ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13301 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 22, 2023 11:45 am

Mawar’s circulation will amplify westerlies in the NHEM deep tropics. Will help in +NPMM development at the very least.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13302 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 22, 2023 12:28 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I wonder what the PDO reading will be for the month of May.


Less negative but still negative. Waters off NW CONUS have warmed. Waters east of Japan are too warm, waters north of Hawaii are too warm, and waters SW of Baja are too cool.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13303 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 22, 2023 12:35 pm

Daily index still has PDO of -.8. Ridging off BC will keep the warmth there in place for a while but until the subtropical storm track gets active again it’s hard to see a full on reversal. It’ll probably reverse sometime next winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13304 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 22, 2023 4:47 pm

I think we'll see something like 2009 (NCEI version) where the PDO will pop positive just a few times near peak +ENSO. PDO is influenced by ENSO so the stronger/more coupled the event the greater the rise.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13305 Postby Iceresistance » Mon May 22, 2023 6:22 pm

That -SOI is something else, today’s value is at -40!
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Re: ENSO Updates: SOI index going down fast

#13306 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 23, 2023 7:51 am

The SOI is going down at a good clip and that is a big sign that the atmosphere may be coupeling with El Niño.

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Re: ENSO Updates: SOI index going down fast

#13307 Postby Iceresistance » Tue May 23, 2023 9:15 am

cycloneye wrote:The SOI is going down at a good clip and that is a big sign that the atmosphere may be coupeling with El Niño.

https://i.imgur.com/ZZVDs0F.jpg


Daily SOI at -61!?

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https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-05-23-9.14.11-AM.png
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Re: ENSO Updates: SOI index going down fast

#13308 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 23, 2023 9:20 am

Impressive SOI numbers. Nothing to suggest that these SOI numbers are skewered in anyway too.
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Re: ENSO Updates: SOI index going down fast

#13309 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 23, 2023 9:46 am

Yeah it appears we're starting to get atmospheric Niño coupling now. If an ENSO standing wave hasn't established itself yet I'd imagine it will soon.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13310 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 23, 2023 11:28 am

LarryWx wrote:Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.


Yesterday's was -43 and today's as already noted is -62, which is the lowest since 2/6/10 and 12th lowest since dailies started in June of 1991. The seasons since 1991-2 with the 11 lower SOI dailies were 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1997-8, and 1991-2. Of these five seasons, one was super strong Nino, two were strong Nino, and two were weak Nino. So all over the board in terms of El Niño strength.

Though today will end up the low of this stretch, the next two days will still be strong -SOIs (likely sub -25) before a further rise.
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Re: ENSO Updates: SOI index going down fast

#13311 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 23, 2023 11:53 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13312 Postby Iceresistance » Tue May 23, 2023 4:44 pm

LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.


Yesterday's was -43 and today's as already noted is -62, which is the lowest since 2/6/10 and 12th lowest since dailies started in June of 1991. The seasons since 1991-2 with the 11 lower SOI dailies were 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1997-8, and 1991-2. Of these five seasons, one was super strong Nino, two were strong Nino, and two were weak Nino. So all over the board in terms of El Niño strength.

Though today will end up the low of this stretch, the next two days will still be strong -SOIs (likely sub -25) before a further rise.

If you can remember, what was the lowest daily SOI ever? In the hundreds?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13313 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 23, 2023 6:19 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.


Yesterday's was -43 and today's as already noted is -62, which is the lowest since 2/6/10 and 12th lowest since dailies started in June of 1991. The seasons since 1991-2 with the 11 lower SOI dailies were 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1997-8, and 1991-2. Of these five seasons, one was super strong Nino, two were strong Nino, and two were weak Nino. So all over the board in terms of El Niño strength.

Though today will end up the low of this stretch, the next two days will still be strong -SOIs (likely sub -25) before a further rise.

If you can remember, what was the lowest daily SOI ever? In the hundreds?


I know of daily records only back to summer of 1991. But the lowest back just to then was still way down at -85.71 on 5/1/1997!

Now, monthlies go way back into the 1800s. Whereas the lowest monthly back to 1991 was only down to -29.5, it was way down near -39 in 5/1896! Also, they're were -38/-34 in 4-5/1905 and -31/-36 in 1-2/1983. With monthlies that low, I'd bet there were dailies even lower than -85.71 then.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13314 Postby LarryWx » Wed May 24, 2023 4:28 am

LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.


Yesterday's was -43 and today's as already noted is -62, which is the lowest since 2/6/10 and 12th lowest since dailies started in June of 1991. The seasons since 1991-2 with the 11 lower SOI dailies were 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1997-8, and 1991-2. Of these five seasons, one was super strong Nino, two were strong Nino, and two were weak Nino. So all over the board in terms of El Niño strength.

Though today will end up the low of this stretch, the next two days will still be strong -SOIs (likely sub -25) before a further rise.


 I was wrong about yesterday being the low of the stretch. Today's -65 was even lower than yesterday's -62! Today's -65 is the 7th lowest daily SOI on record (back to June of 1991). The only ones lower were five days in 1997-8 and one day in 2009-10 (2/5/2010). And keep in mind it is only May 24th, meaning the current Nino is just starting!

**Edit: Though nothing like the rarity now occurring, it now looks like there will be another strong -SOI dip this month with it likely centered on 5/31 near -34.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13315 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 25, 2023 6:38 am

We have still another very strong -SOI today with -45.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13316 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 25, 2023 11:22 am

:uarrow: During April 1983 when multiple TC’s passed close to Tahiti is when I’d wager the daily record was set.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13317 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 25, 2023 12:14 pm

These probably have to be some of the lowest SOI numbers on record without TC help.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13318 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu May 25, 2023 1:22 pm

Like many before, the devil is in the details with this ENSO event.

Interesting to see if predictions of a stronger El Niño verify considering some of the factors going against it: -PDO, warm Atlantic, as well as thinning subsurface warmth as pointed out by Mark Sudduth in a recent video. The MJO for now seems to be taking its sweet time, though in June I imagine it should be in position for the anticipated WWB to give this event another kick.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13319 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 25, 2023 5:24 pm

MJO has been over the Pacific for weeks and the subsurface has not been thining :uarrow:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13320 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu May 25, 2023 8:50 pm

Yeahhhh I wouldn't really call this "thinning". More like "holding steady" if anything.
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