ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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dexterlabio
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13001 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:This event IF it materializes will not be anything more than a +1C/+1.2C moderate event. Something similar to 2009. Similar PDO/PMM/SOI situation in 2009. Look at the past super El Nino's and the amount of sub surface OHC. Then look at the type of WWB's they had before the summer.


2009 was a moderate to strong event, wasn't it? And tbh it seems like this year is already ahead of that year, especially sub surface-wise.

Personally I don't see any reason yet to speculate a strong event a la 1997 or 2015, but if the forecasted MJO resurgence in the WPAC by April indeed becomes strong, I think the idea won't be too far-fetched. If I'm not mistaken the WWBs that got the 1997 event going occurred in April, the same time Category 5 typhoon Isa was spawned.

EDIT: Also adding 1972 to my argument because that year ended up strong despite -PDO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13002 Postby NotSparta » Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:This event IF it materializes will not be anything more than a +1C/+1.2C moderate event. Something similar to 2009. Similar PDO/PMM/SOI situation in 2009. Look at the past super El Nino's and the amount of sub surface OHC. Then look at the type of WWB's they had before the summer.


Yeah I think if an event is going to be truly upper echelon like a super Niño you can usually tell where things are going even this early on. Not quite seeing such strong indications this year, but something like 2009 isn't a stretch, I agree
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13003 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:01 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:This event IF it materializes will not be anything more than a +1C/+1.2C moderate event. Something similar to 2009. Similar PDO/PMM/SOI situation in 2009. Look at the past super El Nino's and the amount of sub surface OHC. Then look at the type of WWB's they had before the summer.


2009 was a moderate to strong event, wasn't it? And tbh it seems like this year is already ahead of that year, especially sub surface-wise.

Personally I don't see any reason yet to speculate a strong event a la 1997 or 2015, but if the forecasted MJO resurgence in the WPAC by April indeed becomes strong, I think the idea won't be too far-fetched. If I'm not mistaken the WWBs that got the 1997 event going occurred in April, the same time Category 5 typhoon Isa was spawned.

EDIT: Also adding 1972 to my argument because that year ended up strong despite -PDO.


Hmmm, that is interesting about having -PDO and still El Niño showed up.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13004 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:This event IF it materializes will not be anything more than a +1C/+1.2C moderate event. Something similar to 2009. Similar PDO/PMM/SOI situation in 2009. Look at the past super El Nino's and the amount of sub surface OHC. Then look at the type of WWB's they had before the summer.


2009 was a moderate to strong event, wasn't it? And tbh it seems like this year is already ahead of that year, especially sub surface-wise.

Personally I don't see any reason yet to speculate a strong event a la 1997 or 2015, but if the forecasted MJO resurgence in the WPAC by April indeed becomes strong, I think the idea won't be too far-fetched. If I'm not mistaken the WWBs that got the 1997 event going occurred in April, the same time Category 5 typhoon Isa was spawned.

EDIT: Also adding 1972 to my argument because that year ended up strong despite -PDO.


Hmmm, that is interesting about having -PDO and still El Niño showed up.


Do El Ninos with -PDO end up being less favorable for EPAC activity than El Ninos with +PDO?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13005 Postby NotSparta » Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:29 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:
2009 was a moderate to strong event, wasn't it? And tbh it seems like this year is already ahead of that year, especially sub surface-wise.

Personally I don't see any reason yet to speculate a strong event a la 1997 or 2015, but if the forecasted MJO resurgence in the WPAC by April indeed becomes strong, I think the idea won't be too far-fetched. If I'm not mistaken the WWBs that got the 1997 event going occurred in April, the same time Category 5 typhoon Isa was spawned.

EDIT: Also adding 1972 to my argument because that year ended up strong despite -PDO.


Hmmm, that is interesting about having -PDO and still El Niño showed up.


Do El Ninos with -PDO end up being less favorable for EPAC activity than El Ninos with +PDO?


I'd imagine so, means off-equatorial tropical EPAC SSTs are cooler
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13006 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:29 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:This event IF it materializes will not be anything more than a +1C/+1.2C moderate event. Something similar to 2009. Similar PDO/PMM/SOI situation in 2009. Look at the past super El Nino's and the amount of sub surface OHC. Then look at the type of WWB's they had before the summer.


2009 was a moderate to strong event, wasn't it? And tbh it seems like this year is already ahead of that year, especially sub surface-wise.

Personally I don't see any reason yet to speculate a strong event a la 1997 or 2015, but if the forecasted MJO resurgence in the WPAC by April indeed becomes strong, I think the idea won't be too far-fetched. If I'm not mistaken the WWBs that got the 1997 event going occurred in April, the same time Category 5 typhoon Isa was spawned.

EDIT: Also adding 1972 to my argument because that year ended up strong despite -PDO.


The MJO weakens as spring progresses. 1997 and 2015 had strong Feb-March MJOs near phases 6/7/8.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13007 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:58 pm

^Well yeah this year definitely lagging behind 1997 and 2015 at this point when it comes to WWBs. Especially 2015, if I'm not mistaken the huge sub surface warm pool from 2014 was almost completely gone entering January, but consecutive WWBs did the work.

Still, I couldn't help but wonder *what if* the MJO gets strong in Phase 6/7 going to 8 come April. I mean with that sub surface warmth in the west plus the coastal El Niño already in place, just imagine how rapid the warming could be with a strong push from the atmosphere.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13008 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Mar 28, 2023 10:03 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:
2009 was a moderate to strong event, wasn't it? And tbh it seems like this year is already ahead of that year, especially sub surface-wise.

