ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Unless we get another 2009 type El Nino that comes on super late in the spring period, the writing is on the wall for a 2022 El Nino. Yeah the models aren't reliable in this time period so we don't know what's going to happen in March, but that doesn't matter because we will see a month long February trade burst and not a WWB. An ideal situation for an El Nino was either a February WWB or simply relaxed trades. Not an uptick in trades.

To me this means:

1. La Nina atmospheric forcing is still in control despite the Nino regions eventually warming.
2. Likely upwelling favored and not downwelling for the next couple of months, a sensitive time for El Nino formation. So when this present downwelling KW is in the EPAC, it could be followed by a pool of cool waters.

It was tough anyway with a -PDO/-PMM regime.

The door for an El Niño has not closed just yet. It is not common, but there have been El Niño years that featured easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific. We are not going to know for sure the ENSO state of the 2022-2023 winter for a while.
https://i.postimg.cc/P5f9RbvG/Yg-NCc-D9d3k.png

It's a possibility, but IMO the PDO being warmer in early 2006 plus a considerably warmer +SPMM and a warmer NPMM in NDJ (per aos.wisc) at the same time, probably made a transition towards El Nino a lot easier. Also in 2006, the MJO spent almost half of February in the Pacific before quickly moving across the IO and back over the MC. The current MJO forecast by the model consensus is for the signal to be slower and stronger over phases 3 and 4 compared to what we saw in February 2006.

[cycloneye]

Good thread from Tyler.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1489402124534525954




 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1489403220132827136




 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1489403868882554881

[Kingarabian]

Most recent MJO forecasts by the models continues to show it lingering longer over the IO, showing phases 2 and 3 instead of mainly phases 3 and 4. It will take longer for the MJO to come out over the Pacific.

[AlphaToOmega]

It will be interesting to see how this develops. The CFSv2 is saying sayonara to any potential El Nino and thus is showing a La Nina continuing into next winter. The ECMWF has the ENSO at basically dead neutral at this point; but the ECMWF tends to have a warm bias for ENSO forecasts. Trends are currently looking very strong for -ENSO, but that could flip between now and the summer.

[cycloneye]

NMME for peak of season.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1490722545770930183




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1490723158193840130

[AlphaToOmega]

Comparing the NMME and the IMME ensemble forecasts

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1490697746734530561

[NotSparta]

Comparing the NMME and the IMME ensemble forecasts
https://i.postimg.cc/dtJ9CJgj/nino34-rescaling-ENSMEAN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/BvP53b14/nino34-rescaling-ENSMEAN.png

This is interesting. Seems that the GEOS5 has become less Niña-biased and so is skewing NMME less. Opposite with IMME because UKMO launches Niño 3.4 into space

[Kingarabian]

Comparing the NMME and the IMME ensemble forecasts
https://i.postimg.cc/dtJ9CJgj/nino34-rescaling-ENSMEAN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/BvP53b14/nino34-rescaling-ENSMEAN.png

This is interesting. Seems that the GEOS5 has become less Niña-biased and so is skewing NMME less. Opposite with IMME because UKMO launches Niño 3.4 into space

UKMO is this years NASA GOES5 but for El Nino.

[Yellow Evan]

Comparing the NMME and the IMME ensemble forecasts
https://i.postimg.cc/dtJ9CJgj/nino34-rescaling-ENSMEAN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/BvP53b14/nino34-rescaling-ENSMEAN.png

This is interesting. Seems that the GEOS5 has become less Niña-biased and so is skewing NMME less. Opposite with IMME because UKMO launches Niño 3.4 into space

UKMO is this years NASA GOES5 but for El Nino.

Or more appropriately XTRP lol.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1490697746734530561

I wouldn't say this is any sort of dip back to former La Nina levels. Perfectly normal for daily fluctuations to occur but the overall trend is for the Nino regions to warm past the neutral line. If there will be a triple La Nina, the fall back to La Nina levels probably wouldn't start until May.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1491131037388214274

[WAcyclone]

I'm not sure what is going on in that IMME chart but the most recent UKMO forecast looks very similar to the ECMWF. The new February UKMO forecast should be out in a couple days.

[Kingarabian]

This trade burst will likely be the strongest we've seen in the past 4-5 months. So IMO its not just a simple MJO IO passage trade enhancement. This MJO pass seems to be doing much more, and it's playing a big role in reinforcing the La Nina background state. You can see that on the CFS with the second dashed contour returning over the dateline.

