ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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dexterlabio
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12781 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Jan 07, 2023 5:47 am

2014 was unique in a way that early in that year there was a very impressive subsurface warm pool in the far west Pacific that made everyone expect that a super El Nino was coming, but later that year the atmosphere was simply "not cooperating" that it was almost an El Nino bust." The super El Nino happened a year later.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12782 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:53 am

dexterlabio wrote:2014 was unique in a way that early in that year there was a very impressive subsurface warm pool in the far west Pacific that made everyone expect that a super El Nino was coming, but later that year the atmosphere was simply "not cooperating" that it was almost an El Nino bust." The super El Nino happened a year later.


If there was no Nino that year, then why was the Atlantic so inactive?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12783 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:14 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:2014 was unique in a way that early in that year there was a very impressive subsurface warm pool in the far west Pacific that made everyone expect that a super El Nino was coming, but later that year the atmosphere was simply "not cooperating" that it was almost an El Nino bust." The super El Nino happened a year later.


If there was no Nino that year, then why was the Atlantic so inactive?


The ONI for 2014 was adjusted to show five consecutive >+0.5C trimonthlies that made the El Nino that year official. I forgot the reason why it got adjusted, but originally if I remember correctly 2014 almost did not count as an El Nino year. For me though, 2014 was a textbook El Nino year. :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12784 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:26 am

dexterlabio wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:2014 was unique in a way that early in that year there was a very impressive subsurface warm pool in the far west Pacific that made everyone expect that a super El Nino was coming, but later that year the atmosphere was simply "not cooperating" that it was almost an El Nino bust." The super El Nino happened a year later.


If there was no Nino that year, then why was the Atlantic so inactive?


The ONI for 2014 was adjusted to show five consecutive >+0.5C trimonthlies that made the El Nino that year official. I forgot the reason why it got adjusted, but originally if I remember correctly 2014 almost did not count as an El Nino year. For me though, 2014 was a textbook El Nino year. :lol:


At the time it wasn't sure if it was going to get the five consecutive trimonthlies. It did make it into 2015 and arguably became the early extension to the super El Nino. Regardless though 2014 was a big transition year coming out of -PDO to +PDO and the movement towards a longer duration +ENSO event.

Now to be clear I'm not saying this year will be comparable to 2014, just we may see the ups and down of one trying.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12785 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:31 am

One thing to watch is the area along the northern/northwest Australian coast. There's been cyclone activity there so may be temporary but if it bleeds in to the MC region, and not of seasonal variability variety, then El Nino chances may increase.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12786 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 08, 2023 4:56 pm

If that huge warm pool moves east and goes to the surface, game over and El Niño would come, but is too early to get to conclusions especially with the SB comming soon.

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.8C

#12787 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 09, 2023 9:13 am

CPC weekly update has niño 3.4 cooling down to -0.8C.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12788 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 09, 2023 10:54 am

cycloneye wrote:If that huge warm pool moves east and goes to the surface, game over and El Niño would come, but is too early to get to conclusions especially with the SB comming soon.

https://i.imgur.com/x0NvTby.gif


That warm pool has always been there though; in order for an El Nino to happen, you need that warm pool to extend east but also be continually forced in that direction. Otherwise, you'll just get a decent warm-up but be unable to cross that critical +0.5 trimonthly Nino threshold (in other words, it's almost inevitable, imho, that we see a warmup and exit La Nina, but if there's not enough strong forcing, then we might just end up in some sort of neutral limbo this summer going into autumn).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12789 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:14 am

Previous CFS forecasts at depth were for the warm pool to be at 120W already. Its still stuck near the dateline.

Latest CFS Nino 3.4 isn't showing an earlier spring El Nino. Now its showing El Nino developing by July. Which is possible as we saw in 2006 and 2018, but those El Nino episodes are actually rare.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12790 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:21 am

Interesting to note that in spite of the La Niña, California has been experiencing a very wet winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12791 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:22 am

dexterlabio wrote:Interesting to note that in spite of the La Niña, California has been experiencing a very wet winter.


And it's not just that; here in Arizona we've been experiencing a pretty warm winter (unlike the winter of 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, when we saw quite a bit of cold temperatures). Additionally, the La Nina we're in now hasn't exactly behaved like a standard La Nina, especially if you look at what happened in the Atlantic and EPAC hurricane seasons back in 2022.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12792 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:30 pm

dexterlabio wrote:Interesting to note that in spite of the La Niña, California has been experiencing a very wet winter.


This happens once in a while where the west receives a really wet stretch of rain despite a Niña. 2001-02 and 2016-17 were similar.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update=51% of having El Niño for ASO

#12793 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:56 am

The January CPC update has el Niño up to 51% for ASO.

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update=51% of having El Niño for ASO

#12794 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:19 am

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update=51% of having El Niño by ASO

#12795 Postby hurricane2025 » Thu Jan 12, 2023 12:58 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update=51% of having El Niño by ASO

#12796 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 12, 2023 1:04 pm

This paragraph from the Enso Blog says all you need to know about how the next few months will be on the ENSO front.

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update=51% of having El Niño for ASO

#12797 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:35 am


The ~10% chance for a quadruple-dip La Niña is just silly honestly, but with how the global climate is being disrupted, it wouldn't surprise me if prolonged La Niña events becomes the new norm.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12798 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:09 pm

Well, the MJO appears to not wanna go back to the WPAC, which is where it'd need to be for significant WWBs in the equatorial Pacific iirc.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12799 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:19 pm

That doesn't look like a significant WWB in the Pacific in mid-February, I'm really starting to question if we'll even see an El Niño this year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12800 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:54 am

Still too soon to declare that we will or will not have an El Nino. Just 1 WWB in the next 4 months will bring us somewhat close atp.
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