ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1535956291503407104
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1535957117940772864
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1535957117940772864
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- skyline385
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Re: ENSO Updates
We might be looking at a good amount of warming between Nino 3 and 4 for the next week
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
There hasnt been a traditional upwelling KW from the WPAC->EPAC in more than a year. That hasnt stopped a 2nd and third year La Nina. Instead, persistent easterlies near the dateline and CPAC have created upwelling anomalies and moving them east.
Trades are getting stronger over the dateline and CPAC per the models so expect more subsurface negative anomalies in the next few months.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly Update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.7C
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.
What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ENSO Updates
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.
What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?
30%. 3.4 is about to start cooling again and sharply as well. Nino 1.2 is rapidly cooling and I believe 3.4 will soon follow. While they are only loosely correlated I still think it’s indicative.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ENSO Updates
InfernoFlameCat wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.
What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?
30%. 3.4 is about to start cooling again and sharply as well. Nino 1.2 is rapidly cooling and I believe 3.4 will soon follow. While they are only loosely correlated I still think it’s indicative.
So would you say moderate La Niña is most likely?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.
What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?
It'll be La Nina for ASO. The take away from today's update is that Nino 3.4 is warming slower compared to the CFS. Per the CPC's warming trends for Nino 3.4 in the last 2 weeks, we may not even get past -0.5C. Other agencies such as the BOM have Nino 3.4 @ -0.42C though.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 up to -07C.
What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?
It'll be La Nina for ASO. The take away from today's update is that Nino 3.4 is warming slower compared to the CFS. Per the CPC's warming trends for Nino 3.4 in the last 2 weeks, we may not even get past -0.5C. Other agencies such as the BOM have Nino 3.4 @ -0.3C though.
Why does the CFSv2 still show ENSO neutral for this winter? It is approaching summer, so we should be past the spring predictability barrier.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
AlphaToOmega wrote:Kingarabian wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:
What do you think the chances are that we see cool neutral in ASO?
It'll be La Nina for ASO. The take away from today's update is that Nino 3.4 is warming slower compared to the CFS. Per the CPC's warming trends for Nino 3.4 in the last 2 weeks, we may not even get past -0.5C. Other agencies such as the BOM have Nino 3.4 @ -0.3C though.
Why does the CFSv2 still show ENSO neutral for this winter? It is approaching summer, so we should be past the spring predictability barrier.
Latest CFS shows La Nina for OND. Then shows cool neutral for NDJ/DJF. That sounds about right if we're going with climo and expecting +ENSO forcing to return. MJO becomes active again during the fall.
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Re: ENSO Updates
CFS starting to back off on Nino 3.4 going above the La Nina threshold.
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Re: ENSO Updates
The SOI is consistently negative, yet the equatorial Pacific continues to warm.
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- Kingarabian
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Modoki La Niña?
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1538109177477963784
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1538128097941377025
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1538109177477963784
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1538128097941377025
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: You mean positive?
Yes
Still, this makes little sense
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
AlphaToOmega wrote:Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: You mean positive?
Yes
Still, this makes little sense
There's trades for days in CPAC which reflects off of a positive SOi very well.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
The upcoming trade burst will be the start of the atmosphere stunting anymore +ENSO progression. Just shows how warm subsurface anomalies are wasted when the atmosphere does not respond.
Look how it's influencing the CFS:
That's not a La Nina modoki look for ASO.
Look how it's influencing the CFS:
That's not a La Nina modoki look for ASO.
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- weeniepatrol
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
weeniepatrol wrote:May PDO came in at -1.92, down from -1.51 in April.
That is a lot in only a month.
https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO
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