[weeniepatrol]

This trade burst will likely be the strongest we've seen in the past 4-5 months. So IMO its not just a simple MJO IO passage trade enhancement. This MJO pass seems to be doing much more, and it's playing a big role in reinforcing the La Nina background state. You can see that on the CFS with the second dashed contour returning over the dateline.

https://i.imgur.com/LnY9jWV.png

Glad someone else finally sees it... lol from what everyone's been saying you'd think an el nino watch was coming next week

[AlphaToOmega]

If the CFSv2 forecasts verifies, things will be really tough for those wishing for an El Nino. The CFSv2 is showing consistent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific from now until late March. There would need to be strong westerly trade bursts in April and May to undo this pattern. Right now patterns look very strong for a La Nina this winter, but that could always change from now until this winter.

[Yellow Evan]

This trade burst will likely be the strongest we've seen in the past 4-5 months. So IMO its not just a simple MJO IO passage trade enhancement. This MJO pass seems to be doing much more, and it's playing a big role in reinforcing the La Nina background state. You can see that on the CFS with the second dashed contour returning over the dateline.

https://i.imgur.com/LnY9jWV.png

This sort of setup would probably yield a warm neutral by the end of the SPB if it were to hypothetically verify. February trade pattern is not favorable (that’s definitely a La Niña background state being enhanced by MJO over the IO) but mid-March and onwards would be enough to kill off the Niña. Historically warm neutrals are not terribly common (1993 and 2012 being the only ones in the satellite era) yet it feels like an interesting possibility this year and could result in relatively high activity in all 3 major NHEM basins this year. It could set up an El Niño down the line.

[weeniepatrol]

This trade burst will likely be the strongest we've seen in the past 4-5 months. So IMO its not just a simple MJO IO passage trade enhancement. This MJO pass seems to be doing much more, and it's playing a big role in reinforcing the La Nina background state. You can see that on the CFS with the second dashed contour returning over the dateline.

https://i.imgur.com/LnY9jWV.png

This sort of setup would probably yield a warm neutral by the end of the SPB if it were to hypothetically verify. February trade pattern is not favorable (that’s definitely a La Niña background state being enhanced by MJO over the IO) but mid-March and onwards would be enough to kill off the Niña. Historically warm neutrals are not terribly common (1993 and 2012 being the only ones in the satellite era) yet it feels like an interesting possibility this year and could result in relatively high activity in all 3 major NHEM basins this year. It could set up an El Niño down the line.

Man I'd love another year like 2018. Still can't believe how incredibly active every single basin was that year

[Kingarabian]

This trade burst will likely be the strongest we've seen in the past 4-5 months. So IMO its not just a simple MJO IO passage trade enhancement. This MJO pass seems to be doing much more, and it's playing a big role in reinforcing the La Nina background state. You can see that on the CFS with the second dashed contour returning over the dateline.

https://i.imgur.com/LnY9jWV.png

This sort of setup would probably yield a warm neutral by the end of the SPB if it were to hypothetically verify. February trade pattern is not favorable (that’s definitely a La Niña background state being enhanced by MJO over the IO) but mid-March and onwards would be enough to kill off the Niña. Historically warm neutrals are not terribly common (1993 and 2012 being the only ones in the satellite era) yet it feels like an interesting possibility this year and could result in relatively high activity in all 3 major NHEM basins this year. It could set up an El Niño down the line.

I don't think this long range setup favors much +ENSO because we need an actual WWB. Even seasons that were initially warm neutral through ASO had late spring time WWB's. At this range, the CFS usually has (false) big WWB's in the Pacific and all it's mustering is weaker than normal trades for short periods of time. It's super long range so things can easily change.

I think another big reason why the models (Euro and CFS) are holding off robust +ENSO forecasts despite their biases, is because the Atlantic is super warm right now which probably means a strong ASW that bleeds into the IO and a cold south eastern Pacific is not helping. Past 30 years, only 1991 and 2002 were able to have an El Nino despite a cold south Pacific during the spring although right now it's currently running significantly cooler than those years.

Ignoring the long range. next week will be mid February and we will then be closing on March. The models generally have good 850mb wind forecasts in the 2-3 week time frame. So if the last week of February the models do not show a WWB, +ENSO odds really take a beating.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think it's pretty evident that CANSIPS is leaning weaker on +ENSO by at least November of this year.