ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 8/29/22 Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to 0.9C
Past 2 weeks, looked like the warm pool was pushing east again. Just because there were some brief weak westerly anomalies near the dateline.
But big time dateline trade burst on the GFS coming up to continue this La Nina into the winter.
If the atmosphere were to flip to El Nino, we should see the SOI beginning to drop in negative territory by late September and October. To kickstart El Nino, we need to see westerly anomalies over the MC by November/December. That'll help open the door for a dateline WWB in January/February. The ocean has been reacting very well to any periods with relaxed trades, almost immediately building and sending warm subsurface to the east.
But big time dateline trade burst on the GFS coming up to continue this La Nina into the winter.
If the atmosphere were to flip to El Nino, we should see the SOI beginning to drop in negative territory by late September and October. To kickstart El Nino, we need to see westerly anomalies over the MC by November/December. That'll help open the door for a dateline WWB in January/February. The ocean has been reacting very well to any periods with relaxed trades, almost immediately building and sending warm subsurface to the east.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 8/29/22 Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- weeniepatrol
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Re: ENSO Updates
5 September weekly:
Nino 4: -1.1C
Nino 3.4: -0.8C
Nino 3: -0.4C
Nino 1+2: -0.4C
JJA trimonthly: -0.8C
Nino 4: -1.1C
Nino 3.4: -0.8C
Nino 3: -0.4C
Nino 1+2: -0.4C
JJA trimonthly: -0.8C
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
La Nina likely through 2023
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1567867981102718976
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1567155911218450432
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1567867981102718976
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1567155911218450432
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- weeniepatrol
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Re: ENSO Updates
????? July PDO was -2.86..... the 5th coolest monthly ever observed and the coolest since the 50s
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- weeniepatrol
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Re: ENSO Updates
Weekly Niño 3.4 came in at -0.9ºC.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
ENSO picture for 2023 remains murky.
There's signs the PDO and PMM are attempting to warm. The WPAC warm pool has been replenished. But the SOI remains very positive and strong trade burst on the way.
There's signs the PDO and PMM are attempting to warm. The WPAC warm pool has been replenished. But the SOI remains very positive and strong trade burst on the way.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
The way things look right now it's leaning towards +ENSO. If the SOI can somehow get to negative territory, it'll be for sure.
If the SOI remains this elevated through January then we're looking at another -ENSO/La Nina year.
If the SOI remains this elevated through January then we're looking at another -ENSO/La Nina year.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:The way things look right now it's leaning towards +ENSO. If the SOI can somehow get to negative territory, it'll be for sure.
If the SOI remains this elevated through January then we're looking at another -ENSO/La Nina year.
The daily SOI has jumped to +35, the La Nina is not going away anytime soon.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Iceresistance wrote:Kingarabian wrote:The way things look right now it's leaning towards +ENSO. If the SOI can somehow get to negative territory, it'll be for sure.
If the SOI remains this elevated through January then we're looking at another -ENSO/La Nina year.
The daily SOI has jumped to +35, the La Nina is not going away anytime soon.
It won't (potentially) drop till like November at the earliest. And I don't mean we need to see -8 on the 30 day, just something near +5 to slow the trades down.
A full SOI tank if there would be one, will probably occur around February.
That being said, there ATLEAST needs to be a weak WWB around January time for an ENSO flip.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ENSO Updates
It's still very early and we have yet to get through 2022, but I personally wouldn't be surprised if the ENSO regions attempt to warm but just fall short of reaching bona fide Nino levels, making us end up having warm neutral conditions and yet another above average (though not crazy above average, so something like 15/6/3) Atlantic season.
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
The La Niña is not going away anytime soon, and it's STRONG!
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1575847683822178306
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1575847683822178306
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ENSO Updates
Iceresistance wrote:The La Niña is not going away anytime soon, and it's STRONG!
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1575847683822178306?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Also note the "EPAC warm pool" offshore Mexico just north of Nino 1+2 is basically gone. I know some people believed earlier in the season that it was causing the atmosphere to be El Nino-like (I disagree and don't think it was true).
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: ENSO Updates
Extremely strong trade burst underway.
CFS shows relentless easterlies across the entire Pacific basin through October.
IMHO, this La Nina might become Strong to Super
CFS shows relentless easterlies across the entire Pacific basin through October.
IMHO, this La Nina might become Strong to Super
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Euro has a WPAC MJO with good amplitude. If it verifies, a WPAC WWB could be on the way. Will take a series of these events to flip ENSO, but it would be a head start.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ENSO Updates
Iceresistance wrote:The La Niña is not going away anytime soon, and it's STRONG!
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1575847683822178306?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
While I am not banking on it as there are signs that there will be an ENSO flip, it would be genuinely crazy to see a fourth year Nina in 2023.
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
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