Yeah such a hard rise in April is usually reserved for entrenched Ninas or really big ones. Seasonal variability tends to favor -SOI in April.
Honestly, I am extremely curious to see how this "entrenchment" of the La Nina will impact both EPAC and Atlantic hurricane seasons, particularly after the 2015 Super El Nino. This is the first time since 2011 or so that a La Nina never died during the spring.
2011 actually looked like it went neutral during the spring/early summer. You'd probably have to go back even further to like 2000 to find an example of a Niña that persisted throughout the spring and summer, and even then I doubt it was at the intensity it is at right now.
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Re: ENSO Updates
AlphaToOmega wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
I initially thought that Nino 3.4 would at least warm closer -0.3C ish. But that has failed to occur. This is despite the very impressive WPAC warm pool spawning a legit downwelling KW in December/January, that even erupted in the EPAC.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
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Re: ENSO Updates
dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
Don't think that has ever happened?
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Re: ENSO Updates
JetFuel_SE wrote:dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
Don't think that has ever happened?
Correct me if I'm wrong but somehow 1976 and 2001 are 4thyr La Niña events. They recorded more than 5 months of consecutive <-0.5C ONI.
Edit: I don't have time to recheck right now but there might be some inaccuracies in my recollection. 2001 could have been a cold neutral instead of La Niña, also 1986 seems to be borderline weak La Niña/cold neutral so you may want to add that year as 4peat La Niña as well.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
dexterlabio wrote:JetFuel_SE wrote:dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
Don't think that has ever happened?
Correct me if I'm wrong but somehow 1976 and 2001 are 4thyr La Niña events. They recorded more than 5 months of consecutive <-0.5C ONI.
Edit: I don't have time to recheck right now but there might be some inaccuracies in my recollection. 2001 could have been a cold neutral instead of La Niña, also 1986 seems to be borderline weak La Niña/cold neutral so you may want to add that year as 4peat La Niña as well.
1976 & 2001 were both La Niña, although neither lasted the entire year.
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Re: ENSO Updates
dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
Yeah would be interesting indeed. In my opinion though, if not a warm +ENSO state (particularly an El Niño), I would imagine that the coolest 2023 could be would be cool neutral (kind of like 2001 or 2013), although that does not mean historical standards can be broken and we see a 4th year La Niña, which would be absolutely unbelievable and mind-blowing. We’ll see though, but having a potential 8th consecutive above average and damaging Atlantic Hurricane season is the last thing I want lol
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Re: ENSO Updates
Foxfires wrote:dexterlabio wrote:JetFuel_SE wrote:Don't think that has ever happened?
Correct me if I'm wrong but somehow 1976 and 2001 are 4thyr La Niña events. They recorded more than 5 months of consecutive <-0.5C ONI.
Edit: I don't have time to recheck right now but there might be some inaccuracies in my recollection. 2001 could have been a cold neutral instead of La Niña, also 1986 seems to be borderline weak La Niña/cold neutral so you may want to add that year as 4peat La Niña as well.
https://i.imgur.com/93ozd9Q.png
https://i.imgur.com/SRi5b8R.png
1976 & 2001 were both La Niña, although neither lasted the entire year.
The 1975 and 2000 La Ninas extended into 1976 and 2001 but those years themselves didn't have the CPC required 5 tri-monthlies to qualify as La Nina years. Like the 2015 Super El Nino that extended into 2016 but 2016 was a La Nina year.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Talk about constructive interference...strong EWB in the Pacific coming up in correspondence with a strong IO WWB.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Wow, since 1999. Kingarabian , what do you think of the 1999 milestone?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1521146963416080387
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1521146963416080387
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:Wow, since 1999. Kingarabian , what do you think of the 1999 milestone?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1521146963416080387
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
It's impressive and even more so when you look at the subsurface and lack of very cool anomalies (less than -5C ). Just shows how strong the trades have been. Makes you wonder how much lower Nino 3.4 can get because the subsurface will only get cooler below the Central and Eastern Pacific basins.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:Wow, since 1999. Kingarabian , what do you think of the 1999 milestone?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1521146963416080387
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
It's impressive and even more so when you look at the subsurface and lack of very cool anomalies (less than -5C ). Just shows how strong the trades have been. Makes you wonder how much lower Nino 3.4 can get because the subsurface will only get cooler below the Central and Eastern Pacific basins.
Doesn't La Niña usually weaken during April/May? This is concerning...
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -1.1C / Coldest April since 1999
5-year La Nina, here we come!
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -1.1C / Coldest April since 1999
Category5Kaiju wrote:5-year La Nina, here we come!
That would be really bad for the W/SW-CONUS.
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