Personally I don't see any reason yet to speculate a strong event a la 1997 or 2015, but if the forecasted MJO resurgence in the WPAC by April indeed becomes strong, I think the idea won't be too far-fetched. If I'm not mistaken the WWBs that got the 1997 event going occurred in April, the same time Category 5 typhoon Isa was spawned.

EDIT: Also adding 1972 to my argument because that year ended up strong despite -PDO.


Hmmm, that is interesting about having -PDO and still El Niño showed up.


Do El Ninos with -PDO end up being less favorable for EPAC activity than El Ninos with +PDO?


Looking at 1972, EPAC was described to have an "above-average" hurricane season but it doesn't look to be as impressive as its record-breaking seasons. Makes you think that -PDO sort of impeded its potential.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13009 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 29, 2023 1:34 am

dexterlabio wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Hmmm, that is interesting about having -PDO and still El Niño showed up.


Do El Ninos with -PDO end up being less favorable for EPAC activity than El Ninos with +PDO?


Looking at 1972, EPAC was described to have an "above-average" hurricane season but it doesn't look to be as impressive as its record-breaking seasons. Makes you think that -PDO sort of impeded its potential.


I mean yes and outside of 2015/18 most of the top ACE EPAC seasons happened in a neutral with a cold Atlantic and a warm subtropical Pacific. Of course, worth noting ACE and major counts pre-1990 or so should be taken with a grain of salt really anywhere outside of the Atlantic.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13010 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 29, 2023 1:38 am

Kingarabian wrote:This event IF it materializes will not be anything more than a +1C/+1.2C moderate event. Something similar to 2009. Similar PDO/PMM/SOI situation in 2009. Look at the past super El Nino's and the amount of sub surface OHC. Then look at the type of WWB's they had before the summer.


The counter to this is 1972 or 1965, which is similar in the metrics you mentioned to today (except for maybe SOI wise), though 1972 at least had a record cold Atlantic and cold IO to focus rising motion over the Pacific.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13011 Postby Cycles » Wed Mar 29, 2023 2:29 am

Image
GFS from M Ventrice site has a strong raging mjo signal atm, Not in the circle of death. Is it pure mjo or a mixed rossbywave?



Image
The forecast for the next quarter (March – May 2023) foresees higher probabilities of Neutral conditions, with 96%. These conditions would be maintained for at least half of the year. 2023, where an elnino could then be developed.

By August the above forecast plot is 50/50 either way, that's still 5 months away. Tho the longer the range the less likely the probs are to verify.


Those temps in enso region 1 and 2 are volatile as a rule of thumb. How the sst's over 3.4 unfold meeting threshold periods is what really matters with declarations as you all know.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13012 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:19 am

A glance of all the ENSO models show that there is no consensus on how strong El Niño may be by August, but with the SB now, things are not going to be clear for now. The mean of all of them is at +1.3C.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13013 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed Mar 29, 2023 9:44 am

cycloneye wrote:A glance of all the ENSO models show that there is no consensus on how strong El Niño may be by August, but with the SB now, things are not going to be clear for now. The mean of all of them is at +1.3C.

https://i.imgur.com/eVhXuX4.jpg

I'd personally ignore the BoM model tbh, must be some weird bias thing going on.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13014 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:49 am

Looking ahead, by mid April the CFS has a WWB over 120E in the next 14 days. But it keeps the trades going over the dateline with westerly anomalies in the EPAC. This model showed a strong dateline WWB last month for April. Since then it has pushed it back for May.

Euro keeps weak trades going near the dateline but then shows easterly anomalies building in the EPAC. So that could set up a dateline WWB by late April/early May.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13015 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 30, 2023 8:44 pm

Another factor that could keep a lid on the strengh of this possible El Nino are the very warm Atlantic SSTs. Could steal some rising motion from the Pacific. Similar to 2018.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13016 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 30, 2023 8:50 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Another factor that could keep a lid on the strengh of this possible El Nino are the very warm Atlantic SSTs. Could steal some rising motion from the Pacific. Similar to 2018.


Wow, that is very interesting. 2018=Florence, Michael.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13017 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:12 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Another factor that could keep a lid on the strengh of this possible El Nino are the very warm Atlantic SSTs. Could steal some rising motion from the Pacific. Similar to 2018.


Wasn't the Atlantic in 2018 anomalously cool in the tropics by the late August/early September timeframe though? Another S2K user shared a sst anomaly map of that time in the Atlantic indicators thread recently.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13018 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:19 pm

If the Pacific was much warmer, would that prevent the rising motion from shifting to the Atlantic?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13019 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:24 pm

dexterlabio wrote:If the Pacific was much warmer, would that prevent the rising motion from shifting to the Atlantic?


Yes. rising motion would gravitate towards Central America and the EPac and support tropical waves as they emerge into the EPac and not before

Of course, unless it's a big boy el Nino there will be periods where favorable conditions temporarily spread into the Atlantic anyways (especially if the MDR is warm). That's why we got that outbreak in 2018 for example. It will just spend more time than not in an unfavorable position for the Atlantic

When you consider the Africa of recent years and if this MDR warmth persists then it will take a decent el Nino to snuff out any waves of intraseasonal forcing that amplify over the Pacific before they can reach the Atlantic/Africa
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13020 Postby JetFuel_SE » Fri Mar 31, 2023 2:52 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Another factor that could keep a lid on the strengh of this possible El Nino are the very warm Atlantic SSTs. Could steal some rising motion from the Pacific. Similar to 2018.


Wasn't the Atlantic in 2018 anomalously cool in the tropics by the late August/early September timeframe though? Another S2K user shared a sst anomaly map of that time in the Atlantic indicators thread recently.

It had improved by then compared to May/June, but it was still a bit colder than normal. (same images as the other post)
Image
Image
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