ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12761 Postby zzzh » Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:06 pm

:uarrow: TS Ellie
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12762 Postby zzzh » Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:13 pm

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I feel like models are too aggressive in terms of transition to Nino given this nonstop EWB... Models might trend downward like they did this January.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12763 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:32 pm

I have a question. Does anybody know how exactly 1959-1962 featured 4 straight years with no La Nina or El Nino? That seems pretty remarkable imho
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12764 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Dec 25, 2022 10:12 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:Uhh, OK then

I'm sure some kind of Darwin low had to have skewed this, but nonetheless I've never seen daily readings in excess of +50. 30-day went from +4 to +17 in like three weeks..

https://i.imgur.com/LGCsJI7.png

Yeah like zzzh said, there's a TC near Darwin.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12765 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Dec 26, 2022 1:55 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I have a question. Does anybody know how exactly 1959-1962 featured 4 straight years with no La Nina or El Nino? That seems pretty remarkable imho

It's likely there was a La Nina nested between those years. Official records that far back aren't 100% precise, especially when we're talking about a 0.1/0.2 degrees difference between La Nina and neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12766 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Dec 26, 2022 3:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:I have a question. Does anybody know how exactly 1959-1962 featured 4 straight years with no La Nina or El Nino? That seems pretty remarkable imho

It's likely there was a La Nina nested between those years. Official records that far back aren't 100% precise, especially when we're talking about a 0.1/0.2 degrees difference between La Nina and neutral.


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1490412985856053248




Sure but ^ is also true. ENSO amplitude was low from the 30s to the 60s and high in the 80s to 00s. The high ENSO variability observed fairly recently isn’t the norm.
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC Weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.8C

#12767 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 27, 2022 9:40 am

This week's update by CPC has Niño 3.4 warming a little bit and is up to -0.8C.

Image

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Read the PDF.



.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12768 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 29, 2022 11:34 am

Big WPAC MJO hasnt shown up yet for January on the models. We'll see how it evolves in mid February.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12769 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 01, 2023 6:16 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12770 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:24 am

The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.

Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.

I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12771 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.

Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.

I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.


So would you say that it would be good odds to place on something such as cool neutral, where the atmosphere does just enough to allow us to leave La Nina but not enough to warm the Pacific to the point we have warm neutral (or El Nino for that matter?) At least, recent CFV2 runs seem to really like the idea of cool neutral though I'm not sure how reliable that might be.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12772 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:33 pm

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1610107863380156422




This is basically where I am.

1 WWB is what’s probably needed for +ENSO and 2 for El Niño. The modeled trade pattern isn’t even that bad for Nino prospects as the westerlies and rising motion near 120-130E favor enhanced convection which through positive feedbacks lead to warmer waters beneath the surface and relaxed trades favor less upwelling and warmer waters beneath the surface, which in the long term can contribute to the development of El Niño if the subsurface warmth makes it to the EPAC and surfaces there. What cannot happen is MJO can’t reenter the IO and linger there.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.7C

#12773 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 03, 2023 12:45 pm

Niño 3.4 warmed up to -0.7C in this week's update.

Image

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12774 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:10 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.

Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.

I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.


So would you say that it would be good odds to place on something such as cool neutral, where the atmosphere does just enough to allow us to leave La Nina but not enough to warm the Pacific to the point we have warm neutral (or El Nino for that matter?) At least, recent CFV2 runs seem to really like the idea of cool neutral though I'm not sure how reliable that might be.

I think the odds for a neutral ENSO are much higher than both El Nino or La Nina. But the type of neutral, warm or cool, will still have big ramifications on the hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12775 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:17 pm

Kingarabian wrote:The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.

Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.

I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.


The way there have been continuous EWBs but Nino3.4 is no longer cooling down below -1C...I agree that getting an El Niño is still a long shot, with the failure to have significant WWBs in the Pacific. However, I tend to agree as well that we need only one potent WWB event to flip the ENSO state to the positive side.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12776 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:51 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:The subsurface is fools gold unfortunately. The on going strong trade burst will lead to pretty good upwelling from February to the beginning of March, so it should look less impressive by then.

Usually if theres an incoming El Nino, the field would be set to welcome it. Non of the key variables that support El Nino are in favor.

I would say theres now less than a 50% chance of +ENSO at this point because the models do not show an active MJO. We need a big MJO event in the WPAC by mid February. Any future WWB must be as close to the dateline as possible. Even in weak +ENSO events, the MJO is always stronger than normal in the WPAC. If that fails to occur, then the best next chance would be a late spring WWB in May... but at that point the odds would be heavily stacked against any type of +ENSO.


The way there have been continuous EWBs but Nino3.4 is no longer cooling down below -1C...I agree that getting an El Niño is still a long shot, with the failure to have significant WWBs in the Pacific. However, I tend to agree as well that we need only one potent WWB event to flip the ENSO state to the positive side.


I agree 1 WWB flips everything. But how do we get that WWB without a favorable background state (PDO/PMM, low level bias).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12777 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:34 am

SOI index still stupidly positive, as of 1/5/2022, no negative daily reading since December 13th, 2022.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12779 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:40 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12780 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 06, 2023 6:52 pm

PDO is still solidly negative. Don't think we see a very strong or super Nino (of course) this coming year. NPAC warm pool resembles something like early 2014, maybe we see a headfake-Nino where the atmosphere will try but the Ocean says not yet. Or a late blooming one like that year which was designated as a Nino after the fact at the time.
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